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Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: A Cross‐Country Perspective Using Wavelet Analysis

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  • Martin Mandler
  • Michael Scharnagl

Abstract

We study the cross‐country dimension of financial cycles for six euro area countries using wavelet analysis. Estimated wavelet cohesions show that cycles in equity prices and interest rates display stronger synchronization across countries than real output cycles, whereas credit variables and house prices show lower cross‐country synchronization. We propose a wavelet‐based extension to the spectral envelope that is similar to a frequency‐based time‐varying principal component analysis. The country loadings show that, contrary to all other variables, cycles in loans to households and house prices in Germany and the Netherlands are negatively or less strongly correlated with the common cycles.

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  • Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2022. "Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: A Cross‐Country Perspective Using Wavelet Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 569-593, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:84:y:2022:i:3:p:569-593
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12481
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    1. Andreani, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2024. "Mortgages, house prices, and business cycle dynamic: A medium-run exploration using the continuous wavelet transform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Beltran, Daniel O. & Dalal, Vihar M. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Paine, Fiona A., 2024. "Optimizing composite early warning indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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