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Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

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  • Geng Niu
  • Bertrand Melenberg

Abstract

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

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  • Geng Niu & Bertrand Melenberg, 2014. "Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1755-1773, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:5:p:1755-1773
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-014-0328-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lydia Dutton & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Malgorzata Seklecka, 2020. "The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 533-550, April.
    3. Norkhairunnisa Redzwan & Rozita Ramli, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    4. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2020. "A more meaningful parameterization of the Lee–Carter model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Jos'e A. Tapia Granados & Edward L. Ionides, 2024. "Income, health, and cointegration," Papers 2407.15755, arXiv.org.
    6. Boonen, Tim J. & De Waegenaere, Anja & Norde, Henk, 2017. "Redistribution of longevity risk: The effect of heterogeneous mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-188.
    7. Beáta Gavurová & Tatiana Vagašová, 2016. "Regional differences of standardised mortality rates for ischemic heart diseases in the Slovak Republic for the period 1996–2013 in the context of income inequality," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Katrien Antonio & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Wilbert Ouburg, 2015. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations," Working Papers Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven 485564, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven.
    9. Beáta Gavurová & Viliam Kováč & Tatiana Vagašová, 2017. "Standardised mortality rate for cerebrovascular diseases in the Slovak Republic from 1996 to 2013 in the context of income inequalities and its international comparison," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Giuseppina Bozzo & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2021. "Longevity risk and economic growth in sub-populations: evidence from Italy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 101-115, June.
    11. Tim J. Boonen & Hong Li, 2017. "Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(5), pages 1921-1946, October.
    12. Kyran Cupido & Petar Jevtić & Tim J. Boonen, 2024. "Space, mortality, and economic growth," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1321-1337, August.
    13. Jorge M. Uribe & Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillen, 2018. "Trends in the Quantiles of the Life Table Survivorship Function," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 793-817, December.
    14. Domenico Giovanni & Arturo Leccadito & Marco Pirra, 2021. "On the determinants of data breaches: A cointegration analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 141-160, June.
    15. Wang, Pengjie & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vahid, Farshid, 2023. "Multi-population mortality projection: The augmented common factor model with structural breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 450-469.
    16. Jacie Jia Liu, 2021. "A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.

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