IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v233y2014i3p613-624.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance

Author

Listed:
  • Vidal-García, Javier
  • Vidal, Marta

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between seasonality, idiosyncratic risk and mutual fund returns using multifactor models. We use a large sample containing the return histories of 728 UK mutual funds over a 23-year period to measure fund performance. We present evidence that idiosyncratic risk cannot be eliminated, we also find evidence of seasonality in all fund categories. Specifically, we find a close relation between the seasonality and the end of the tax-year. We document that the idiosyncratic risk puzzle cannot explain seasonality in fund performance in the UK. Although, we do find that idiosyncratic risk can account for the seasonality in the month of April. Thus, the results show a link between the tax-loss selling hypothesis in April and idiosyncratic risk in that month. Finally, we report evidence that idiosyncratic risk is negatively related to expected returns for most fund classes.

Suggested Citation

  • Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:233:y:2014:i:3:p:613-624
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.09.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221713007479
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.09.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2005. "Does Idiosyncratic Risk Really Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 905-929, April.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    3. Lucy Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 5-16, April.
    4. Kelly, Patrick J. & Meschke, Felix, 2010. "Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1308-1326, June.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    6. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    7. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    8. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
    9. Yu-Jane Liu & Chih-Ling Tsai & Ming-Chun Wang & Ning Zhu, 2010. "Prior Consequences and Subsequent Risk Taking: New Field Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 606-620, April.
    10. Colm Kearney & Valerio Potì, 2008. "Have European Stocks become More Volatile? An Empirical Investigation of Idiosyncratic and Market Risk in the Euro Area," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 419-444, June.
    11. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2004. "Tax-loss trading and wash sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 51-76, January.
    13. Esther Eiling, 2013. "Industry-Specific Human Capital, Idiosyncratic Risk, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 43-84, February.
    14. Garrett, Ian & Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A., 2005. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 291-316, March.
    15. Reinganum, Marc R., 1983. "The anomalous stock market behavior of small firms in January : Empirical tests for tax-loss selling effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-104, June.
    16. Mayers, David, 1976. "Nonmarketable Assets, Market Segmentation, and the Level of Asset Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, March.
    17. Falkenstein, Eric G, 1996. "Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 111-135, March.
    18. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    19. Chen, Changling & Huang, Alan Guoming & Jha, Ranjini, 2012. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility and the Information Quality Underlying Managerial Discretion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 873-899, August.
    20. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    21. Dyl, Edward A, 1977. "Capital Gains Taxation and Year-End Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 165-175, March.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    23. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
    24. Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 515-541, June.
    25. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
    26. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    27. Mark M. Carhart & Ron Kaniel & David K. Musto & Adam V. Reed, 2002. "Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 661-693, April.
    28. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2012. "Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1155-1185, December.
    29. Cooper, Michael J. & McConnell, John J. & Ovtchinnikov, Alexei V., 2006. "The other January effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-341, November.
    30. Yao, Yaqiong, 2012. "Momentum, contrarian, and the January seasonality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2757-2769.
    31. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    32. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    33. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    34. Gibson, Scott & Safieddine, Assem & Titman, Sheridan, 2000. "Tax-Motivated Trading and Price Pressure: An Analysis of Mutual Fund Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 369-386, September.
    35. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
    36. James S. Doran & Danling Jiang & David R. Peterson, 2011. "Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(3), pages 685-731.
    37. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    38. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, August.
    39. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    40. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    41. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1113-1148, June.
    42. Wei, Steven X. & Zhang, Chu, 2005. "Idiosyncratic risk does not matter: A re-examination of the relationship between average returns and average volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 603-621, March.
    43. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:701-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    45. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    46. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Non-January Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    49. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    50. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    51. Ng, Lilian & Wang, Qinghai, 2004. "Institutional trading and the turn-of-the-year effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 343-366, November.
    52. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    53. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:975-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Levy, Haim, 1978. "Equilibrium in an Imperfect Market: A Constraint on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 643-658, September.
    55. Hueng, C. James & Yau, Ruey, 2013. "Country-specific idiosyncratic risk and global equity index returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 326-337.
    56. Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Riadh Manita, 2019. "Idiosyncratic risk and mutual fund performance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 349-372, October.
    2. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2021. "Seasonality in catastrophe bonds and market‐implied catastrophe arrival frequencies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 785-818, September.
    3. Farrukh Naveed & Muhammad Ishfaq & Zahid Maqbool, 2021. "The downside risk of mutual funds: Does the quality of corporate governance matter? Empirical evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 376-388, September.
    4. Lazzarino, Marco & Berrill, Jenny & Šević, Aleksandar, 2022. "The importance of distinguishing between precious and industrial metals when investing in mining stocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Zhang, Ning & Zhang, Yue & Zong, Zhe, 2023. "Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Mitra, Sovan & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Sermpinis, Georgios & Dunis, Christian & Hood, John, 2015. "Operational risk: Emerging markets, sectors and measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 122-132.
    7. Van Son Lai & Duc Khuong Nguyen & William Sodjahin & Issouf Soumaré, 2018. "Discretionary Idiosyncratic Risk, Firm Cash Holdings and Investment," Working Papers 2018-008, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    2. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Riadh Manita, 2019. "Idiosyncratic risk and mutual fund performance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 349-372, October.
    3. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "The relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns in G7 countries," Working Papers 2006-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    5. Hassen Raîs, 2016. "Idiosyncratic Risk and the Cross-Section of European Insurance Equity Returns," Post-Print hal-01764088, HAL.
    6. Esther Eiling, 2013. "Industry-Specific Human Capital, Idiosyncratic Risk, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 43-84, February.
    7. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    8. Rajnish Mehra & Sunil Wahal & Daruo Xie, 2021. "Is idiosyncratic risk conditionally priced?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 625-646, May.
    9. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    10. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    11. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    12. Jennie Bai & Turan G. Bali & Quan Wen, 2019. "Is There a Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Corporate Bond Market? Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nusret Cakici & Isil Erol & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2014. "Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 415-440, April.
    14. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Boehme, Rodney D. & Danielsen, Bartley R. & Kumar, Praveen & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Merton (1987) meets Miller (1977)," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 438-468, August.
    16. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2018. "Global idiosyncratic risk moments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 731-764, September.
    17. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    18. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & Li, Xiafei, 2013. "Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-85.
    19. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "Does idiosyncratic volatility matter in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-160.
    20. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:233:y:2014:i:3:p:613-624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.