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Modeling the demand for long-term care services under uncertain information

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  • Teresa Cardoso
  • Mónica Oliveira
  • Ana Barbosa-Póvoa
  • Stefan Nickel

Abstract

Developing a network of long-term care (LTC) services is currently a health policy priority in many countries, in particular in countries with a health system based on a National Health Service (NHS) structure. Developing such a network requires proper planning and basic information on future demand and utilization of LTC services. Unfortunately, this information is often not available and the development of methods to properly predict demand is therefore essential. The current study proposes a simulation model based on a Markov cycle tree structure to predict annual demand for LTC services so as to inform the planning of these services at the small-area level in the coming years. The simulation model is multiservice, as it allows for predicting the annual number of individuals in need of each type of LTC service (formal and informal home-based, ambulatory and institutional services), the resources/services that are required to satisfy those needs (informal caregivers, domiciliary visits, consultations and beds) and the associated costs. The model developed was validated using past data and key international figures and applied to Portugal at the Lisbon borough level for the 2010–2015 period. Given data imperfections and uncertainties related to predicting future LTC demand, uncertainty was modeled through an integrated approach that combines scenario analysis with probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that the model provides information critical for informing the planning and financing of LTC networks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Cardoso & Mónica Oliveira & Ana Barbosa-Póvoa & Stefan Nickel, 2012. "Modeling the demand for long-term care services under uncertain information," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-412, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:15:y:2012:i:4:p:385-412
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-012-9204-0
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    2. Paula Cristina Albuquerque, 2020. "Need, unmet need, and shortage in the long-term care market," Working Papers Department of Economics 2020/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Mielczarek, Bożena & Zabawa, Jacek, 2021. "Modelling demographic changes using simulation: Supportive analyses for socioeconomic studies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Iwański Rafał, 2024. "Growth prospects for the silver economy in the market segment of residential care services provided to dependent elderly people," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 165-186.
    5. Cardoso, Teresa & Oliveira, Mónica Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Nickel, Stefan, 2016. "Moving towards an equitable long-term care network: A multi-objective and multi-period planning approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 69-85.
    6. Mohammadi Bidhandi, Hadi & Patrick, Jonathan & Noghani, Pedram & Varshoei, Peyman, 2019. "Capacity planning for a network of community health services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 266-279.
    7. Cardoso, Teresa & Oliveira, Mónica Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Nickel, Stefan, 2015. "An integrated approach for planning a long-term care network with uncertainty, strategic policy and equity considerations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 321-334.
    8. Paul Intrevado & Vedat Verter & Lucie Tremblay, 2019. "Patient-centric design of long-term care networks," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 376-390, June.
    9. Amorim-Lopes, Mário & Oliveira, Mónica & Raposo, Mariana & Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa & Alvarenga, António & Barbas, Marta & Alves, Marco & Vieira, Ana & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana, 2021. "Enhancing optimization planning models for health human resources management with foresight," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Hyun Ju Kim & Jung Eun Choi & Mi So Kim & Su Jin Kim & Sung Ok Chang, 2016. "Nurses’ clinical decision‐making for preserving nursing home residents’ remaining abilities," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(9-10), pages 1326-1335, May.
    11. Smith, Samantha & Walsh, Brendan & Wren, Maev-Ann & Barron, Steve & Morgenroth, Edgar & Eighan, James & Lyons, Seán, 2019. "Geographic profile of healthcare needs and non-acute healthcare supply in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS90.
    12. Gouveia, Catarina & Kalakou, Sofia & Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa, 2023. "How to forecast mental healthcare needs? Distinguishing between perceived and unperceived needs and their impact on capacity requirements," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    13. Kristian Ringsby Odberg & Britt Sætre Hansen & Karina Aase & Sigrid Wangensteen, 2018. "Medication administration and interruptions in nursing homes: A qualitative observational study," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5-6), pages 1113-1124, March.

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