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Quadratic stochastic intensity and prospective mortality tables

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  • Gourieroux, C.
  • Monfort, A.

Abstract

We consider a quadratic stochastic intensity model with a Gaussian autoregressive factor, derive explicit formulas for predictive mortality tables and recursive updating formulas are also provided. We also explain how to use appropriately the Kalman filter to estimate the parameters of the model and to approximate the values of the underlying factor. This methodology is applied to French human mortality tables.

Suggested Citation

  • Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2008. "Quadratic stochastic intensity and prospective mortality tables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 174-184, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:43:y:2008:i:1:p:174-184
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    2. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    3. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2011. "Approximate Derivative Pricing for Large Classes of Homogeneous Assets with Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 237-280, Spring.
    4. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    5. Christian Gourieroux & Yang Lu, 2013. "Long Term Care and Longevity," Working Papers 2013-16, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Stéphane Loisel, 2010. "Understanding, Modeling and Managing Longevity Risk: Key Issues and Main Challenges," Post-Print hal-00517902, HAL.
    7. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2015. "A Quadratic Kalman Filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 43-56.
    8. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.

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