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Asset pricing for the lottery-like security under probability weighting: Based on generalized Wang transform

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  • Huang, Helen Hui
  • Sun, Jianchun
  • Zhang, Shunming

Abstract

We present a two-stage lottery model with the generalized Wang transform as a probability weighting function to formally derive investors’ demand for the lottery-like security. Probability overweight on higher expected payoffs accounts for investors’ overvaluation of the security with moderately lottery-like feature, raising the demand and driving up the price. Investors’ aggressive demand is enhanced by optimistic attitude segmented from probability weighting function and weakened by probability distortion towards extreme events if considering fundamental risks. Our model predicts overpricing in small securities with optimistic investors, and implies skewness pricing and “realized kurtosis puzzle”.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Helen Hui & Sun, Jianchun & Zhang, Shunming, 2024. "Asset pricing for the lottery-like security under probability weighting: Based on generalized Wang transform," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102078
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lottery-like security pricing; Two-stage lottery model; Probability weighting; The generalized wang transform; Optimal strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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