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Projecting Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age with the CBDX Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Dowd

    (Durham Business School, Durham University, Durham DHL 3LB, UK)

  • David Blake

    (Pensions Institute, City University of London, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK)

Abstract

We introduce a simple extension to the CBDX model to project cohort mortality rates to extreme old age. The proposed approach fits a polynomial to a sample of age effects, uses the fitted polynomial to project the age effects to ages beyond the sample age range, then splices the sample and projected age effects, and uses the spliced age effects to obtain mortality rates for the higher ages. The proposed approach can be used to value financial instruments such as life annuities that depend on projections of extreme old age mortality rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Dowd & David Blake, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age with the CBDX Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:12-218:d:741140
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Hunt & David Blake, 2014. "A General Procedure for Constructing Mortality Models," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 116-138.
    2. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Currie, Iain D., 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting the Mortality of the Very Old," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 419-427, November.
    4. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718, December.
    5. Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Blake, David, 2020. "CBDX: a workhorse mortality model from the Cairns–Blake–Dowd family," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 445-460, September.
    6. Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Andrew J. G. Cairns, 2016. "The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-7, July.
    7. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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