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The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability

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  • Lopez-Buenache, German

Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the US following the Great Recession. The implementation of a modified Dynamic Factor Model enables the identification of two different structural scenarios based on the information contained in a large dataset of 110 variables. Impulse Response Functions to an increase of official interest rate for this large dataset are estimated for each structural context. Three techniques are combined to deal with the dimensionality problems which emerge from an estimation procedure of this magnitude: (i) factor decomposition, (ii) an identification strategy independent of the number of variables included in the dataset and (iii) a blockwise optimization algorithm for the correct selection of the Bayesian priors. Results show the presence of a structural break in 2008 and the higher responsiveness of the economy to monetary policy after that date.

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  • Lopez-Buenache, German, 2019. "The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 221-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:221-233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "Evidence about the transmission of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e53, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Large dataset; Factor models; Structural change; Great Recession; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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