IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v187y2019ics0360544219314768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity price prediction based on hybrid model of adam optimized LSTM neural network and wavelet transform

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Zihan
  • Zhang, Yang
  • Chen, Wenbo

Abstract

To a large extent, electricity price prediction is a daunting task because it depends on factors, such as weather, fuel, load and bidding strategies etc. Those features generate a lot of fluctuations to electricity price. As a type of RNN, LSTM has a good performance on processing time series data as well as some nonlinear and complex problems. To explore more accurate electricity price forecasting approach, in this paper, a new hybrid model based on wavelet transform and Adam optimized LSTM neural network, denoted as WT-Adam-LSTM, is proposed. After the wavelet transform, nonlinear sequence of electricity price can be decomposed and processed data will have a more stable variance, and the combination of Adam, one of efficient stochastic gradient-based optimizers, and LSTM can capture appropriate behaviors precisely for electricity price. This study presented four cases to verify the performance of the hybrid model, and the dataset from New South Wales of Australia and French were adopted to illustrate the excellence of the hybrid model. The results show that the proposed model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Zihan & Zhang, Yang & Chen, Wenbo, 2019. "Electricity price prediction based on hybrid model of adam optimized LSTM neural network and wavelet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:187:y:2019:i:c:s0360544219314768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.07.134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219314768
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.07.134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
    2. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    3. Singh, Nitin & Mohanty, Soumya Ranjan & Dev Shukla, Rishabh, 2017. "Short term electricity price forecast based on environmentally adapted generalized neuron," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 127-139.
    4. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
    6. Schlüter, Stephan & Deuschle, Carola, 2010. "Using wavelets for time series forecasting: Does it pay off?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2010, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Wang, Deyun & Luo, Hongyuan & Grunder, Olivier & Lin, Yanbing & Guo, Haixiang, 2017. "Multi-step ahead electricity price forecasting using a hybrid model based on two-layer decomposition technique and BP neural network optimized by firefly algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 390-407.
    8. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    9. Yang, Zhang & Ce, Li & Lian, Li, 2017. "Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 291-305.
    10. Tan, Zhongfu & Zhang, Jinliang & Wang, Jianhui & Xu, Jun, 2010. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3606-3610, November.
    11. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasting with a BED (Bivariate EMD Denoising) methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 601-609.
    12. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    5. Qiao, Weibiao & Yang, Zhe, 2020. "Forecast the electricity price of U.S. using a wavelet transform-based hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
    7. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    8. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    10. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    11. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    12. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "GHTnet: Tri-Branch deep learning network for real-time electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    13. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    14. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    15. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    16. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    17. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    18. Fraunholz, Christoph & Kraft, Emil & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Advanced price forecasting in agent-based electricity market simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    19. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    20. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:187:y:2019:i:c:s0360544219314768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.