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The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model

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  • Pascariu, Marius D.
  • Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
  • Vaupel, James W.

Abstract

Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee–Carter approach and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascariu, Marius D. & Canudas-Romo, Vladimir & Vaupel, James W., 2018. "The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 339-350.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:339-350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.011
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    7. Marius D. Pascariu & Ugofilippo Basellini & José Manuel Aburto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2020. "The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Anne G. Balter & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jesper Rangvid, 2019. "The move towards riskier pensions: The importance of mortality," CREATES Research Papers 2019-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Jesús-Adrián Álvarez & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard, 2020. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," CREATES Research Papers 2020-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Malene Kallestrup‐Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2020. "Insight into stagnating adult life expectancy: Analyzing cause of death patterns across socioeconomic groups," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1728-1743, December.
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