IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i7p1906-d159229.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploiting Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Ancillary Energy Market Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Giovanelli

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland)

  • Seppo Sierla

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland)

  • Ryutaro Ichise

    (National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo 100-0003, Japan)

  • Valeriy Vyatkin

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland
    SRT, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå 97187, Sweden
    International Research Laboratory of Computer Technologies, ITMO University, St. Petersburgh 197101, Russia)

Abstract

The increase of distributed energy resources in the smart grid calls for new ways to profitably exploit these resources, which can participate in day-ahead ancillary energy markets by providing flexibility. Higher profits are available for resource owners that are able to anticipate price peaks and hours of low prices or zero prices, as well as to control the resource in such a way that exploits the price fluctuations. Thus, this study presents a solution in which artificial neural networks are exploited to predict the day-ahead ancillary energy market prices. The study employs the frequency containment reserve for the normal operations market as a case study and presents the methodology utilized for the prediction of the case study ancillary market prices. The relevant data sources for predicting the market prices are identified, then the frequency containment reserve market prices are analyzed and compared with the spot market prices. In addition, the methodology describes the choices behind the definition of the model validation method and the performance evaluation coefficient utilized in the study. Moreover, the empirical processes for designing an artificial neural network model are presented. The performance of the artificial neural network model is evaluated in detail by means of several experiments, showing robustness and adaptiveness to the fast-changing price behaviors. Finally, the developed artificial neural network model is shown to have better performance than two state of the art models, support vector regression and ARIMA, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Giovanelli & Seppo Sierla & Ryutaro Ichise & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2018. "Exploiting Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Ancillary Energy Market Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1906-:d:159229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1906/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1906/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Koo, Bonsoo, 2018. "A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-83.
    2. Gianluca Bontempi & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Yann-Aël Le Borgne, 2013. "Machine learning strategies for time series forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/167761, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    4. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    5. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    6. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    7. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    8. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    9. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    10. Wang, Peng & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Rosehart, William D., 2011. "Characteristics of the prices of operating reserves and regulation services in competitive electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3210-3221, June.
    11. Raineri, R. & Rios, S. & Schiele, D., 2006. "Technical and economic aspects of ancillary services markets in the electric power industry: an international comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1540-1555, September.
    12. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    13. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
    14. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonopoulos, Ioannis & Robu, Valentin & Couraud, Benoit & Kirli, Desen & Norbu, Sonam & Kiprakis, Aristides & Flynn, David & Elizondo-Gonzalez, Sergio & Wattam, Steve, 2020. "Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches to energy demand-side response: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Kempitiya, Thimal & Sierla, Seppo & De Silva, Daswin & Yli-Ojanperä, Matti & Alahakoon, Damminda & Vyatkin, Valeriy, 2020. "An Artificial Intelligence framework for bidding optimization with uncertainty in multiple frequency reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    3. Harri Aaltonen & Seppo Sierla & Rakshith Subramanya & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2021. "A Simulation Environment for Training a Reinforcement Learning Agent Trading a Battery Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Niko Karhula & Seppo Sierla & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2021. "Validating the Real-Time Performance of Distributed Energy Resources Participating on Primary Frequency Reserves," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Emil Kraft & Dogan Keles & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "Modeling of frequency containment reserve prices with econometrics and artificial intelligence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1179-1197, December.
    6. Harri Aaltonen & Seppo Sierla & Ville Kyrki & Mahdi Pourakbari-Kasmaei & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2022. "Bidding a Battery on Electricity Markets and Minimizing Battery Aging Costs: A Reinforcement Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Rakshith Subramanya & Matti Yli-Ojanperä & Seppo Sierla & Taneli Hölttä & Jori Valtakari & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2021. "A Virtual Power Plant Solution for Aggregating Photovoltaic Systems and Other Distributed Energy Resources for Northern European Primary Frequency Reserves," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, February.
    8. Jiaqi Liu & Hongji Hu & Samson S. Yu & Hieu Trinh, 2023. "Virtual Power Plant with Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Storage Systems for Sustainable Power Grid-Formation, Control Techniques and Demand Response," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-28, April.
    9. Fraunholz, Christoph & Kraft, Emil & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Advanced price forecasting in agent-based electricity market simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    2. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    7. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafał Weron, 2021. "Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
    11. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    12. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Narajewski, Michał & Weron, Rafał & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    16. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Katarzyna Hubicka & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    18. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    19. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    20. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1906-:d:159229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.