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Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices

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Cited by:

  1. Shiyang Huang & Xin Liu & Dong Lou & Christopher Polk, 2024. "The Booms and Busts of Beta Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(8), pages 5367-5385, August.
  2. Matyska, Branka, 2021. "Salience, systemic risk and spectral risk measures as capital requirements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  3. Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2015. "Cooling Off in Negotiations: Does it Work?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 171(4), pages 565-588, December.
  4. Haim Levy & Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2012. "Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 163-182, March.
  5. Jezek, M., 2009. "Passive Investors, Active Traders and Strategic Delegation of Price Discovery," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0951, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Bin Liu & Monica Tan, 2019. "Overconfidence and forecast accuracy," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 601-618, July.
  7. Zi-Mei Wang & Donald Lien, 2022. "Is maximum daily return a lottery? Evidence from monthly revenue announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 545-600, August.
  8. Levy, Moshe, 2022. "An inter-temporal CAPM based on First order Stochastic Dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 734-739.
  9. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
  10. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
  11. Douadia Bougherara & Laurent Piet, 2018. "On the role of probability weighting on WTP for crop insurance with and without yield skewness," Working Papers hal-02790605, HAL.
  12. Fernando Chague & Bruno Giovannetti & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2021. "The Contrarian Put," Discussion Papers 2106, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  13. Shi, Yun & Cui, Xiangyu & Zhou, Xunyu, 2020. "Beta and Coskewness Pricing: Perspective from Probability Weighting," SocArXiv 5rqhv, Center for Open Science.
  14. repec:acb:cbeeco:2023-698 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Dierkes, Maik & Erner, Carsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2010. "Investment horizon and the attractiveness of investment strategies: A behavioral approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1032-1046, May.
  16. Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David G. McMillan & Fiona J. McMillan, 2020. "Is there a risk and return relation?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1075-1101, July.
  17. Mitton, Todd & Vorkink, Keith & Wright, Ian, 2018. "Neighborhood effects on speculative behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 42-61.
  18. Malcolm Baker & Mathias F. Hoeyer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2016. "The Risk Anomaly Tradeoff of Leverage," NBER Working Papers 22116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2016. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better?," Working Papers in Economics 16/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  20. Yao, Jing & Yang, Yiwen, 2023. "Risk-return tradeoff and serial correlation in the Chinese stock market: A bailout-driven crash feedback hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  21. Tilman H. Drerup & Matthias Wibral & Christian Zimpelmann, 2023. "Skewness expectations and portfolio choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 107-144, March.
  22. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
  23. Filiz-Ozbay, Emel & Guryan, Jonathan & Hyndman, Kyle & Kearney, Melissa & Ozbay, Erkut Y., 2015. "Do lottery payments induce savings behavior? Evidence from the lab," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-24.
  24. Pan, Ging-Ginq & Shiu, Yung-Ming & Wu, Tu-Cheng, 2024. "Extrapolation and option-implied kurtosis in volatility forecasting," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  25. Alexander L. Brown & Taisuke Imai & Ferdinand M. Vieider & Colin F. Camerer, 2024. "Meta-analysis of Empirical Estimates of Loss Aversion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-516, June.
  26. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2022. "The Distress Anomaly is Deeper than You Think: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds [The prediction of corporate bankruptcy: a discriminant analysis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 355-405.
  27. Broihanne, M.H. & Merli, M. & Roger, P., 2014. "Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 64-73.
  28. Qin, Jie, 2020. "Regret-based capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  29. Stein, Roberto, 2024. "More than meets the eye: On the relationship between skewness and expected returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  30. Nicholas Barberis, 2012. "A Model of Casino Gambling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 35-51, January.
  31. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2008. "Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification," EIEF Working Papers Series 0812, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2008.
  32. Mo, Xuan & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can the skewness of oil returns affect stock returns? Evidence from China’s A-Share markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  33. Carolin Bock & Maximilian Schmidt, 2015. "Should I stay, or should I go? – How fund dynamics influence venture capital exit decisions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 68-82, November.
  34. Mahmoud Fatouh & Robert Bock & Jamal Ouenniche, 2023. "Impact of IFRS 9 on the cost of funding of banks in Europe," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 115-145, June.
  35. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2012. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 18621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. De Giorgi, Enrico G. & Legg, Shane, 2012. "Dynamic portfolio choice and asset pricing with narrow framing and probability weighting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 951-972.
  37. Poon, Percy & Yao, Tong & Zhang, Andrew (Jianzhong), 2022. "The alphas of beta and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  38. Xue Dong He & Moris S. Strub & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2019. "Forward Rank-Dependent Performance Criteria: Time-Consistent Investment Under Probability Distortion," Papers 1904.01745, arXiv.org.
  39. Leo Julianto & Irwan Adi Ekaputra, 2020. "Max-Effect in the Indonesian Market," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 19-27.
  40. Xiang, Yun & He, Jiaxuan, 2022. "Pairs trading and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  41. Jozef Barunik & Josef Kurka, 2021. "Risks of heterogeneously persistent higher moments," Papers 2104.04264, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  42. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2009. "Maxing Out: Stocks as Lotteries and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 14804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Marie-Hélène Broihanne & Maxime Merli & Patrick Roger, 2016. "Diversification, gambling and market forces," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 129-157, July.
  44. Bradrania, Reza & Gao, Ya, 2024. "Lottery demand, weather and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  45. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M., 2019. "Deviation from religious trading norms," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 22-30.
  46. Almeida, Caio & Ricca, Bernardo & Tessari, Cristina, 2016. "Idiosyncratic Moments and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
  47. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "An alternative behavioral explanation for the MAX effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 868-886.
  48. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2012. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1243-1285.
  49. Enrico G. De Giorgi, 2009. "Goal-Based Investing with Cumulative Prospect Theory and Satisficing Behavior," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  50. Dittmann, Ingolf & Maug, Ernst & Zhang, Dan, 2011. "Restricting CEO pay," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 1200-1220, September.
  51. Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi & Zhong, Xiaoling, 2021. "Prospect theory and stock returns: Evidence from foreign share markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  52. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
  53. Blocher, Jesse & Zhang, Chi, 2022. "Who is buying and (not) lending when shorts are selling?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  54. González-Urteaga, Ana & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2021. "The quality premium with leverage and liquidity constraints," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  55. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  56. Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "The ordering of historical returns and the cross-section of subsequent returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  57. Lee A. Smales & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Cameron D. Robertson, 2022. "One session options: Playing the announcement lottery?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 192-211, February.
  58. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Peng, Shu-Cing, 2023. "Investor propensity to speculate and price delay in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  59. Giuseppe Arbia & Riccardo Bramante & Silvia Facchinetti, 2020. "Least Quartic Regression Criterion to Evaluate Systematic Risk in the Presence of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, September.
  60. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2013. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 19018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Zhao, Xiaojuan & Wang, Ye & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Someone like you: Lottery-like preference and the cross-section of expected returns in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  62. Wang, Zhiqiang & Su, Bingbai & Coakley, Jerry & Shen, Zhe, 2018. "Prospect theory and IPO returns in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 726-751.
  63. David Hirshleifer & Ming Jian & Huai Zhang, 2018. "Superstition and Financial Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 235-252, January.
  64. Arvanitis, Stelios & Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "Spanning analysis of stock market anomalies under prospect stochastic dominance," Working Papers unige:134101, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
  65. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
  66. Long, Huaigang & Zhu, Yanjian & Chen, Lifang & Jiang, Yuexiang, 2019. "Tail risk and expected stock returns around the world," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 162-178.
  67. Che-Yuan Liang, 2017. "Optimal inequality behind the veil of ignorance," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 431-455, October.
  68. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  69. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  70. Venmans, Frank, 2021. "The leverage anomaly in U.S. bank stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  71. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2014. "IPO first-day returns: Skewness preference, investor sentiment and uncertainty underlying factors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 148-154.
  72. Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. "Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 736-754, September.
  73. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  74. B. Douglas Bernheim & Charles Sprenger, 2020. "On the Empirical Validity of Cumulative Prospect Theory: Experimental Evidence of Rank‐Independent Probability Weighting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1363-1409, July.
  75. Chen, Si, 2012. "Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference Point," MPRA Paper 50693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  77. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  78. Matthias Pelster & Andrea Schertler, 2019. "Pricing and issuance dependencies in structured financial product portfolios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 342-365, March.
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