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Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC

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  • Bley, Jorg
  • Saad, Mohsen

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of idiosyncratic volatility of seven frontier markets in six GCC countries. We find a significant (marginal) negative relationship between expected returns and lagged idiosyncratic volatility for individual stocks in Saudi Arabia (Qatar) but none in Kuwait and Abu Dhabi. However, when we estimate conditional idiosyncratic volatility either by EGARCH or AR Models, the relationship turns positive. Introducing unexpected idiosyncratic volatility as an explanatory variable to control for any unexpected returns uncovers the true relationship between expected idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns. The evidence turns out to be robust for return reversals and other control variables. Moreover, the pricing of idiosyncratic risk is less evident in higher country governance and seems to be unrelated to the degree of financial development.

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  • Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2012. "Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 538-554.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:3:p:538-554
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.01.004
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    2. Wil Martens & Prem Yapa & Maryam Safari, 2021. "Earnings Management in Frontier Market: Do Institutional Settings Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Taylor, Grantley & Hossain, Mahmud, 2015. "Disaggregation, auditor conservatism and implied cost of equity capital: An international evidence from the GCC," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 66-98.
    4. Hafiz Hoque & Heng Liu, 2023. "Impact of bank regulation on risk of Islamic and conventional banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1025-1062, January.
    5. Mahmoud Agha & Baban Eulaiwi, 2020. "The alignment effects of CEO stock incentives in the presence of government ownership: International evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 195-222, May.
    6. Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P. & Khalifa, Ahmed A.A., 2015. "Oil price risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns: The case of net exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-140.
    8. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Taylor, Grantley, 2019. "Market risk disclosures and corporate governance structure: Evidence from GCC financial firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 136-150.
    9. Alqahtani, Jubran & Duong, Lien & Taylor, Grantley & Eulaiwi, Baban, 2022. "Outside directors, firm life cycle, corporate financial decisions and firm performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "Does idiosyncratic volatility matter in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-160.
    11. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Bin Liu & Monica Tan & Marie-Anne Cam, 2019. "Reinvestigate the Bid–Ask Bounce Effect and Pricing of Idiosyncratic Volatility: The Case of the Australian Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq & Park, Jin Suk, 2019. "The impact of trade intensity and Market characteristics on asymmetric volatility, spillovers and asymmetric spillovers: Evidence from the response of international stock markets to US shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 79-94.
    14. Abdulsamad Alazzani & Wan Nordin Wan-Hussin & Michael Jones & Ahmed Al-hadi, 2021. "ESG Reporting and Analysts’ Recommendations in GCC: The Moderation Role of Royal Family Directors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic risk; Expected stock returns; GCC markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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