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How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?

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  • Rünstler, Gerhard

Abstract

One foundation for developing new macroprudential policy in addition to traditional macroeconomic stabilisation policy is that financial cycles differ from business cycles. This article identifies properties of credit and housing cycles, shows how they relate to GDP cycles, and compares the reliability of real-time estimates. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2016:0026:
    Note: 339116
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
    2. Schüler, Yves Stephan & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112985, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    4. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    6. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
    2. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    3. Ridhima Garg & A. N. Sah, 2024. "Cyclical dynamics and co-movement of business, credit, and investment cycles: empirical evidence from India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    5. Kohl, Sebastian, 2018. "A small history of the homeownership ideal," MPIfG Discussion Paper 18/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    6. Santander Quino, Camila Miriam, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    7. Yuriy Bilan & Maryna Brychko & Anna Buriak & Tetyana Vasilyeva, 2019. "Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit cycle; financial cycles; house prices; model-based filters; unobserved components models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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