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Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field

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  • Stephen G Dimmock
  • Roy Kouwenberg
  • Olivia S Mitchell
  • Kim Peijnenburg

Abstract

We test whether probability weighting affects household portfolio choice in a representative survey. On average, people display inverse-S-shaped probability weighting, overweighting low probability events. As theory predicts, probability weighting is positively associated with portfolio underdiversification and significant Sharpe ratio losses. Analyzing respondents’ individual stock holdings, we find higher probability weighting is associated with owning lottery-type stocks and positively skewed equity portfolios. People with higher probability weighting are less likely to own mutual funds and more likely to either avoid equities or hold individual stocks. We are the first to empirically link individuals’ elicited probability weighting and real-world decisions under risk.

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  • Stephen G Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2021. "Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4524-4563.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:9:p:4524-4563.
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    7. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    8. Chen, Rongxin & Lepori, Gabriele M. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Sung, Ming-Chien, 2022. "Can salience theory explain investor behaviour? Real-world evidence from the cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Montone, Maurizio, 2023. "Beta, value, and growth: Do dichotomous risk-preferences explain stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
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    11. Kanin Anantanasuwong & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kim Peijnenberg, 2019. "Ambiguity Attitudes about Investments: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 25561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. Xie, Yuxin & Tang, Ruohua & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2024. "Narrow framing and under-diversification: Empirical evidence from Chinese households," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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