IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v64y2023ics0275531922002252.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does expected idiosyncratic skewness of firms' profit predict the cross-section of stock returns? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qun
  • Zhang, Peihui
  • Liu, Hao

Abstract

Motivated by existing evidence of a preference among investors for assets with lottery-like payoffs and for portfolios that are under-diversified, this study investigates the relation between expected idiosyncratic skewness of firms' profit (EISP) and cross-sectional stock returns, using samples from the Chinese A-share market. Portfolio-level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions suggest that firms with higher EISP have lower expected returns than those with lower EISP. A long-short value-weighted portfolio can earn an annualized risk-adjusted excess return (i.e., Fama-French five-factor alpha) of 11.3% when sorting by the EISP. The negative effect of EISP on the cross-sectional stock returns is robust to controlling for well-documented firm characteristics and risk factors, rather than being subsumed by firms' profit instability or accounting-based downside risk. Of particular interest, the effect is more pronounced among stocks with more lottery-like characteristics, indicating that the immaturity of investors is an underlying driver of the mispricing in the effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qun & Zhang, Peihui & Liu, Hao, 2023. "Does expected idiosyncratic skewness of firms' profit predict the cross-section of stock returns? Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531922002252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101839
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531922002252
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101839?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Firms' profit instability and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2019. "Size and value in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 48-69.
    3. Conrad, Jennifer & Kapadia, Nishad & Xing, Yuhang, 2014. "Death and jackpot: Why do individual investors hold overpriced stocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 455-475.
    4. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    5. Luo, Yan & Wang, Xiaohuan & Zhang, Chenyang & Huang, Wei, 2021. "Accounting-based downside risk and expected stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Du, Qingjie & Wang, Yang & Wei, K.C. John, 2020. "Does cash-based operating profitability explain the accruals anomaly in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    8. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
    9. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    10. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    11. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    12. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    14. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    15. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    16. Mueller,Dennis C., 1986. "Profits in the Long Run," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521306935.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    18. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    19. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. Andreas Stephan & Andriy Tsapin, 2008. "Persistence and Determinants of Firm Profit in Emerging Markets," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 231-254.
    22. Doina C. Chichernea & Haimanot Kassa & Steve L. Slezak, 2019. "Lottery preferences and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 655-683, June.
    23. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
    24. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    25. Francisco Barillas & Jay Shanken, 2018. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 715-754, April.
    26. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    27. Jiang, Fuwei & Qi, Xinlin & Tang, Guohao, 2018. "Q-theory, mispricing, and profitability premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-149.
    28. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    29. Yao, Shouyu & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Fang, Zhenming, 2019. "Idiosyncratic skewness, gambling preference, and cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 464-483.
    30. Gu, Ming & Kang, Wenjin & Xu, Bu, 2018. "Limits of arbitrage and idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from China stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 240-258.
    31. Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
    32. Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Barbara Petracci & Massimo Spisni, 2014. "Determinants of profitability in the EU-15 area," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 763-775, June.
    33. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2020. "Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    34. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    35. Mueller,Dennis C., 2009. "Profits in the Long Run," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521101592.
    36. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
    37. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2015. "Religion and Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 169-195, April.
    38. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
    39. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    40. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Murray, Scott & Tang, Yi, 2017. "A Lottery-Demand-Based Explanation of the Beta Anomaly," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2369-2397, December.
    41. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    42. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lu, Fangzhou & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2021. "The real value of China’s stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 679-696.
    43. Kumar, Alok, 2009. "Hard-to-Value Stocks, Behavioral Biases, and Informed Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1375-1401, December.
    44. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    45. Adelina Gschwandtner, 2012. "Evolution Of Profit Persistence In The Usa: Evidence From Three Periods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80(2), pages 172-209, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiao, Tongshuai & Ding, Wenjie & Han, Liyan & Li, Donghui, 2024. "RMB exchange rate volatility and the cross-section of Chinese A-share returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    2. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Firms' profit instability and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    4. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2023. "Salience theory in price and trading volume: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 38-61.
    5. Liu, Bibo & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2020. "Time-varying demand for lottery: Speculation ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 789-817.
    6. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    7. Kwon, Kyung Yoon & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Sun, Chenfei, 2022. "Enhancing the profitability of lottery strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 166-184.
    8. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    9. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    10. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    12. Yin, Libo & Yang, Zhichen, 2022. "The profitability effect: Insight from a dynamic perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    14. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "An alternative behavioral explanation for the MAX effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 868-886.
    15. Jiang, Fuwei & Qi, Xinlin & Tang, Guohao, 2018. "Q-theory, mispricing, and profitability premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-149.
    16. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.
    17. Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal, 2019. "Short Interest and Lottery Stocks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 187-227, March.
    18. Chen, Dongxu & Wu, Ke & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "Stock return asymmetry in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    20. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected idiosyncratic skewness of firms' profit; Mispricing; Lottery preferences; Chinese stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531922002252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.