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Reverse mortgage pricing and risk analysis allowing for idiosyncratic house price risk and longevity risk

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  • Shao, Adam W.
  • Hanewald, Katja
  • Sherris, Michael

Abstract

Reverse mortgages provide an alternative source of funding for retirement income and health care costs. The two main risks that reverse mortgage providers face are house price risk and longevity risk. Recent real estate literature has shown that the idiosyncratic component of house price risk is large. We analyse the combined impact of house price risk and longevity risk on the pricing and risk profile of reverse mortgage loans in a stochastic multi-period model. The model incorporates a new hybrid hedonic–repeat-sales pricing model for houses with specific characteristics, as well as a stochastic mortality model for mortality improvements along the cohort direction (the Wills–Sherris model). Our results show that pricing based on an aggregate house price index does not accurately assess the risks underwritten by reverse mortgage lenders, and that failing to take into account cohort trends in mortality improvements substantially underestimates the longevity risk involved in reverse mortgage loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Shao, Adam W. & Hanewald, Katja & Sherris, Michael, 2015. "Reverse mortgage pricing and risk analysis allowing for idiosyncratic house price risk and longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 76-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:63:y:2015:i:c:p:76-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.03.026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity release products; Idiosyncratic house price risk; Stochastic mortality; Wills–Sherris mortality model; Longevity risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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