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Jakub Nowotarski

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Automated variable selection and shrinkage for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Umut Ugurlu & Oktay Tas & Aycan Kaya & Ilkay Oksuz, 2018. "The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts’ Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    6. Botman, Lola & Lago, Jesus & Fu, Xiaohan & Chia, Keaton & Wolf, Jesse & Kleissl, Jan & De Moor, Bart, 2024. "Building plug load mode detection, forecasting and scheduling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    7. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    8. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    10. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Papers 2008.08004, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    11. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    12. Kin G. Olivares & Cristian Challu & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron & Artur Dubrawski, 2021. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/07, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    13. Demir, Sumeyra & Mincev, Krystof & Kok, Koen & Paterakis, Nikolaos G., 2021. "Data augmentation for time series regression: Applying transformations, autoencoders and adversarial networks to electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    14. Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
    15. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    16. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2017. "Variance stabilizing transformations for electricity spot price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    17. Nikodinoska, Dragana & Käso, Mathias & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    18. Rodrigo A. de Marcos & Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    19. Muniain, Peru & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1193-1210.
    20. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    21. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    22. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Working Papers No 2/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    23. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    24. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    25. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    26. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    27. Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    28. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    29. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    30. Sergei Kulakov, 2020. "X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, February.
    31. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    32. Miguel Pinhão & Miguel Fonseca & Ricardo Covas, 2022. "Electricity Spot Price Forecast by Modelling Supply and Demand Curve," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-20, June.
    33. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    34. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    35. Usman Zafar & Neil Kellard & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2022. "Multistage optimization filter for trend‐based short‐term forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 345-360, March.
    36. Bartosz Uniejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    37. Grzegorz Marcjasz, 2020. "Forecasting Electricity Prices Using Deep Neural Networks: A Robust Hyper-Parameter Selection Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    38. Li, Wei & Becker, Denis Mike, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    39. Peru Muniain & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Probabilistic Forecasting in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets: Simulating Peak and Off-Peak Prices," Papers 1810.08418, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    40. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    41. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    42. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1197-1213.
    43. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    44. Arkadiusz Jedrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2021. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Parameter-rich models estimated via the LASSO," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/04, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    45. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    46. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation forecasts in day-ahead forecasting of spot and intraday electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    47. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    48. Samarth Kumar & David Schönheit & Matthew Schmidt & Dominik Möst, 2019. "Parsing the Effects of Wind and Solar Generation on the German Electricity Trade Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    49. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    50. Linian Wang & Jianghong Liu & Huibin Zhang & Leye Wang, 2024. "Revisiting Day-ahead Electricity Price: Simple Model Save Millions," Papers 2405.14893, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    51. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2024. "Regularization for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2404.03968, arXiv.org.
    52. Florian Ziel, 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    53. Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2024. "Forecasting the Occurrence of Electricity Price Spikes: A Statistical-Economic Investigation Study," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, February.
    54. Javier Contreras, 2017. "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-2, January.
    55. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    56. Rafał Trzaska & Adam Sulich & Michał Organa & Jerzy Niemczyk & Bartosz Jasiński, 2021. "Digitalization Business Strategies in Energy Sector: Solving Problems with Uncertainty under Industry 4.0 Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    57. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    58. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Jesus Lago & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Neural networks in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Single vs. multiple outputs," Papers 2008.08006, arXiv.org.
    59. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    60. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    61. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    62. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    63. Hain, Martin & Kargus, Tobias & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "An electricity price modeling framework for renewable-dominant markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 66, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).

  2. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    2. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Alberto Menéndez Medina & José Antonio Heredia Álvaro, 2024. "Using Generative Pre-Trained Transformers (GPT) for Electricity Price Trend Forecasting in the Spanish Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    6. Raimund M. Kovacevic, 2019. "Arbitrage conditions for electricity markets with production and storage," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 671-696, October.
    7. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    9. Xiaoming Xie & Meiping Li & Du Zhang, 2021. "A Multiscale Electricity Price Forecasting Model Based on Tensor Fusion and Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Daniel Foronda-Pascual & Andrés M. Alonso, 2023. "Prediction of Matching Prices in Electricity Markets through Curve Representation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Riccardo De Blasis & Giovanni Batista Masala & Filippo Petroni, 2021. "A Multivariate High-Order Markov Model for the Income Estimation of a Wind Farm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Arne Vogler & Florian Ziel, "undated". "On The Evaluation Of Binary Event Probability Predictions In Electricity Price Forecasting," EWL Working Papers 1911, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    14. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Francesco Lisi & Ismail Shah, 2024. "Joint Component Estimation for Electricity Price Forecasting Using Functional Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Zoran Gligorić & Svetlana Štrbac Savić & Aleksandra Grujić & Milanka Negovanović & Omer Musić, 2018. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Model Using Interval-Valued Autoregressive Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    17. Oliver Grothe & Fabian Kachele & Fabian Kruger, 2022. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Papers 2204.10154, arXiv.org.
    18. Michał Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Ekaterina Abramova & Derek Bunn, 2021. "Optimal Daily Trading of Battery Operations Using Arbitrage Spreads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    20. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Papers 2008.08004, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    21. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    22. Kin G. Olivares & Cristian Challu & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron & Artur Dubrawski, 2021. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/07, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    23. Laura Böhm & Sebastian Kolb & Thomas Plankenbühler & Jonas Miederer & Simon Markthaler & Jürgen Karl, 2023. "Short-Term Natural Gas and Carbon Price Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-25, September.
    24. Lu, Renzhi & Bai, Ruichang & Huang, Yuan & Li, Yuting & Jiang, Junhui & Ding, Yuemin, 2021. "Data-driven real-time price-based demand response for industrial facilities energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    25. Karol Pilot & Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Krzysztof Kania, 2024. "Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, September.
    26. Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    27. Gianfreda, Angelica & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2023. "A worldwide analysis of the energy regulatory tasks and activities through the lenses of entropy and unsupervised statistical learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    28. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
    29. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    30. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    31. Raimund M. Kovacevic, 2019. "Valuation and pricing of electricity delivery contracts: the producer’s view," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 421-460, April.
    32. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    33. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    34. Mohamed Lotfi & Mohammad Javadi & Gerardo J. Osório & Cláudio Monteiro & João P. S. Catalão, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    35. He Jiang & Yao Dong & Jianzhou Wang, 2024. "Electricity price forecasting using quantile regression averaging with nonconvex regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1859-1879, September.
    36. Taylor, James W., 2021. "Evaluating quantile-bounded and expectile-bounded interval forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 800-811.
    37. John Boland & Adrian Grantham, 2018. "Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation," J, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
    38. Christian Pape & Arne Vogler & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Forecasting the distributions of hourly electricity spot prices," EWL Working Papers 1705, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised May 2017.
    39. Simon Hirsch & Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Online Distributional Regression," Papers 2407.08750, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    40. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    41. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    42. Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Dimitrios Sotiros, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices: Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/06, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    43. Chang, Chih-Hao & Chen, Zih-Bing & Huang, Shih-Feng, 2022. "Forecasting of high-resolution electricity consumption with stochastic climatic covariates via a functional time series approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    44. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    45. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    46. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Working Papers No 2/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    47. Hassan Ali & Han Phoumin & Beni Suryadi & Aitazaz A. Farooque & Raziq Yaqub, 2022. "Assessing ASEAN’s Liberalized Electricity Markets: The Case of Singapore and the Philippines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    48. Zhang, Hong & Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Pradhan, Biswajeet & Mai, Ngoc-Luan & Vu, Diep-Anh, 2021. "Proposing two novel hybrid intelligence models for forecasting copper price based on extreme learning machine and meta-heuristic algorithms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    49. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    50. Wanxing Sheng & Keyan Liu & Dongli Jia & Shuo Chen & Rongheng Lin, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Algorithm Based on LST-TCN in Power Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-13, August.
    51. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
    52. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    53. Jethro Browell & Ciaran Gilbert, 2022. "Predicting Electricity Imbalance Prices and Volumes: Capabilities and Opportunities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-7, May.
    54. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    55. Wu, Xiaomin & Cao, Weihua & Wang, Dianhong & Ding, Min & Yu, Liangjun & Nakanishi, Yosuke, 2021. "Demand response model based on improved Pareto optimum considering seasonal electricity prices for Dongfushan Island," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 926-936.
    56. Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
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  3. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    2. Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
    3. Ismail Shah & Francesco Lisi, 2020. "Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 242-259, March.
    4. Mohamed Lotfi & Mohammad Javadi & Gerardo J. Osório & Cláudio Monteiro & João P. S. Catalão, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Paul R. Nail & Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron, 2016. "The diamond model of social response within an agent-based approach," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    9. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    10. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.

  4. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
    3. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Bigerna, Simona, 2018. "Estimating temperature effects on the Italian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 257-269.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    6. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Papers 2008.08004, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    8. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
    9. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2020. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal & Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Tegnér, Martin & Skajaa, Anders, 2017. "Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 490-514.
    11. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2023. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1647-1679.
    12. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    13. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Yu, Vincent F. & Le, Thi Huynh Anh & Gupta, Jatinder N.D., 2022. "Sustainable microgrid design with multiple demand areas and peer-to-peer energy trading involving seasonal factors and uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Chang, Zihan & Zhang, Yang & Chen, Wenbo, 2019. "Electricity price prediction based on hybrid model of adam optimized LSTM neural network and wavelet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Pedregal, Diego J. & Trapero, Juan R., 2021. "Adjusted combination of moving averages: A forecasting system for medium-term solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    17. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    18. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    20. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    21. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
    22. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    23. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    24. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    25. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Levelized income loss as a metric of the adaptation of wind and energy storage to variable prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1179-1191.
    26. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    27. Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2024. "From day-ahead to mid and long-term horizons with econometric electricity price forecasting models," Papers 2406.00326, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    28. Mauro Bernardi & Francesco Lisi, 2020. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Zonal Electricity Prices and Demand Using Heteroscedastic Models: The IPEX Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-34, November.
    29. Dmitriy O. Afanasyev & Elena A. Fedorova & Evgeniy V. Gilenko, 2021. "The fundamental drivers of electricity price: a multi-scale adaptive regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1913-1938, April.
    30. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    31. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    32. Usman Zafar & Neil Kellard & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2022. "Multistage optimization filter for trend‐based short‐term forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 345-360, March.
    33. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    34. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    35. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    36. Arkadiusz Jedrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2021. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Parameter-rich models estimated via the LASSO," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/04, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    37. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    38. Hussain, I. & Ali, S.M. & Khan, B. & Ullah, Z. & Mehmood, C.A. & Jawad, M. & Farid, U. & Haider, A., 2019. "Stochastic Wind Energy Management Model within smart grid framework: A joint Bi-directional Service Level Agreement (SLA) between smart grid and Wind Energy District Prosumers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1017-1033.
    39. Emma Viviani & Luca Di Persio & Matthias Ehrhardt, 2021. "Energy Markets Forecasting. From Inferential Statistics to Machine Learning: The German Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-33, January.
    40. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    41. Yang, Changhui & Meng, Chen & Zhou, Kaile, 2018. "Residential electricity pricing in China: The context of price-based demand response," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2870-2878.
    42. Souhir Ben Amor & Heni Boubaker & Lotfi Belkacem, 2022. "A Dual Generalized Long Memory Modelling for Forecasting Electricity Spot Price: Neural Network and Wavelet Estimate," Papers 2204.08289, arXiv.org.
    43. Souhir Ben Amor & Heni Boubaker & Lotfi Belkacem, 2022. "Predictive Accuracy of a Hybrid Generalized Long Memory Model for Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 2204.09568, arXiv.org.
    44. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Jesus Lago & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Neural networks in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Single vs. multiple outputs," Papers 2008.08006, arXiv.org.
    45. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    46. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    47. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    48. Christian Giovanelli & Seppo Sierla & Ryutaro Ichise & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2018. "Exploiting Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Ancillary Energy Market Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.

  5. Bidong Liu & Jakub Nowotarski & Tao Hong & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging on sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yi & Von Krannichfeldt, Leandro & Zufferey, Thierry & Toubeau, Jean-François, 2021. "Short-term nodal voltage forecasting for power distribution grids: An ensemble learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "A Quantile Regression Model for Electricity Peak Demand Forecasting: An Approach to Avoiding Power Blackouts," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    4. Wang, Pu & Liu, Bidong & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 585-597.
    5. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    6. Caston Sigauke & Murendeni Maurel Nemukula & Daniel Maposa, 2018. "Probabilistic Hourly Load Forecasting Using Additive Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    8. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    9. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Probabilistic solar power forecasting based on weather scenario generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    10. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2018. "Quantile Regression Model for Peak Load Demand Forecasting with Approximation by Triangular Distribution to Avoid Blackouts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 119-124.
    11. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    12. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    13. Yang, Yandong & Li, Shufang & Li, Wenqi & Qu, Meijun, 2018. "Power load probability density forecasting using Gaussian process quantile regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-509.
    14. Jakub Nowotarski & Bidong Liu & Rafal Weron & Tao Hong, 2015. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    15. Liu, Tianhong & Qi, Shengli & Qiao, Xianzhu & Liu, Sixing, 2024. "A hybrid short-term wind power point-interval prediction model based on combination of improved preprocessing methods and entropy weighted GRU quantile regression network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    16. Huangjie Gong & Rosemary E. Alden & Aron Patrick & Dan M. Ionel, 2022. "Forecast of Community Total Electric Load and HVAC Component Disaggregation through a New LSTM-Based Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    17. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
    18. Sepehr Moalem & Roya M. Ahari & Ghazanfar Shahgholian & Majid Moazzami & Seyed Mohammad Kazemi, 2022. "Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Steel Complex Micro-Grid Electricity Supply Chain—A Coupled Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.

  6. Jakub Nowotarski & Bidong Liu & Rafal Weron & Tao Hong, 2015. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Umut Ugurlu & Oktay Tas & Aycan Kaya & Ilkay Oksuz, 2018. "The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts’ Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Nsangou, Jean Calvin & Kenfack, Joseph & Nzotcha, Urbain & Ngohe Ekam, Paul Salomon & Voufo, Joseph & Tamo, Thomas T., 2022. "Explaining household electricity consumption using quantile regression, decision tree and artificial neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    3. Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
    4. Tamara Schröter & André Richter & Jens Götze & André Naumann & Jenny Gronau & Martin Wolter, 2020. "Substation Related Forecasts of Electrical Energy Storage Systems: Transmission System Operator Requirements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-26, November.
    5. He, Yaoyao & Cao, Chaojin & Wang, Shuo & Fu, Hong, 2022. "Nonparametric probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile combination in electrical power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," Post-Print hal-01644930, HAL.
    7. Berk, K. & Hoffmann, A. & Müller, A., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of industrial electricity load with regime switching behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 147-162.
    8. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    9. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2303.10019, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    10. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    11. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    12. Fu, Guoyin, 2018. "Deep belief network based ensemble approach for cooling load forecasting of air-conditioning system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 269-282.
    13. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    14. Vogler–Finck, P.J.C. & Bacher, P. & Madsen, H., 2017. "Online short-term forecast of greenhouse heat load using a weather forecast service," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1298-1310.
    15. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    16. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    17. Wang, Jue & Wang, Zhen & Li, Xiang & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Artificial bee colony-based combination approach to forecasting agricultural commodity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 21-34.
    18. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    19. Sergei Kulakov, 2020. "X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, February.
    20. Xiao, Jin & Li, Yuxi & Xie, Ling & Liu, Dunhu & Huang, Jing, 2018. "A hybrid model based on selective ensemble for energy consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 534-546.
    21. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    22. Dadkhah, Mojtaba & Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Zare Chavoshi, Ahmad, 2018. "Short-term power output forecasting of hourly operation in power plant based on climate factors and effects of wind direction and wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 775-788.
    23. Katarzyna Hubicka & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    24. Federico Divina & Miguel García Torres & Francisco A. Goméz Vela & José Luis Vázquez Noguera, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting Methods for Short Term Electric Energy Consumption Prediction in Smart Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    25. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    26. Fu, Xin & Zeng, Xiao-Jun & Feng, Pengpeng & Cai, Xiuwen, 2018. "Clustering-based short-term load forecasting for residential electricity under the increasing-block pricing tariffs in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 76-89.
    27. Liu, Yang & Wang, Wei & Ghadimi, Noradin, 2017. "Electricity load forecasting by an improved forecast engine for building level consumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 18-30.
    28. Masoud Sobhani & Allison Campbell & Saurabh Sangamwar & Changlin Li & Tao Hong, 2019. "Combining Weather Stations for Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-11, April.
    29. Rafał Czapaj & Jacek Kamiński & Maciej Sołtysik, 2022. "A Review of Auto-Regressive Methods Applications to Short-Term Demand Forecasting in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-31, September.
    30. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Anargyros Dramountanis & Panagiotis G. Papaioannou, 2016. "Analysis and Modeling for Short- to Medium-Term Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Manifold Learning Principal Component Model and Comparison with Classical Statistical Models (SARIMAX, Exponential Smoot," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-40, August.
    31. Gabriel Trierweiler Ribeiro & João Guilherme Sauer & Naylene Fraccanabbia & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2020. "Bayesian Optimized Echo State Network Applied to Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, May.
    32. Zhineng Hu & Jing Ma & Liangwei Yang & Liming Yao & Meng Pang, 2019. "Monthly electricity demand forecasting using empirical mode decomposition-based state space model," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(7), pages 1236-1254, November.
    33. Rendon-Sanchez, Juan F. & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2019. "Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 916-924.
    34. Macmillan, Madeline & Zolan, Alexander & Bazilian, Morgan & Villa, Daniel L., 2024. "Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

  7. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Jakub Nowotarski, 2015. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    2. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    3. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    4. Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
    6. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    7. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    8. He Jiang & Yao Dong & Jianzhou Wang, 2024. "Electricity price forecasting using quantile regression averaging with nonconvex regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1859-1879, September.
    9. Ekaterina Abramova & Derek Bunn, 2020. "Forecasting the Intra-Day Spread Densities of Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Muniain, Peru & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1193-1210.
    11. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    12. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka, 2024. "Multiple split approach -- multidimensional probabilistic forecasting of electricity markets," Papers 2407.07795, arXiv.org.
    13. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. Christian Pape & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Estimating the value of flexibility from real options: On the accuracy of hybrid electricity price models," EWL Working Papers 1804, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    15. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    16. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Working Papers No 2/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub, 2016. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1051-1056.
    18. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
    19. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    20. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    21. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
    22. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    23. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    24. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    25. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    26. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    27. Ekaterina Abramova & Derek Bunn, 2020. "Forecasting the Intra-Day Spread Densities of Electricity Prices," Papers 2002.10566, arXiv.org.
    28. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    29. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    30. Bartosz Uniejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    31. Lehna, Malte & Scheller, Fabian & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    32. Peru Muniain & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Probabilistic Forecasting in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets: Simulating Peak and Off-Peak Prices," Papers 1810.08418, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    33. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    34. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    35. Kostrzewski, Maciej & Kostrzewska, Jadwiga, 2019. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with Bayesian stochastic volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 610-620.
    36. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    37. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Micha{l} Narajewski & Rafa{l} Weron & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2207.02832, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    38. Claudio Monteiro & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez, 2018. "Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, April.
    39. Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/19/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, revised 06 Jul 2019.
    40. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    41. Emma Viviani & Luca Di Persio & Matthias Ehrhardt, 2021. "Energy Markets Forecasting. From Inferential Statistics to Machine Learning: The German Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-33, January.
    42. Anne Opschoor & Dewi Peerlings & Luca Rossini & Andre Lucas, 2024. "Density Forecasting for Electricity Prices under Tail Heterogeneity with the t-Riesz Distribution," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    43. Ziel, Florian, 2019. "Quantile regression for the qualifying match of GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1400-1408.
    44. Yang, Dongchuan & Guo, Ju-e & Sun, Shaolong & Han, Jing & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "An interval decomposition-ensemble approach with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    45. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    46. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.

  8. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Merging quantile regression with forecast averaging to obtain more accurate interval forecasts of Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    2. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    3. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
    4. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    5. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    6. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    7. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    8. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2014. "Fundamental and speculative shocks, what drives electricity prices?," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

  9. Tao Hong & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging of independent expert forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "A Quantile Regression Model for Electricity Peak Demand Forecasting: An Approach to Avoiding Power Blackouts," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Wang, Pu & Liu, Bidong & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 585-597.
    3. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2018. "Quantile Regression Model for Peak Load Demand Forecasting with Approximation by Triangular Distribution to Avoid Blackouts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 119-124.

  10. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/09, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
    3. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Raviv, Eran & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2014. "An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 395-412.
    6. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    7. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    8. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Ulrich, Matthias & Jahnke, Hermann & Langrock, Roland & Pesch, Robert & Senge, Robin, 2022. "Classification-based model selection in retail demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 209-223.
    10. Michał Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Shao, Zhen & Yang, ShanLin & Gao, Fei & Zhou, KaiLe & Lin, Peng, 2017. "A new electricity price prediction strategy using mutual information-based SVM-RFE classification," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 330-341.
    12. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    13. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
    14. Yun Duan, 2022. "A Novel Interval Energy-Forecasting Method for Sustainable Building Management Based on Deep Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
    16. Raiden Skala & Mohamed Ahmed T. A. Elgalhud & Katarina Grolinger & Syed Mir, 2023. "Interval Load Forecasting for Individual Households in the Presence of Electric Vehicle Charging," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Mawuli Segnon & Chi Keung Lau & Bernd Wilfling & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data," CQE Working Papers 6117, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    18. Agustín A. Sánchez de la Nieta & Virginia González & Javier Contreras, 2016. "Portfolio Decision of Short-Term Electricity Forecasted Prices through Stochastic Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    19. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    20. He Jiang & Yao Dong & Jianzhou Wang, 2024. "Electricity price forecasting using quantile regression averaging with nonconvex regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1859-1879, September.
    21. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    22. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    23. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    24. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    25. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    26. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    27. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub, 2016. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1051-1056.
    28. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
    29. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    30. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    31. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
    32. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    33. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    34. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    35. He, Yaoyao & Zheng, Yaya, 2018. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on Yeo-Johnson transformation quantile regression and Gaussian kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 143-156.
    36. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "A quantile regression analysis of China's provincial CO2 emissions: Where does the difference lie?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 328-342.
    37. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    38. Christopher Koch & Philipp Maskos, 2020. "Passive Balancing Through Intraday Trading: Whether Interactions Between Short-term Trading and Balancing Stabilize Germany s Electricity System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 101-112.
    39. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    40. Yang, Yandong & Li, Shufang & Li, Wenqi & Qu, Meijun, 2018. "Power load probability density forecasting using Gaussian process quantile regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-509.
    41. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    42. Marta Poncela-Blanco & Pilar Poncela, 2021. "Improving Wind Power Forecasts: Combination through Multivariate Dimension Reduction Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, March.
    43. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Day-Ahead vs. Intraday—Forecasting the Price Spread to Maximize Economic Benefits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
    44. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    45. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
    46. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    47. Abeer Alshejari & Vassilis S. Kodogiannis & Stavros Leonidis, 2020. "Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-24, March.
    48. Li, Wei & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2022. "Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    49. Andersson, Jonas & Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh, 2023. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices using an augmented LMARX-model," Discussion Papers 2023/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    50. Bidong Liu & Jakub Nowotarski & Tao Hong & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging on sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    51. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    52. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    53. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    54. Graziani, Carlo & Rosner, Robert & Adams, Jennifer M. & Machete, Reason L., 2021. "Probabilistic recalibration of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27.
    55. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2016. "Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 435-454.
    56. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    57. Micha{l} Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices," Papers 2205.11439, arXiv.org.
    58. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    59. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Micha{l} Narajewski & Rafa{l} Weron & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2207.02832, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    60. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    61. Simões, Paulo Fernando Mahaz & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Calili, Rodrigo Flora & Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira, 2020. "Analysis and short-term predictions of non-technical loss of electric power based on mixed effects models," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    62. Tryggvi Jónsson & Pierre Pinson & Henrik Madsen & Henrik Aalborg Nielsen, 2014. "Predictive Densities for Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time-Adaptive Quantile Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
    63. Gunnhildur H. Steinbakk & Alex Lenkoski & Ragnar Bang Huseby & Anders L{o}land & Tor Arne {O}ig{aa}rd, 2018. "Using published bid/ask curves to error dress spot electricity price forecasts," Papers 1812.02433, arXiv.org.
    64. Huisman, Ronald & Stet, Cristian, 2022. "The dependence of quantile power prices on supply from renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    65. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
    66. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    67. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    68. Monjazeb, Mohammad Reza & Amiri, Hossein & Movahedi, Akram, 2024. "Wholesale electricity price forecasting by Quantile Regression and Kalman Filter method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    69. Ulrich, Matthias & Jahnke, Hermann & Langrock, Roland & Pesch, Robert & Senge, Robin, 2021. "Distributional regression for demand forecasting in e-grocery," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 831-842.
    70. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    71. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    72. Antonio Bello & Derek Bunn & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Parametric Density Recalibration of a Fundamental Market Model to Forecast Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.
    73. Florian Ziel, 2015. "Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices using Lasso: On Capturing the Autoregressive Intraday Structure," Papers 1509.01966, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    74. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    75. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert, 2017. "Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 1703.10806, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    76. Joanna Janczura & Aleksandra Michalak, 2020. "Optimization of Electric Energy Sales Strategy Based on Probabilistic Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, February.
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  11. Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Nowotarski, 2013. "Short-term forecasting of electricity spot prices using model averaging (Krótkoterminowe prognozowanie spotowych cen energii elektrycznej z wykorzystaniem uśredniania modeli)," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/17, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    3. Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Usman Zafar & Neil Kellard & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2022. "Multistage optimization filter for trend‐based short‐term forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 345-360, March.

  12. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/12, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yi & Von Krannichfeldt, Leandro & Zufferey, Thierry & Toubeau, Jean-François, 2021. "Short-term nodal voltage forecasting for power distribution grids: An ensemble learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
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    22. Weronika Nitka & Rafał Weron, 2023. "Combining predictive distributions of electricity prices. Does minimizing the CRPS lead to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 33(3), pages 105-118.
    23. Tao Hong & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging of independent expert forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    24. Ekaterina Abramova & Derek Bunn, 2020. "Forecasting the Intra-Day Spread Densities of Electricity Prices," Papers 2002.10566, arXiv.org.
    25. Jakub Nowotarski & Bidong Liu & Rafal Weron & Tao Hong, 2015. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    26. Miguel Pinhão & Miguel Fonseca & Ricardo Covas, 2022. "Electricity Spot Price Forecast by Modelling Supply and Demand Curve," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-20, June.
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    29. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Merging quantile regression with forecast averaging to obtain more accurate interval forecasts of Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    2. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
    4. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
    5. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    7. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction," CQE Working Papers 9722, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    9. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
    10. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Papers 2008.08004, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    11. Kin G. Olivares & Cristian Challu & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron & Artur Dubrawski, 2021. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/07, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    12. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
    13. Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Mawuli Segnon & Chi Keung Lau & Bernd Wilfling & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data," CQE Working Papers 6117, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
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    29. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    30. Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Dimitrios Sotiros, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices: Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/06, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    31. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
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    36. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
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    38. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Todorova, Neda, 2017. "Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 228-247.
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    40. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    41. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
    42. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
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    45. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
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    47. Daud Ali Aser & Esin Firuzan, 2022. "Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 1-25, December.
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    65. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    66. Katarzyna Hubicka & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    67. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation forecasts in day-ahead forecasting of spot and intraday electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    68. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    69. Derek Bunn, Arne Andresen, Dipeng Chen, Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Analysis and Forecasting of Electricty Price Risks with Quantile Factor Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    70. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    71. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    72. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    73. Mirakyan, Atom & Meyer-Renschhausen, Martin & Koch, Andreas, 2017. "Composite forecasting approach, application for next-day electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 228-237.
    74. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2024. "Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts," Papers 2406.06235, arXiv.org.
    75. Bidong Liu & Jiali Liu & Tao Hong, 2015. "Sister models for load forecast combination," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    76. Djula Borozan & Luka Borozan, 2019. "Examining the Industrial Energy Consumption Determinants: A Panel Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    77. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    78. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
    79. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    80. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    81. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    82. Carlos Henrique Dias Cordeiro de Castro & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2023. "Forecasting inflation time series using score‐driven dynamic models and combination methods: The case of Brazil," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 369-401, March.
    83. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    84. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.

  14. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafal, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 42563, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    2. Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena, 2015. "The long-term trends on Russian electricity market: comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," MPRA Paper 62391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nowotarski, Jakub & Raviv, Eran & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2014. "An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 395-412.
    4. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2015. "A note on using the Hodrick–Prescott filter in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    7. Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia & Musti, Silvana, 2016. "Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-102.
    8. I A Eckley & G P Nason, 2018. "A test for the absence of aliasing or local white noise in locally stationary wavelet time series," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(4), pages 833-848.
    9. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Papers 2008.08004, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    10. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
    11. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
    12. Jakub Nowotarski, 2013. "Short-term forecasting of electricity spot prices using model averaging (Krótkoterminowe prognozowanie spotowych cen energii elektrycznej z wykorzystaniem uśredniania modeli)," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/17, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    13. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2020. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
    15. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    16. Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Méritet, 2014. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Post-Print hal-01502835, HAL.
    17. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "A dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Kriechbaumer, Thomas & Angus, Andrew & Parsons, David & Rivas Casado, Monica, 2014. "An improved wavelet–ARIMA approach for forecasting metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-41.
    19. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    20. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    21. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    22. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    23. Patrick Hénaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2018. "Gas Storage Valuation and Hedging: A Quantification of Model Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, March.
    24. Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    25. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    26. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    27. Francisco Javier Duque-Pintor & Manuel Jesús Fernández-Gómez & Alicia Troncoso & Francisco Martínez-Álvarez, 2016. "A New Methodology Based on Imbalanced Classification for Predicting Outliers in Electricity Demand Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-10, September.
    28. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    29. Tommaso Proietti & Niels Haldrup & Oskar Knapik, 2017. "Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices," CREATES Research Papers 2017-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    30. Nadja Klein & Michael Stanley Smith & David J. Nott, 2020. "Deep Distributional Time Series Models and the Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices," Papers 2010.01844, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    31. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    32. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    33. Ida Bakke & Stein-Erik Fleten & Lars Ivar Hagfors & Verena Hagspiel & Beate Norheim & Sonja Wogrin, 2016. "Investment in electric energy storage under uncertainty: a real options approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-500, July.
    34. Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
    36. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    37. Xuguang Yu & Gang Li & Chuntian Cheng & Yongjun Sun & Ran Chen, 2019. "Research and Application of Continuous Bidirectional Trading Mechanism in Yunnan Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    38. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    39. Arkadiusz Jedrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2021. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Parameter-rich models estimated via the LASSO," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/04, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    40. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    41. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    42. Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
    43. Yuze Li & Shangrong Jiang & Xuerong Li & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Hybrid data decomposition-based deep learning for Bitcoin prediction and algorithm trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    44. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    45. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2016. "The long-term trends on the electricity markets: Comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 432-442.

Articles

  1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub, 2016. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1051-1056.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Nowotarski, Jakub & Raviv, Eran & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2014. "An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 395-412.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of articles recorded.

Software components

    Sorry, no citations of software components recorded.
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