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Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Author

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  • John Boland

    (Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, School of ITMS, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes 5095, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Adrian Grantham

    (Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, School of ITMS, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes 5095, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

We develop a new probabilistic forecasting method for global horizontal irradiation (GHI) by extending our previous bootstrap method to a case of an exponentially decaying heteroscedastic model for tracking dynamics in solar radiance. Our previous method catered for the global systematic variation in variance of solar radiation, whereas our new method also caters for the local variation in variance. We test the performance of our new probabilistic forecasting method against our old probabilistic forecasting method at three locations: Adelaide, Darwin, and Mildura. These locations are chosen to represent three distinct climates. The prediction interval coverage probability, prediction interval normalized averaged width and Winkler score results from our new probabilistic forecasting method are encouraging. Our new method performs better than our previous method at Adelaide and Mildura; regions with a higher proportion of clear-sky days, whereas our previous method performs better than our new method at Darwin; a region with a lower proportion of clear-sky days. These results suggest that the ideal probabilistic forecasting method might be climate specific.

Suggested Citation

  • John Boland & Adrian Grantham, 2018. "Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation," J, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjopen:v:1:y:2018:i:1:p:16-191:d:187882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
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    4. P. Pinson, 2012. "Very-short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit–normal distributions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(4), pages 555-576, August.
    5. Trapero, Juan R., 2016. "Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 266-274.
    6. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    7. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    8. Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Hugo T. C. Pedro, 2017. "Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Starke, Allan R. & Lemos, Leonardo F.L. & Boland, John & Cardemil, José M. & Colle, Sergio, 2018. "Resolution of the cloud enhancement problem for one-minute diffuse radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 472-484.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Boland, 2024. "Constructing Interval Forecasts for Solar and Wind Energy Using Quantile Regression, ARCH and Exponential Smoothing Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-17, July.

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