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Career lotto? Labor supply in a superstar market

Author

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  • Grove, Wayne A.
  • Jetter, Michael
  • Papps, Kerry L.

Abstract

Are people prone to selecting occupations with highly skewed income distributions, irrespective of the mean and variance of their expected earnings? This paper introduces a basic theoretical framework to understand labor supply decisions in winner-take-all markets. Assembling a comprehensive longitudinal dataset of potential tennis professionals (a typical superstar market), we use objective and publicly known rankings to construct earnings projections before each player decides whether to enter that labor market. Player- and cohort-age fixed effects account for unobservable factors at the individual level and within a given cohort and year. We find prospective tennis professionals are attracted to highly skewed earnings distributions, independent of mean and variance. Hypothetically, if skewness in prize money fell to the level of the overall US labor market, males would be 7.2% and females 2.6% less likely to continue pursuing a professional tennis career, on average. Superstar labor markets may therefore systematically encourage those with modest talents to pursue long-shot careers.

Suggested Citation

  • Grove, Wayne A. & Jetter, Michael & Papps, Kerry L., 2021. "Career lotto? Labor supply in a superstar market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 362-376.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:183:y:2021:i:c:p:362-376
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.12.026
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Johannes Kasinger & Dmitrij Schneider, 2024. "Skewness Preferences: Evidence from Online Poker," CESifo Working Paper Series 10977, CESifo.
    2. Bougherara, Douadia & Friesen, Lana & Nauges, Céline, 2022. "Risk-taking and skewness-seeking behavior in a demographically diverse population," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 83-104.
    3. Deutscher, Christian & Neuberg, Lena & Thiem, Stefan, 2023. "Who’s afraid of the GOATs? - Shadow effects of tennis superstars," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Christiana E. Hilmer & Michael J. Hilmer, 2022. "Insights from a decade in the life of public Ph.D.‐granting agricultural economics departments," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 2049-2063, December.
    5. Markus Dertwinkel‐Kalt & Jonas Frey, 2024. "Optimal Stopping In A Dynamic Salience Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 885-913, May.
    6. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2022. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," SAFE Working Paper Series 351, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Superstar markets; Winner-take-all markets; Labor supply; Human capital; Skewness preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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