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Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Lozinskaia, Agata

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation)

  • Redkina, Anastasiia

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation)

  • Shenkman, Evgeniia

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In the paper, a medium-term forecast of electricity consumption is built on monthly data from January 2008 to September 2019 for all regions of the Urals integrated power system. A key feature of the work is the use of linear combinations of forecasts that are produced with time series basic models with deterministic and stochastic seasonality. The proposed methodology demonstrates high and robust forecast accuracy in comparison with the basic models and can be applied by various players in the electricity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0404
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wholesale electricity market; electricity consumption forecasting; deterministic seasonality; stochastic seasonality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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