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Gerhard Rünstler
(Gerhard Ruenstler)

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Eichhorst, Werner & Gerard, Maarten & Kendzia, Michael Jan & Mayrhuber, Christine & Nielsen, Conny & Rünstler, Gerhard & Url, Thomas, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU – Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," IZA Research Reports 42, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Euro Area's Debt Hangover
      by Stephen G. Cecchetti in Huffington Post Business on 2015-05-19 18:57:53
    2. The euro area's debt hangover
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-04-20 18:22:33

Working papers

  1. Aumond, Romain & Di Tommaso, Valerio & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2022. "A narrative database of labour market reforms in euro area economies," Working Paper Series 2657, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Unemployment in the Euro Area and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 10091, CESifo.
    2. Traverso, Silvio & Vatiero, Massimiliano & Zaninotto, Enrico, 2024. "Automation and flexible labor contracts: Firm-level evidence from Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1425, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

  2. Ampudia, Miguel & Lo Duca, Marco & Farkas, Mátyás & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pirovano, Mara & Rünstler, Gerhard & Tereanu, Eugen, 2021. "On the effectiveness of macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2559, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Sabol, 2024. "Easier Said than Done: Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices in Croatia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 74(1), pages 43-72, March.
    2. Škrinjarić, Tihana, 2024. "Growth-at-risk for macroprudential policy stance assessment: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1075, Bank of England.
    3. Ballouk, Hossein & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Challita, Sandra & Chen, Chaomei, 2024. "Financial stability: A scientometric analysis and research agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    4. Martin, Alberto & Mendicino, Caterina & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Systemic risk and policy interventions: monetary and macroprudential policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 97.
    5. Zhandos Ybrayev & Andrey Talakin & Yerlan Kairullayev & Talgat Zharkynbay, 2024. "Household debt service ratio in a developing economy: borrower-based analytical tools and macroprudential policy overview in Kazakhstan," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 58-72, March.
    6. Martin Hodula & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2022. "Finance, growth and (macro)prudential policy: European evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 537-571, May.
    7. Coman, Andra, 2023. "Monetary policy spillovers and the role of prudential policies in the European Union," Working Paper Series 2854, European Central Bank.
    8. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    9. Pedro J. Gutiérrez-Diez & Tibor Pál, 2023. "Monetary policy models: lessons from the Eurozone crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Laeven, Luc & Maddaloni, Angela & Mendicino, Caterina, 2022. "Monetary policy, macroprudential policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2647, European Central Bank.
    11. Jozef Kalman & Jan Klacso & Roman Vasil & Juraj Zeman, 2023. "What's the Cost of "Saving the Planet" for Banks? Assessing the Indirect Impact of Climate Transition Risks on Slovak Banks' Loan Portfolios," Working and Discussion Papers WP 7/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    12. Lo Duca, Marco & Hallissey, Niamh & Jurca, Pavol & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lima, Diana & Pirovano, Mara & Prapiestis, Algirdas & Saldías, Martín & Tereanu, Eugen & Bartal, Mehdi & Giedraitė, Edita, 2023. "The more the merrier? Macroprudential instrument interactions and effective policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 310, European Central Bank.
    13. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Macroprudential stance assessment: problems of measurement, literature review and some comments for the case of Croatia," Working Papers 72, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    14. Ampudia, Miguel & Lo Duca, Marco & Farkas, Mátyás & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pirovano, Mara & Rünstler, Gerhard & Tereanu, Eugen, 2021. "Avoiding a financial epidemic – The role of macroprudential policies," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 87.
    15. Carlos Canizares Martinez, 2023. "Leaning against housing booms fueled by credit," Working and Discussion Papers WP 9/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

  3. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of euro area labour market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR," Working Paper Series 2592, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Gerhard Rünstler, 2023. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: Dynamic effects of US macroprudential policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 186-201, March.
    2. Traverso, Silvio & Vatiero, Massimiliano & Zaninotto, Enrico, 2024. "Automation and flexible labor contracts: Firm-level evidence from Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1425, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

  4. Budnik, Katarzyna & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2020. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: dynamic effects of U.S. macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 2353, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Hülsewig, Oliver & Steinbach, Armin, 2024. "Banking Regulation and Sovereign Default Risk: How Regulation Undermines Rules," HEC Research Papers Series 1526, HEC Paris.
    2. Budnik, Katarzyna, 2020. "The effect of macroprudential policies on credit developments in Europe 1995-2017," Working Paper Series 2462, European Central Bank.
    3. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo & Ivan Paya, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers 307121127, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2023. "Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    8. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    10. Boucherie, Louis & Budnik, Katarzyna & Panos, Jiri, 2022. "Looking at the evolution of macroprudential policy stance: A growth-at-risk experiment with a semi-structural model," Occasional Paper Series 301, European Central Bank.

  5. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2021. "Euro area house prices and unconventional monetary policy surprises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

  6. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Eyno Rots, 2018. "Business, Housing, and Credit Cycles – The Case of Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(4), pages 5-22.
    2. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," IMFS Working Paper Series 132, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Kohler, Karsten & Tippet, Ben & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2022. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," IPE Working Papers 194/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Amat Adarov, 2019. "Financial Cycles in Europe: Dynamics, Synchronicity and Implications for Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Imbalances," wiiw Working Papers 166, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Chikako Baba & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Olamide Harrison & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Anvar Musayev & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2020. "How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/006, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gabriel Zsurkis, 2022. "Determinants of cost of equity for listed euro area banks," Working Papers w202209, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Filippo Gusella, 2022. "Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
    10. Davor Kunovac & Ivan Žilić, 2020. "Home sweet home: The effects of housing loan subsidies on the housing market in Croatia," Working Papers 60, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2021. "Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6611-6625, December.
    12. Jitka Pomenkova & Eva Klejmova & Zuzana Kucerova, 2019. "Cyclicality in lending activity of Euro area in pre- and post- 2008 crisis: a local-adaptive-based testing of wavelets," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 155-175.
    13. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    14. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    15. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2022. "Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: A Cross‐Country Perspective Using Wavelet Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 569-593, June.
    18. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 70, Bank of Lithuania.
    19. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    20. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank.
    21. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Euro Area Growth and European Institutional Reforms," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    22. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    23. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    24. Hiona Balfoussia & Heather D. Gibson & Dimitris Malliaropulos & Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2020. "The economic impact of pandemics: real and financial transmission channels," Working Papers 283, Bank of Greece.
    25. Davor Kunovac & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: a cross-country perspective," Working Papers 55, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    26. Maximilien Coussin & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2019. "Les cycles financiers convergent-ils en zone euro? En phase oui, en amplitude non," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 403.
    27. Jesper Pedersen, 2019. "What Are the Effects of Changes in Taxation and New Types of Mortgages on the Real Economy? The Case of Denmark during the 2000s," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 47-99, December.
    28. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Mariarosaria Comunale & Dmitrij Celov, 2021. "Business cycles in the EU: A comprehensive comparison across methods," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 26, Bank of Lithuania.
    30. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    31. Burlon, Lorenzo & D’Imperio, Paolo, 2020. "Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    32. Andreea Maria Muraru, 2020. "The Impact of Global Tensions on the Economic and Financial Cycle in Romania," Postmodern Openings, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 115-128, October.
    33. Paolo Guarda & Alban Moura, 2019. "Measuring real and financial cycles in Luxembourg: An unobserved components approach," BCL working papers 126, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    34. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    35. Scharnagl Michael & Mandler Martin, 2019. "Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 895-916, October.
    36. Yannis Dafermos & Daniela Gabor & Jo Michell, 2023. "Institutional supercycles: an evolutionary macro-finance approach," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 693-712, September.

  7. Beyer, Andreas & Nicoletti, Giulio & Papadopoulou, Niki & Papsdorf, Patrick & Rünstler, Gerhard & Schwarz, Claudia & Sousa, João & Vergote, Olivier, 2017. "The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations," Occasional Paper Series 191, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Ampudia, Miguel & Beck, Thorsten & Beyer, Andreas & Colliard, Jean-Edouard & Leonello, Agnese & Maddaloni, Angela & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2019. "The architecture of supervision," Working Paper Series 2287, European Central Bank.
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "The Time-Spatial Dimension of Eurozone Banking Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Silviu Oprică & Claudia Schwarz, 2024. "Supervisory forward guidance: the effectiveness of the 2020 euro area supervisory capital relief on the bank credit supply channel," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 20-41, March.
    5. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Working Papers hal-04159759, HAL.
    6. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Körner, Jenny & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2019. "Empowering central bank asset purchases: The role of financial policies," Working Paper Series 2237, European Central Bank.
    8. Elien Meuleman & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy And Bank Systemic Risk," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/971, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    10. Łukasz Kurowski & Paweł Smaga, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Cyclical Systemic Risk - Friends or Foes?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(5), pages 522-540.
    11. Nuno Cassola & Christoffer Kok & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "The ECB after the crisis: existing synergies among monetary policy, macroprudential policies and banking supervision," Working Papers 424, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2019.
    12. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Musso, Alberto & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Evolution of the ECB’s analytical framework," Occasional Paper Series 277, European Central Bank.
    13. Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Adrian-Marius IONESCU, 2021. "Do Central and Eastern Countries benefit from ECB’s unconventional monetary policies?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2898, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    14. Zia Abbas & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Shaista Alam, 2019. "Does bank capital affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism? A case study of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs)," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Uddin, Godwin, 2021. "Financial system regulation in a pandemic: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 108052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.

  8. Rünstler, Gerhard & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Business, housing and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 1915, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang, 2020. "A Study of Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy in Taiwan," MPRA Paper 101296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 15, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," IMFS Working Paper Series 132, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Kohler, Karsten & Tippet, Ben & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2022. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," IPE Working Papers 194/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    6. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113143, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    8. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    9. Önundur Páll Ragnarsson & Jón Magnús Hannesson & Loftur Hreinsson, 2019. "Financial cycles as early warning indicators - Lessons from the Nordic region," Economics wp80, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    10. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
    11. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 382, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Brian Micallef, 2016. "Property price misalignment with fundamentals in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Sylvain Pouget, 2023. "Web-scraping housing prices in real-time: The Covid-19 crisis in the UK," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04064185, HAL.
    14. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Álvarez, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio, 2023. "Distressed firms, zombie firms and zombie lending: A taxonomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "On the credit-to-GDP gap and spurious medium-term cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    18. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    19. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2021. "Capital Flow Dynamics And The Synchronization Of Financial Cycles And Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers WP/02/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    20. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
    21. Davor Kunovac & Ivan Žilić, 2020. "Home sweet home: The effects of housing loan subsidies on the housing market in Croatia," Working Papers 60, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    22. Jitka Pomenkova & Eva Klejmova & Zuzana Kucerova, 2019. "Cyclicality in lending activity of Euro area in pre- and post- 2008 crisis: a local-adaptive-based testing of wavelets," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 155-175.
    23. Karmelavičius, Jaunius & Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau, Ieva & Petrokaitė, Austėja Petrokaitė, 2022. "Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 135, European Systemic Risk Board.
    24. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2019. "Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy," CPB Discussion Paper 398, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    25. Ashe, Sinéad & Egan, Paul, 2023. "Examining financial and business cycle interaction using cross recurrence plot analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    27. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "The Credit Composition of Global Liquidity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202115, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    28. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    29. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Katarzyna Budnik & Gerhard Rünstler, 2023. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: Dynamic effects of US macroprudential policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 186-201, March.
    31. Kang, Natasha & Marmer, Vadim, 2020. "Modeling Long Cycles," Economics working papers vadim_marmer-2020-3, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 26 Oct 2020.
    32. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    33. Gabor Katay & Lisa Kerdelhué & Matthieu Lequien, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    34. Hessler, Andrew, 2023. "Unobserved components model estimates of credit cycles: Tests and predictions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    35. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    36. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2018. "The knotty interplay between credit and housing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 241-266.
    37. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    38. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    39. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    40. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    41. Beirne, John, 2019. "Financial Cycles in Asset Markets and Regions," ADBI Working Papers 1052, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    42. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    43. Andrew E. Evans, 2020. "Average labour productivity dynamics over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1833-1863, October.
    44. Davor Kunovac & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: a cross-country perspective," Working Papers 55, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    45. Álvarez-Román, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel, 2021. "Are house prices overvalued in Spain? A regional approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    46. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Roy Chowdhury, S. & Gupta, Kirti & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2023. "US housing prices and the transmission mechanism of connectedness," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    48. Natalia S. Nikitina, 2022. "Forecasting the Real Estate Price Index in Russia [Прогнозирование Индекса Цен На Недвижимость В России]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 23-28, June.
    49. Mariarosaria Comunale & Dmitrij Celov, 2021. "Business cycles in the EU: A comprehensive comparison across methods," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 26, Bank of Lithuania.
    50. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    51. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    52. Natalia S. Nikitina, 2022. "Прогнозирование Индекса Цен На Недвижимость В России," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 23-28, June.
    53. Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
    54. Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    55. Kok, Christoffer & Pancaro, Cosimo & Mirza, Harun, 2017. "Macro stress testing euro area banks' fees and commissions," Working Paper Series 2029, European Central Bank.
    56. Tinghui Li & Junhao Zhong & Mark Xu, 2019. "Does the Credit Cycle Have an Impact on Happiness?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, December.
    57. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "On the cyclical properties of Hamilton's regression filter," Discussion Papers 03/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    58. Vítor Martins & Alessandro Turrini & Bořek Vašíček & Madalina Zamfir, 2021. "Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses," European Economy - Discussion Papers 147, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    59. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    60. Andreea Maria Muraru, 2020. "The Impact of Global Tensions on the Economic and Financial Cycle in Romania," Postmodern Openings, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 115-128, October.
    61. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    62. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    63. Rachida Hennani & John Theal, 2019. "Characterizing the Luxembourg financial cycle: Alternatives to statistical filters," BCL working papers 133, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    64. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    65. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    66. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    67. Nicu Sprincean, 2019. "Early Warning Indicators For Macrofinancial Activity In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 23, pages 137-162, June.
    68. Damjanović, Milan & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Constructing a house price misalignment indicator: revisited and revamped," MPRA Paper 118489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
    70. Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
    71. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    72. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
    73. Beltran, Daniel O. & Dalal, Vihar M. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Paine, Fiona A., 2024. "Optimizing composite early warning indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    74. Scharnagl Michael & Mandler Martin, 2019. "Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 895-916, October.

  9. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "Network Dependence in the Euro Area Money Market," Working Paper Series 1887, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.

  10. Eichhorst, Werner & Gerard, Maarten & Kendzia, Michael Jan & Mayrhuber, Christine & Nielsen, Conny & Rünstler, Gerhard & Url, Thomas, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU – Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," IZA Research Reports 42, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Cited by:

    1. Ive Marx & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "GINI DP 82: The paradox of redistribution revisited: and that it may rest in peace?," GINI Discussion Papers 82, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    2. Christine Mayrhuber & Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2014. "Niedriglohnbeschäftigung und Sozialversicherungsabgaben," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60727, January.
    3. Ive Marx & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "The paradox of redistribution revisited: and that it may rest in peace?," LIS Working papers 593, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    4. Thomas Url, 2015. "Altersvorsorgesysteme in Europa," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57913, January.
    5. Ana-Isabel Guerra & Laura Varela-Candamio & Jesús López-Rodríguez, 2022. "Tax reforms in Spain: efficiency levels and distributional patterns," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 41-68, January.
    6. Christine Mayrhuber, 2020. "Neue Formen der Pensionsvalorisierung für Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67248, January.
    7. Klaus Kaier & Christoph Müller, 2015. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: concept, results and applications," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 865-895, November.
    8. Dilshodjon Alidjonovich Rakhmonov, 2016. "Improvement of the Pension System in Uzbekistan: Through the Experience of the European Union Countries," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(1), pages 80-90.
    9. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2014. "The migration challenge for PAYG," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1023-1038, October.
    10. Gordana Matković & Katarina Stanić, 2020. "The Serbian Pension System In Transition: A Silent Break With Bismarck," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(225), pages 105-134, April – J.
    11. Marx, Ive & Salanauskaite, Lina & Verbist, Gerlinde, 2013. "The Paradox of Redistribution Revisited: And That It May Rest in Peace?," IZA Discussion Papers 7414, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Szüle, Borbála, 2013. "Savings and Implicit Debt in Pension Systems," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(3), pages 334-348.

  11. Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "On the Design of Data Sets for Forecasting with Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 376, WIFO.

    Cited by:

    1. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    2. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    3. Herman O. Stekler & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Working Papers 2016-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  12. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec, 2013. "Short‐Term Forecasts of French GDP: A Dynamic Factor Model with Targeted Predictors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 500-511, September.
    2. Dorrucci, Ettore & Meyer-Cirkel, Alexis & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2009. "Domestic financial development in emerging economies: evidence and implications," Occasional Paper Series 102, European Central Bank.
    3. Sturm, Michael & Adolf, Petra & Peschel, Dominik & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "The Gulf Cooperation Council countries: economic structures, recent developments and role in the global economy," Occasional Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    4. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    5. Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, "undated". "FaMIDAS: A Mixed Frequency Factor Model with MIDAS structure," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    6. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
    7. Taglioni, Daria & Straub, Roland & Bussière, Matthieu & Pérez-Barreiro, Emilia, 2010. "Protectionist responses to the crisis – global trends and implications," Occasional Paper Series 110, European Central Bank.
    8. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9827, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    10. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
    11. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    12. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises - an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.
    13. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    14. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    15. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    16. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Julius Stakenas, 2012. "Generating short-term forecasts of the Lithuanian GDP using factor models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    18. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    19. João Valle e Azevedo, 2008. "Approximating Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time in the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Filippo Di Mauro & Katrin Forster, "undated". "Globalisation and the competitiveness of the Euro area," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    21. Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008. "The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(6), pages 349-358, November.
    22. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François & González Alegre, Juan, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    23. Le Breton, Gwenaël & Be Duc, Louis, 2009. "Flow-of-funds analysis at the ECB: framework and applications," Occasional Paper Series 105, European Central Bank.
    24. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.
    25. Winkler, Adalbert & Schokker, Hubert & Cocozza, Emidio & Herzberg, Valerie & Móré, Csaba & de Lannoy, Anthony & Gardó, Sándor & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Polgár, Éva Katalin & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Br, 2008. "Financial stability challenges in candidate countries managing the transition to deeper and more market-oriented financial systems," Occasional Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    26. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "Real-Time Nowcasting of GDP: Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    27. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
    28. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    30. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 499-520, September.
    31. Mayerlen, Frank & Sola, Pierre & Be Duc, Louis, 2008. "The monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments," Occasional Paper Series 96, European Central Bank.
    32. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    33. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    34. Poloni, Paolo & Agresti, Anna Maria & Baudino, Patrizia, 2008. "The ECB and IMF indicators for the macro-prudential analysis of the banking sector: a comparison of the two approaches," Occasional Paper Series 99, European Central Bank.
    35. Kennickell, Arthur & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Ehrmann, Michael & Bonci, Riccardo & Museux, Jean-Marc & Honkkila, Juha & Vilmunen, Jouko & Herrala, Risto & Komprej, Irena & Jeran, Matjaž & Geršak, Uroš & , 2009. "Survey data on household finance and consumption: research summary and policy use," Occasional Paper Series 100, European Central Bank.
    36. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Luboš Rùžièka & Peter Tóth, 2011. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583, December.
    37. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    38. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    39. Rüffer, Rasmus & di Mauro, Filippo & Bunda, Irina, 2008. "The changing role of the exchange rate in a globalised economy," Occasional Paper Series 94, European Central Bank.
    40. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. António Rua, 2011. "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
    42. Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Asimakopoulos, Yannis & Doyle, Nicola & Magono, Ruth & Zachary, Marie-Denise & Walko, Zoltan & Stoess, Elmar & Kok, Christoffer & Wagner, Karin & Valckx, Nico & Martínez Pagés,, 2009. "Housing finance in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 101, European Central Bank.
    43. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    44. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España.
    45. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Morgese Borys, Magdalena & Polgár, Éva Katalin & Zlate, Andrei, 2008. "Real convergence and the determinants of growth in EU candidate and potential candidate countries: a panel data approach," Occasional Paper Series 86, European Central Bank.
    47. di Mauro, Filippo & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Karadeloglou, Pavlos, 2008. "Will oil prices decline over the long run?," Occasional Paper Series 98, European Central Bank.
    48. Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2008. "An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 89, European Central Bank.
    49. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    50. Trabandt, Mathias & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Stark, Jürgen & Lalouette, Laure & Nickel, Christiane & Valenta, Vilém & van Riet, Ad & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Afonso, António & Warmedinger, Thomas & , 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    51. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    52. Liebermann, Joëlle, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 74-84, February.
    53. Juraj Hucek & Alexander Karsay & Marian Vavra, 2015. "Short-term Forecasting of Real GDP Using Monthly Data," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    54. D'Elia, Enrico, 2010. "Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates," MPRA Paper 36070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Ritter, Raymond, 2009. "Transnational governance in global finance: the principles for stable capital flows and fair debt restructuring in emerging markets," Occasional Paper Series 103, European Central Bank.
    56. Liu, Philip & Matheson, Troy & Romeu, Rafael, 2012. "Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1090-1098.
    57. Vitale, Giovanni & Moutot, Philippe, 2009. "Monetary policy strategy in a global environment," Occasional Paper Series 106, European Central Bank.
    58. Strauch, Rolf & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie & Turunen, Jarkko & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Masuch, Klaus, 2008. "Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries: developments and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 87, European Central Bank.
    59. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    60. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    61. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    62. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    63. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    64. KETENCI, Natalya, 2010. "Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    65. Winkler, Adalbert & Polański, Zbigniew, 2008. "Russia, EU enlargement and the euro," Occasional Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
    66. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    67. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    68. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    69. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    70. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    71. Chen, Pu, 2009. "A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    72. Arora Siddharth & Little Max A. & McSharry Patrick E., 2013. "Nonlinear and nonparametric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasting of the US gross national product," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 395-420, September.
    73. Mäkinen, Mikko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Russian GDP growth," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    74. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    75. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.

  13. Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," Working Paper Series 953, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    2. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    3. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Anastasia Mogilat & Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Zhanna Shuvalova & Yaroslav Murashov, 2024. "DYFARUS: Dynamic Factor Model to Forecast GDP by Output Using Input-Output Tables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 3-25, June.
    5. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    6. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    8. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    9. Mahmut Günay, 2015. "Forecasting Turkish Industrial Production Growth With Static Factor Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 64-78, September.
    10. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    11. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ifo Working Paper Series 196, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    13. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    16. Behrens, Christoph, 2019. "Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach," Working Papers 9, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    17. Christoph Behrens, 2019. "A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts under Flexible Loss," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, September.
    18. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    20. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
    21. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 54, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    22. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    23. Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    24. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    25. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting GDP using factor model: An empirical study from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 10-26, May.
    26. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    27. Gabe J. Bondt, 2019. "A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 147-170, December.
    28. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    29. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    30. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    31. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    32. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    33. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    35. Claudia Godbout & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models," Staff Working Papers 12-7, Bank of Canada.
    36. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    37. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    38. Rueben Ellul, 2016. "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    39. Modugno, Michele, 2011. "Nowcasting inflation using high frequency data," Working Paper Series 1324, European Central Bank.
    40. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    41. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    42. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    43. Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.
    44. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    45. Tretyakov, Dmitriy & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Помогают Ли Высокочастотные Данные В Прогнозировании Российской Инфляции? [Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?]," MPRA Paper 109556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Daniela Bobeva, 2021. "Nominal, Structural and Real Convergence of the EU Candidate Countries’ Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 59-78.
    47. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.

  14. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    2. Marie Bessec, 2013. "Short‐Term Forecasts of French GDP: A Dynamic Factor Model with Targeted Predictors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 500-511, September.
    3. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Luci Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon M. Potter, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    7. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9827, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," CSEF Working Papers 240, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    10. William A. Barnett & Biyan Tang, 2015. "Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201506, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2015.
    11. Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-584.
    12. Fokin, Nikita & Polbin, Andrey, 2019. "A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth," MPRA Paper 95306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
    13. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    14. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    17. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    18. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    19. Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8291, CESifo.
    20. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    21. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2013. "Forecasting US growth during the Great Recession: Is the financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Working Papers hal-04141198, HAL.
    22. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    23. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    24. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    25. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    26. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    28. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    29. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    30. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    31. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    32. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    34. Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," Working Paper Series 953, European Central Bank.
    35. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    37. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    38. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2019. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers 2019-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    39. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    40. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    41. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
    42. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    43. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57998, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    45. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    46. Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Post-Print halshs-00275769, HAL.
    47. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    48. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    49. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    50. Dandan ZHANG & Xunpeng SHI & Yu SHENG, 2014. "Enhanced Measurement of Energy Market Integration in East Asia: An Application of Dynamic Principal Component Analysis," Working Papers DP-2014-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    51. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "Real-Time Nowcasting of GDP: Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    52. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
    53. Michael Berlemann & Vera Jahn & Robert Lehmann, 2022. "Is the German Mittelstand more resistant to crises?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1169-1195, October.
    54. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    55. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    56. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 499-520, September.
    57. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
    58. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    59. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    60. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment," Working Paper 2014/17, Norges Bank.
    61. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    62. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    63. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2014. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    64. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    65. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    66. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    67. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    68. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    69. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    70. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    71. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    72. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    73. Maxime Leboeuf & Louis Morel, 2014. "Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions," Discussion Papers 14-3, Bank of Canada.
    74. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    75. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    76. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    77. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    78. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.
    79. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    80. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    81. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    82. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
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    5. Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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    78. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    79. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
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    81. Hopp Daniel, 2022. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 847-873, September.
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    83. Yang, Hu & Chen, Yu & Chen, Kedong & Wang, Haijun, 2024. "Temporal-spatial dependencies enhanced deep learning model for time series forecast," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    85. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2013. "Testing for Granger Causality with Mixed Frequency Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    87. Yan Shao & Zhe Yang & Tianjian Yang, 2023. "The Road of Post-Industrialization Transformation in Developing Countries Based on Weighted Markov and Grey Correlation Theory, Taking the Change of Industrial Structure in Heilongjiang Province of Ch," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
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    89. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    90. Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
    91. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    92. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    93. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.
    94. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2018. "A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP," Discussion Papers 10/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    95. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    97. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    98. Daniel Roash & Tanya Suhoy, 2019. "Sentiment Indicators Based on a Short Business Tendency Survey," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.11, Bank of Israel.
    99. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    100. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    101. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Assessment Of GDP Growth After The Corona Crisis Using The Results Of Business And Consumer Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 118/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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    104. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    105. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
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    107. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    113. Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
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  16. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
    2. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, . "Previsão do Investimento em Portugal com Base em Indicadores Qualitativos e Quantitativos," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    4. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," CSEF Working Papers 240, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    6. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008. "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers w200818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Klaus Abberger, 2007. "Forecasting Quarter-on-Quarter Changes of German GDP with Monthly Business Tendency Survey Results," ifo Working Paper Series 40, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    11. Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
    12. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206, November.
    15. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Stéphane Sorbe, 2007. "Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 46, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka.
    17. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
    19. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
    20. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    21. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    22. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00511979, HAL.
    23. Petralias, Athanassios & Petros, Sotirios & Prodromídis, Pródromos, 2013. "Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 52626, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    26. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    27. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
    28. Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions : Information or Forecast Combinations ?," Working Papers 2013-21, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    29. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España.
    30. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    31. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    32. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    34. Gilles Mourre & Michael Thiel, 2006. "Monitoring short-term labour cost developments in the European Union: which indicators to trust?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 258, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    35. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    36. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00511979, HAL.
    37. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Post-Print halshs-00423871, HAL.
    38. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
    39. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
    40. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    41. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    42. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    43. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.

  17. Gerhard Rünstler, 2002. "Are real-time estimates of the output gap reliable?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 300, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  18. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso, 2012. "Growth accounting for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 219-244, August.
    2. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
    3. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Martha López P., 2003. "Efficient Policy Rule for Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 240, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    6. Jens R. Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2003, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    7. Lemoine, Matthieu & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni, Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
    8. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 59-91.
    9. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    10. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    11. Wayne Robinson, 2004. "Real Shocks, Credibility & Stabilization Policy in a Small Open Economy," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 39-55, January-J.
    12. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, . "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, pages 123-123.
    13. Michael Graff & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2010. "The information content of capacity utilisation rates for output gap estimates," KOF Working papers 10-269, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Ecart de production dans la zone euro : une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01019442, HAL.
    16. Carlos Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 769, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    18. Kuusi, Tero, 2018. "Does the structural budget balance guide fiscal policy pro-cyclically? Evidence from the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s," MPRA Paper 84829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stracca, Livio & Musso, Alberto & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 811, European Central Bank.
    20. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
    21. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    22. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
    23. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    24. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2008. "A monthly indicator of Economic activity for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 31, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    25. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
    26. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
    27. Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, 2011. "The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1132, The University of Melbourne.
    28. Planas, C. & Roeger, W. & Rossi, A., 2013. "The information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 577-590.
    29. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    31. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Günter Coenen & Frank Smets & Igor Vetlov, 2009. "Estimation of the Euro Area Output Gap Using the NAWM," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 5, Bank of Lithuania.
    33. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
    34. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    35. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    36. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    37. Adriana Arreaza & Enid Blanco & Miguel Dorta, 2004. "A Small Scale Macroeconomic Model for Venezuela," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-38, January-J.
    38. Bassanetti, Antonio & Döpke, Jörg & Torrini, Roberto & Zizza, Roberta, 2006. "Capital, labour and productivity: What role do they play in the potential GPD weakness of France, Germany and Italy?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute.
    40. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
    41. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.

  19. Rünstler, Gerhard & Jumah, Adusei & Karbuz, Sohbet, 1995. "Arbitrage in Commodity Markets: A Full Systems Cointegration Analysis," Economics Series 4, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2006. "Speculative Activity and Copper Price," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 384, Central Bank of Chile.

Articles

  1. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.

    Cited by:

    1. Santander Quino, Camila Miriam, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    2. Ridhima Garg & A. N. Sah, 2024. "Cyclical dynamics and co-movement of business, credit, and investment cycles: empirical evidence from India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
    4. Yuriy Bilan & Maryna Brychko & Anna Buriak & Tetyana Vasilyeva, 2019. "Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138.
    5. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    6. Kohl, Sebastian, 2018. "A small history of the homeownership ideal," MPIfG Discussion Paper 18/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

  3. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Spannungen in der Weltwirtschaft nehmen zu," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(8), pages 523-531, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "FAMO – Fachkräftemonitoring. Regelmäßige Erhebung des Angebots und des Bedarfs an Fachkräften in der Grenzregion Ostösterreichs mit der Slowakei. FAMO II: Auswirkungen der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschafts," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 42875, January.

  5. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Wirtschaft des Euro-Raumes profitiert verzögert von Abwertung und starkem Welthandel. Prognose für 2010 und 2011," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(7), pages 555-569, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Ederer & Jürgen Janger, 2010. "Wachstums- und Beschäftigungspolitik in Österreich unter europäischen Rahmenbedingungen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41042, January.

  8. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
    4. Mikosch, Heiner & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Doll, Jens & Rosenthal, Beatrice & Volkenand, Jonas & Hamella, Sandra, 2017. "Nowcasting des deutschen BIP," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 59, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    6. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    10. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    11. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
    12. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    13. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2019. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," ifo Working Paper Series 294, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Mahmut Günay, 2015. "Forecasting Turkish Industrial Production Growth With Static Factor Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 64-78, September.
    15. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
    16. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2016. "A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data rich environment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    19. João Valle e Azevedo, 2008. "Approximating Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time in the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    21. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    22. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    23. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    24. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    26. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    27. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    28. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    29. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    30. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2014. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    31. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Dissecting Models' Forecasting Performance," KOF Working papers 15-397, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    32. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    33. Alessandro Borin & Riccardo Cristadoro & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2012. "Forecasting world output: the rising importance of emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 853, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    34. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    35. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    36. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    37. António Rua, 2011. "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
    38. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    39. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    40. Anna Norin, 2011. "Nowcasting of the Gross Regional Product," ERSA conference papers ersa10p768, European Regional Science Association.
    41. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    42. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    43. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    44. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    45. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    46. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    47. António Rua & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    48. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    49. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    51. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    52. Liebermann, Joëlle, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 74-84, February.
    53. Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2018. "Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany: A supply and demand side system of bridge equations," Discussion Papers 36/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    54. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235, Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Lopez-Buenache, German, 2019. "The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 221-233.
    56. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
    57. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    58. Heinisch, Katja, 2024. "Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    59. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    60. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    61. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    62. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    63. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    64. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," MNB Working Papers 2020/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    65. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    66. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    67. António Rua & Nuno Lourenço & Francisco Dias, 2018. "Forecasting exports with targeted predictors," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    68. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    69. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.

  9. Gerhard Runstler, 2004. "Modelling phase shifts among stochastic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 232-248, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang, 2020. "A Study of Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy in Taiwan," MPRA Paper 101296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pappalardo, Carmine & Cesaroni, Tatiana, 2008. "Long Run and Short Run Dynamics in Italian Manufacturing Labour Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6795, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 382, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2014. "A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output," BIS Working Papers 442, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 59-91.
    6. Wanger, Susanne & Weigand, Roland & Zapf, Ines, 2014. "Revision der IAB-Arbeitszeitrechnung 2014 : Grundlagen, methodische Weiterentwicklungen sowie ausgewählte Ergebnisse im Rahmen der Revision der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201409, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    8. Samuel Bates & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2014. "Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 951-965.
    9. Andrew Lee-Poy, 2018. "Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-34, Bank of Canada.
    10. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    12. Lenza, Michele & Jarociński, Marek, 2016. "An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1966, European Central Bank.
    13. Andrew E. Evans, 2020. "Average labour productivity dynamics over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1833-1863, October.
    14. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 857-861.
    15. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano, 2016. "The trend–cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1565-1587, June.
    16. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," Working Papers w200717, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    19. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano, 2013. "The trend-cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 941, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Arthur P. Guillaumin & Adam M. Sykulski & Sofia C. Olhede & Jeffrey J. Early & Jonathan M. Lilly, 2017. "Analysis of Non-Stationary Modulated Time Series with Applications to Oceanographic Surface Flow Measurements," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 668-710, September.
    21. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Working Paper Research 136, National Bank of Belgium.

  10. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.

    Cited by:

    1. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 1999. "The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa," Economics Series 73, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    3. Li, Jia & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & McErlean, Seamus, 2004. "The Efficiency Of The Futures Market For Agricultural Commodities In The Uk," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20203, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
    5. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
    6. Carcano, G. & Falbo, P. & Stefani, S., 2005. "Speculative trading in mean reverting markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 132-144, May.

  11. Franz R. Hahn & Gerhard Rünstler, 1996. "Potential-Output-Messung für Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 69(3), pages 223-234, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2008. "A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components," WIFO Working Papers 316, WIFO.
    2. Pichelmann, Karl & Schuh, Andreas-Ulrich, 1996. "The NAIRU - Concept: A Few Remarks," Economics Series 36, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Wolfgang Pollan, 2005. "Die Schätzung der NAIRU in einer korporatistischen Wirtschaft," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25709, January.

Chapters

  1. Gerhard Rünstler, 2016. "On the Design of Data Sets for Forecasting with Dynamic Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 629-662, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

Books

  1. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of books recorded.
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