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Experimental evidence on varying uncertainty and skewness in laboratory double-auction markets

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  • Huber, Jürgen
  • Kirchler, Michael
  • Stefan, Matthias

Abstract

We investigate the influence of skewness in asset fundamentals on asset prices under different states of uncertainty in double-auction markets. Three different types of assets are considered: risky assets, ambiguous assets and assets where the fundamental value distribution can be learned by repeated sampling of realizations. We show that market prices for skewed assets initially differ from those of non-skewed assets for risky as well as for ambiguous assets. Because of learning, the difference in market prices mostly disappears towards the end of trading. When fundamentals are “learned” by experience sampling, prices of all assets, irrespective of skewness, are very efficient from the beginning. Thus, when probabilities are not described but experienced, subjects are better able to estimate the fundamental value of an asset.

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  • Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Stefan, Matthias, 2014. "Experimental evidence on varying uncertainty and skewness in laboratory double-auction markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 798-809.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:107:y:2014:i:pb:p:798-809
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.04.004
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    2. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    3. Armando Holzknecht & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Tibor Neugebauer, 2024. "Speculating in zero-value assets: The greater fool game experiment," Working Papers 2024-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    4. Carrillo, Juan & Brocas, Isabelle & Giga, Aleksandar & Zapatero, Fernando, 2016. "Skewness Seeking in a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Georgalos, Konstantinos & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David, 2024. "The Kőszegi–Rabin expectations-based model and risk-apportionment tasks for elicitation of higher order risk preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 749-770.
    6. Christoph Huber & Julia Rose, 2019. "Do individual attitudes towards imprecision survive in experimental asset markets?," Working Papers 2019-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    7. Griffin, John, 2017. "Risk premia and ambiguity in an experimental market featuring a long-lived asset," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 21-27.
    8. Annalisa Fabretti & Tommy Gärling & Stefano Herzel & Martin Holmen, 2017. "Convex incentives in financial markets: an agent-based analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 40(1), pages 375-395, November.
    9. Andrea Albertazzi & Friederike Mengel & Ronald Peeters, 2021. "Benchmarking information aggregation in experimental markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1500-1516, October.
    10. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González, 2023. "On The Appeal Of Complexity," Working Papers 2312, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    11. Trautmann, Stefan T. & Kuilen, Gijs van de, 2018. "Higher order risk attitudes: A review of experimental evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 108-124.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental finance; Skewness; Ambiguity; Risk; Experience sampling; Market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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