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The change in salience and the cross-section of stock returns: Empirical evidence from China A-shares

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  • Zhang, Manqing
  • Ma, Yao
  • Yang, Baochen
  • Fan, Ying

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between stocks' change in salience (CS) and the cross-section of stock returns. We find that the change in salience can negatively predict future stock returns. Investors, attracted by salient attributes of choices, overestimate prominent rising trends in stock historical return performance and extrapolate, leading stocks with prominent rising trends to be overpriced and earning lower subsequent returns. In terms of potential mechanisms, we find that costly arbitrage and lottery preference are two underlying mechanisms behind the mispricing of CS. The CS effect is more pronounced among stocks with greater costly arbitrage and greater lottery preference. Moreover, both institutional and individual investors are shown to generate distortions of expectations induced by salient thinking. Our findings are robust after considering common risk factors, shell contamination, short-term reversals, the prospect theory, and investor attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Manqing & Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Fan, Ying, 2024. "The change in salience and the cross-section of stock returns: Empirical evidence from China A-shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:85:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24000702
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102319
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Salience theory; Change in salience; Return predictability; Costly arbitrage; Lottery preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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