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Beta and Coskewness Pricing: Perspective from Probability Weighting

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  • Shi, Yun
  • Cui, Xiangyu
  • Zhou, Xunyu

Abstract

The security market line is often flat or downward-sloping. We hypothesize that probability weighting plays a role and that one ought to differentiate between periods in which agents overweight extreme events and those in which they underweight them. Overweighting inflates the probability of extremely bad events and demands greater compensation for beta risk. Underweighting has the opposite effect. Overall, these two effects offset each other, resulting in a flat or slightly negative return--beta relationship. Similarly, overweighting the tails enhances the negative relationship between return and coskewness, whereas underweighting reduces it. We support our theory through an extensive empirical study.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Yun & Cui, Xiangyu & Zhou, Xunyu, 2020. "Beta and Coskewness Pricing: Perspective from Probability Weighting," SocArXiv 5rqhv, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5rqhv
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/5rqhv
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Hu & Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2021. "Consistent Investment of Sophisticated Rank-Dependent Utility Agents in Continuous Time," Post-Print hal-02624308, HAL.
    2. Ying Hu & Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2020. "Consistent Investment of Sophisticated Rank-Dependent Utility Agents in Continuous Time," Working Papers hal-02624308, HAL.
    3. Ying Hu & Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2021. "Consistent investment of sophisticated rank‐dependent utility agents in continuous time," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1056-1095, July.
    4. Ying Hu & Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2020. "Consistent Investment of Sophisticated Rank-Dependent Utility Agents in Continuous Time," Papers 2006.01979, arXiv.org.

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