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Expected skewness and momentum

Author

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  • Weber, Martin
  • Regele, Tobias
  • Jacobs, Heiko

Abstract

Motivated by the time-series insights of Daniel and Moskowitz (2016), we investigate the link between expected skewness and momentum in the cross-section. The alpha of skewness-enhanced (-weakened) momentum is about twice (half) as large as the traditional alpha. These findings are driven by the short leg. Portfolio sorts, Fama-MacBeth regressions, and the market reaction to earnings announcements suggest that expected skewness is an important determinant of momentum. Due to the simplicity of the approach, its economic magnitude, its existence among large stocks, and the success of risk management, the results are difficult to reconcile with the efficient market hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Martin & Regele, Tobias & Jacobs, Heiko, 2016. "Expected skewness and momentum," CEPR Discussion Papers 11455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11455
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    Cited by:

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    2. Klaus Grobys & James W. Kolari & Jere Rutanen, 2022. "Factor momentum, option-implied volatility scaling, and investor sentiment," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 138-155, March.
    3. Tim A. Herberger & Matthias Horn & Andreas Oehler, 2020. "Are intraday reversal and momentum trading strategies feasible? An analysis for German blue chip stocks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(2), pages 179-197, June.
    4. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2022. "Momentum-Managed Equity Factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Matthias Pelster & Andrea Schertler, 2019. "Pricing and issuance dependencies in structured financial product portfolios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 342-365, March.
    6. Yao, Shouyu & Qin, Yuanyuan & Cheng, Feiyang & Wu, Ji(George) & Goodell, John.W., 2022. "Missing momentum in China: Considering individual investor preference," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2021. "Non-parametric momentum based on ranks and signs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-109.
    8. Chai, Daniel & Chiah, Mardy & Zhong, Angel & Li, Bob, 2022. "Another look at sources of momentum profits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 310-323.
    9. Dobrynskaya, Victoria, 2019. "Avoiding momentum crashes: Dynamic momentum and contrarian trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    11. Xiaoyue Chen & Bin Li & Andrew C. Worthington, 2022. "Realised volatility and industry momentum returns," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Grobys, Klaus & Heinonen, Jari-Pekka & Kolari, James, 2018. "Return dispersion risk in FX and global equity markets: Does it explain currency momentum?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 264-280.
    13. Koziol, Christian & Proelss, Juliane, 2021. "An explanation for momentum with a rational model under symmetric information – Evidence from cross country equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2021. "Momentum-managed equity factors," SAFE Working Paper Series 317, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Friedrich-Carl Franz & Tobias Regele, 2016. "Beating the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX: investment strategies in Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 161-204, May.
    16. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2017. "Dynamic Momentum and Contrarian Trading," HSE Working papers WP BRP 61/FE/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Skewness; Market efficiency; Return predictability; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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