IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i17p4436-d1471177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model

Author

Listed:
  • Karol Pilot

    (Independent Researcher, 40-287 Katowice, Poland)

  • Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot

    (Faculty of Informatics and Communication, University of Economics in Katowice, 40-287 Katowice, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Kania

    (Faculty of Informatics and Communication, University of Economics in Katowice, 40-287 Katowice, Poland)

Abstract

Forecasting the electricity market, even in the short term, is a difficult task, due to the nature of this commodity, the lack of storage capacity, and the multiplicity and volatility of factors that influence its price. The sensitivity of the market results in the appearance of anomalies in the market, during which forecasting models often break down. The aim of this paper is to present the possibility of using hybrid machine learning models to forecast the price of electricity, especially when such events occur. It includes the automatic detection of anomalies using three different switch types and two independent forecasting models, one for use during periods of stable markets and the other during periods of anomalies. The results of empirical tests conducted on data from the Polish energy market showed that the proposed solution improves the overall quality of prediction compared to using each model separately and significantly improves the quality of prediction during anomaly periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Karol Pilot & Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Krzysztof Kania, 2024. "Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4436-:d:1471177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/17/4436/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/17/4436/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
    2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
    3. Zhang, Jinliang & Tan, Zhongfu & Wei, Yiming, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    4. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    5. Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Peter Tankov, 2008. "Multi-Factor Jump-Diffusion Models Of Electricity Prices," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 503-528.
    6. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    7. Kim, Sungil & Kim, Heeyoung, 2016. "A new metric of absolute percentage error for intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 669-679.
    8. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    9. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    10. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    11. Douglas M. Hawkins, 1980. "Critical Values for Identifying Outliers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(1), pages 95-96, March.
    12. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    13. repec:qut:auncer:2012_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Borovkova, Svetlana & Schmeck, Maren Diane, 2017. "Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 51-65.
    15. Gulay, Emrah & Duru, Okan, 2020. "Hybrid modeling in the predictive analytics of energy systems and prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    16. Kanamura, Takashi & Ohashi, Kazuhiko, 2007. "A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: Measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1010-1032, September.
    17. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    18. Kostrzewski, Maciej & Kostrzewska, Jadwiga, 2019. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with Bayesian stochastic volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 610-620.
    19. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    20. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook0601, December.
    21. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    3. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    4. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    5. He Jiang & Yao Dong & Jianzhou Wang, 2024. "Electricity price forecasting using quantile regression averaging with nonconvex regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1859-1879, September.
    6. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
    9. Lehna, Malte & Scheller, Fabian & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Huang, Siwan & Shi, Jianheng & Wang, Baoyue & An, Na & Li, Li & Hou, Xuebing & Wang, Chunsen & Zhang, Xiandong & Wang, Kai & Li, Huilin & Zhang, Sui & Zhong, Ming, 2024. "A hybrid framework for day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    11. Shadi Tehrani & Jesús Juan & Eduardo Caro, 2022. "Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Forecasting in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-23, August.
    12. Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Hain, Martin & Kargus, Tobias & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "An electricity price modeling framework for renewable-dominant markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 66, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    14. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    15. Hilger, Hannes & Witthaut, Dirk & Dahmen, Manuel & Rydin Gorjão, Leonardo & Trebbien, Julius & Cramer, Eike, 2024. "Multivariate scenario generation of day-ahead electricity prices using normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    16. Aliyon, Kasra & Ritvanen, Jouni, 2024. "Deep learning-based electricity price forecasting: Findings on price predictability and European electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    17. Francesco Lisi & Ismail Shah, 2024. "Joint Component Estimation for Electricity Price Forecasting Using Functional Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-18, July.
    18. Yang, Yifan & Guo, Ju’e & Li, Yi & Zhou, Jiandong, 2024. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices with spatial dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1255-1270.
    19. Lu, Renzhi & Bai, Ruichang & Huang, Yuan & Li, Yuting & Jiang, Junhui & Ding, Yuemin, 2021. "Data-driven real-time price-based demand response for industrial facilities energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    20. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Neural network dynamic differential control for long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4436-:d:1471177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.