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Managing longevity and disability risks in life annuities with long term care

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  • Levantesi, Susanna
  • Menzietti, Massimiliano

Abstract

The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it develops a model for risk assessment in a portfolio of life annuities with long term care benefits. These products are usually represented by a Markovian Multi-State model and are affected by both longevity and disability risks. Here, a stochastic projection model is proposed in order to represent the future evolution of mortality and disability transition intensities. Data from the Italian National Institute of Social Security (INPS) and from Human Mortality Database (HMD) are used to estimate the model parameters. Secondly, it investigates the solvency in a portfolio of enhanced pensions. To this aim a risk model based on the portfolio risk reserve is proposed and different rules to calculate solvency capital requirements for life underwriting risk are examined. Such rules are then compared with the standard formula proposed by the Solvency II project.

Suggested Citation

  • Levantesi, Susanna & Menzietti, Massimiliano, 2012. "Managing longevity and disability risks in life annuities with long term care," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 391-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:50:y:2012:i:3:p:391-401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guibert, Quentin & Planchet, Frédéric, 2018. "Non-parametric inference of transition probabilities based on Aalen–Johansen integral estimators for acyclic multi-state models: application to LTC insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-36.
    2. Fuino, Michel & Wagner, Joël, 2018. "Long-term care models and dependence probability tables by acuity level: New empirical evidence from Switzerland," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 51-70.
    3. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    4. Martin Eling & Omid Ghavibazoo, 2019. "Research on long-term care insurance: status quo and directions for future research," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 303-356, April.
    5. Chen, An & Fuino, Michel & Sehner, Thorsten & Wagner, Joël, 2022. "Valuation of long-term care options embedded in life annuities," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 68-94, March.
    6. Franca Glenzer & Bertrand Achou, 2019. "Annuities, long-term care insurance, and insurer solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 252-276, April.
    7. Tomas, Julien & Planchet, Frédéric, 2013. "Multidimensional smoothing by adaptive local kernel-weighted log-likelihood: Application to long-term care insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 573-589.
    8. Djehiche, Boualem & Löfdahl, Björn, 2014. "Risk aggregation and stochastic claims reserving in disability insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-108.
    9. Boumezoued, Alexandre & Karoui, Nicole El & Loisel, Stéphane, 2017. "Measuring mortality heterogeneity with multi-state models and interval-censored data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-82.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markovian multi-state model; Longevity risk; Disability risk; Solvency II; Internal models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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