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Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting

Author

Listed:
  • Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Karel Musil

    (Czech National Bank)

Abstract

В статье предлагается решение проблемы наукаста цикла деловой активности с использованием данных исследования тенденций деловой активности. В ней представлены два метода использования опроса. Кроме того, в документе кратко описывается используемая в Национальном банке система прогнозирования и деловой цикл экономики Казахстана. // The paper presents solution to the problem of business cycle nowcasting by using the business tendency survey data. It introduces two techniques to exploit the survey. Additionally, the paper briefly documents the used forecasting system at the National Bank and concisely summarizes the Kazakh business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:15
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    File URL: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/9045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & N. N. Zhanakova & A. A. Bakdolotov, 2021. "Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 445-453, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; business tendency survey; output gap; GDP; monetary policy; Kazakhstan; наукаст; исследование тенденций бизнеса; разрыв выпуска; ВВП; денежно-кредитная политика; Казахстан;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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