IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v88y2024ics0957178724000511.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Merit-order of dispatchable and variable renewable energy sources in Turkey's day-ahead electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Gökgöz, Fazıl
  • Yücel, Öykü

Abstract

This study employs linear and non-linear quantile regression models to assess the merit-order effect (MOE) of integrating renewable energy sources (RESs) into the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The analysis spans nine different quantiles from January 2019 to December 2022. Our results show that both dispatchable and variable renewable energy sources (VREs) are essential for reducing market clearing prices (MCPs) in the Turkish day-ahead market. However, they have different impacts on quantiles of MCPs and price variability. VREs enhances the price variability across all hours in linear and non-linear models, while dispatchable renewable energy reduces price variability except at night.

Suggested Citation

  • Gökgöz, Fazıl & Yücel, Öykü, 2024. "Merit-order of dispatchable and variable renewable energy sources in Turkey's day-ahead electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0957178724000511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178724000511
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2024.101758?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
    2. Stelios Loumakis & Evgenia Giannini & Zacharias Maroulis, 2019. "Renewable Energy Sources Penetration in Greece: Characteristics and Seasonal Variation of the Electricity Demand Share Covering," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Gianfreda, Angelica & Maranzano, Paolo & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2023. "Testing for integration and cointegration when time series are observed with noise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Eric Guerci & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "High wind Penetration in an Agent-Based Model of the Electricity Market. The Case of Italy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 415-447.
    5. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    6. Benhmad, François & Percebois, Jacques, 2018. "Photovoltaic and wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices: The case of Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 317-326.
    7. Hagfors, Lars Ivar & Bunn, Derek & Kristoffersen, Eline & Staver, Tiril Toftdahl & Westgaard, Sjur, 2016. "Modeling the UK electricity price distributions using quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 231-243.
    8. Angelica Gianfreda & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2016. "The Impact of RES in the Italian Day-Ahead and Balancing Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2_suppl), pages 161-184, June.
    9. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Acar, Berkan & Selcuk, Orhun & Dastan, Seyit Ali, 2019. "The merit order effect of wind and river type hydroelectricity generation on Turkish electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1298-1319.
    11. Koenker, Roger & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1982. "Tests of Linear Hypotheses and l[subscript]1 Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1577-1583, November.
    12. Michael Pahle, Wolf-Peter Schill, Christian Gambardella, and Oliver Tietjen, 2016. "Renewable Energy Support, Negative Prices, and Real-time Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    13. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    14. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    15. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Zhu, Qingyuan & Li, Xingchen & Li, Feng & Wu, Jie & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Energy and environmental efficiency of China's transportation sectors under the constraints of energy consumption and environmental pollutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    18. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    19. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    20. Keles, Dogan & Dehler-Holland, Joris & Densing, Martin & Panos, Evangelos & Hack, Felix, 2020. "Cross-border effects in interconnected electricity markets - an analysis of the Swiss electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    21. Michael Pahle, Wolf-Peter Schill, Christian Gambardella, and Oliver Tietjen, 2016. "Renewable Energy Support, Negative Prices, and Real-time Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    22. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
    23. Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019. "Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
    24. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "An analysis of the decline of electricity spot prices in Europe: Who is to blame?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 323-336.
    25. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    26. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa & Mario Liebensteiner, 2018. "Integration of European Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 41-66, December.
    27. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2021. "On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    28. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    29. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2011. "The Long-term Impact of Wind Power on Electricity Prices and Generating Capacity," Discussion Papers 11-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    30. Huisman, Ronald & Stet, Cristian, 2022. "The dependence of quantile power prices on supply from renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    31. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
    32. Linh Phuong Catherine Do & Štefan Lyócsa & Peter Molnár, 2019. "Impact of wind and solar production on electricity prices: Quantile regression approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1752-1768, October.
    33. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    34. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
    35. Teng Ma & Yimeng Du & Tao Xu & Wang Chen, 2023. "Cross-regional effects of renewable power generation on the electricity market: an empirical study on Japan's electricity spot market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2070-2097, April.
    36. Craig, Michael T. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Williams, Nathaniel J. & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "A retrospective analysis of the market price response to distributed photovoltaic generation in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 394-403.
    37. Derek Bunn & Arne Andresen & Dipeng Chen & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Price Risks with Quantile Factor Models," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 101-122, January.
    38. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
    39. Fazıl Gökgöz & Engin Yalçın & Noor Ayoob Salahaldeen, 2023. "Investigating the financial efficiencies and productivities of the banking sector," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(5), pages 1036-1057, November.
    40. Frondel, Manuel, 2011. "Modelling energy and non-energy substitution: A brief survey of elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4601-4604, August.
    41. Canan Karatekin & Hakan elik, 2020. "The Effects of Renewable Energy Sources on the Structure of the Turkish Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 64-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Ajanaku, Bolarinwa A. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "“Comparing merit order effects of wind penetration across wholesale electricity markets”," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Huisman, Ronald & Stet, Cristian, 2022. "The dependence of quantile power prices on supply from renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Tselika, Kyriaki, 2022. "The impact of variable renewables on the distribution of hourly electricity prices and their variability: A panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    8. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Rinne, Sonja, 2024. "Estimating the merit-order effect using coarsened exact matching: Reconciling theory with the empirical results to improve policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2022. "The role of electricity flows and renewable electricity production in the behaviour of electricity prices in Spain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 885-900.
    13. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Nursimulu, Anjali, 2019. "Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-87.
    14. Monjazeb, Mohammad Reza & Amiri, Hossein & Movahedi, Akram, 2024. "Wholesale electricity price forecasting by Quantile Regression and Kalman Filter method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    15. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2021. "The Merit-Order Effect on the Swedish bidding zone with the highest electricity flow in the Elspot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Maniatis, Georgios I. & Milonas, Nikolaos T., 2022. "The impact of wind and solar power generation on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    18. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2021. "On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    19. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    20. Meus, Jelle & De Vits, Sarah & S'heeren, Nele & Delarue, Erik & Proost, Stef, 2021. "Renewable electricity support in perfect markets: Economic incentives under diverse subsidy instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0957178724000511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.