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Energy Market Prices in Times of COVID-19: The Case of Electricity and Natural Gas in Spain

Author

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  • Luis M. Abadie

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change—BC3, Edificio Sede No. 1, 1st Floor, Basque Country University Science Park, 48940 Leioa, Spain)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a strong impact on the economies of all countries, negatively affecting almost all sectors. This paper compares Spanish electricity and natural gas prices in the first half-year of 2020 with the prices expected for that period at the end of 2019. The half-year of 2020 selected coincides with the period of greatest impact of COVID-19 on Spanish society. Expected prices and their future probability distributions are calculated using a stochastic model with deterministic and stochastic parts; the stochastic part includes mean-reverting and jumps behaviour. The model is calibrated with 2016–2019 daily spot prices for electricity and with day-ahead prices for natural gas. The results show large monthly differences between the prices expected at the end of the year 2019 and the actual prices for the half-year; in May 2020, wholesale electricity prices are found to be EUR 31.60/MWh lower than expected, i.e., 60% lower. In the case of natural gas, the prices in the same month are EUR 8.96/MWh lower than expected, i.e., 62% lower. The spark spread (SS) is positive but lower than expected and also lower than in the same months of the previous year.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis M. Abadie, 2021. "Energy Market Prices in Times of COVID-19: The Case of Electricity and Natural Gas in Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:6:p:1632-:d:517157
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    3. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
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    5. Tomasz Wołowiec & Iuliia Myroshnychenko & Ihor Vakulenko & Sylwester Bogacki & Anna Maria Wiśniewska & Svitlana Kolosok & Vitaliy Yunger, 2022. "International Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Economics and Environmental Pollution: A Scoping Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
    6. Gontzal Lopez-Ruiz & Joseba Castresana-Larrauri & Jesús María Blanco-Ilzarbe, 2022. "Thermodynamic Analysis of a Regenerative Brayton Cycle Using H 2 , CH 4 and H 2 /CH 4 Blends as Fuel," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2021. "Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Yuriy Bilan & Serhiy Kozmenko & Alex Plastun, 2022. "Price Forecasting in Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-6, December.
    9. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

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