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A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States

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Cited by:

  1. Simon Schnürch & Torsten Kleinow & Ralf Korn, 2021. "Clustering-Based Extensions of the Common Age Effect Multi-Population Mortality Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-32, March.
  2. Buckner, Dean & Dowd, Kevin, 2020. "How profitable are Equity Release Mortgages?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
  3. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
  4. Karabey, Uǧur & Kleinow, Torsten & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2014. "Factor risk quantification in annuity models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-45.
  5. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin, 2020. "The heat wave model for constructing two-dimensional mortality improvement scales with measures of uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-26.
  6. Biffis, Enrico & Blake, David, 2010. "Securitizing and tranching longevity exposures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 186-197, February.
  7. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jim Oeppen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2019. "Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths," CREATES Research Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  8. Kevin Dowd & Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Guy Coughlan & Marwa Khalaf-Allah, 2011. "A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 334-356.
  9. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
  10. Zoe Gibbs & Chris Groendyke & Brian Hartman & Robert Richardson, 2020. "Modeling County-Level Spatio-Temporal Mortality Rates Using Dynamic Linear Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15, November.
  11. Colin O’hare & Youwei Li, 2017. "Models of mortality rates – analysing the residuals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(52), pages 5309-5323, November.
  12. Igawa Takayuki, 2013. "Analysis of the Residual Structure of the Lee–Carter Model: The Case of Japanese Mortality," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 53-80, July.
  13. FLICI, Farid, 2015. "Provisionnement des rentes viagères en Algérie entre approche statique et approche prospective [Life Annuities Reserving in Algeria between static approach and prospective approach]," MPRA Paper 91917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. David Blake, 2018. "Longevity: a new asset class," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 278-300, September.
  15. Jaap Spreeuw & Iqbal Owadally & Muhammad Kashif, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, April.
  16. Salvatore Scognamiglio & Mario Marino, 2023. "Backtesting stochastic mortality models by prediction interval-based metrics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3825-3847, August.
  17. Andrew J.G. Cairns & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Carsten P.T. Rosenskjold & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2016. "Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index," CREATES Research Papers 2016-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  18. Jackie Li & Jia Liu & Adam Butt, 2024. "A systematic vector autoregressive framework for modeling and forecasting mortality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2279-2297, September.
  19. Han Lin Shang & Steven Haberman, 2020. "Retiree Mortality Forecasting: A Partial Age-Range or a Full Age-Range Model?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11, July.
  20. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  21. Anastasia Novokreshchenova, 2016. "Predicting Human Mortality: Quantitative Evaluation of Four Stochastic Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, December.
  22. Redondo Lourés, Cristian & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Cause of death specific cohort effects in U.S. mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 190-199.
  23. Li, J.S.H. & Ng, A.C.Y. & Chan, W.S., 2013. "Stochastic life table forecasting: A time-simultaneous fan chart application," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 98-107.
  24. David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
  25. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2012. "Parametric mortality improvement rate modelling and projecting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 309-333.
  26. Zhang, Xuanming & Huang, Fei & Hui, Francis K.C. & Haberman, Steven, 2023. "Cause-of-death mortality forecasting using adaptive penalized tensor decompositions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 193-213.
  27. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-052 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Luca De Mori & Pietro Millossovich & Rui Zhu & Steven Haberman, 2024. "Two-Population Mortality Forecasting: An Approach Based on Model Averaging," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, March.
  29. D’Amato, Valeria & Di Lorenzo, Emilia & Haberman, Steven & Sagoo, Pretty & Sibillo, Marilena, 2018. "De-risking strategy: Longevity spread buy-in," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 124-136.
  30. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
  31. Zoë Fannon & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Age-period cohort models," Economics Papers 2018-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  32. Alois Pichler & Dana Uhlig, 2021. "Mortality in Germany during the Covid-19 pandemic," Papers 2107.12899, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
  33. Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2011. "Modelling and management of longevity risk: Approximations to survivor functions and dynamic hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 438-453.
  34. Guibert, Quentin & Lopez, Olivier & Piette, Pierrick, 2019. "Forecasting mortality rate improvements with a high-dimensional VAR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 255-272.
  35. Paul Doukhan & Joseph Rynkiewicz & Yahia Salhi, 2021. "Optimal Neighborhood Selection for AR-ARCH Random Fields with Application to Mortality," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, December.
  36. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2023. "Hedging longevity risk under non-Gaussian state-space stochastic mortality models: A mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 96-121.
  37. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
  38. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2023. "Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases: Amending the retirement age," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 161-184.
  39. Emilio Bisetti & Carlo Favero, 2014. "Measuring the Impact of Longevity Risk on Pension Systems: The Case of Italy," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 87-103.
  40. FLICI, Farid, 2016. "The future of longevity and life annuities pricing in Algeria: comparison of mortality models," SocArXiv 2tdgm, Center for Open Science.
  41. Han Li & Colin O’Hare, 2019. "Mortality Forecasting: How Far Back Should We Look in Time?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
  42. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Recent declines in life expectancy: Implication on longevity risk hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 376-394.
  43. Fabrizio Culotta, 2021. "Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and Pension Fairness: An Italian North-South Divide," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, March.
  44. Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Yang, Sharon S. & Wang, Chou-Wen, 2013. "Pricing and securitization of multi-country longevity risk with mortality dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 157-169.
  46. Enrico Biffis & David Blake & Lorenzo Pitotti & Ariel Sun, 2016. "The Cost of Counterparty Risk and Collateralization in Longevity Swaps," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 387-419, June.
  47. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
  48. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
  49. Goecke, Oskar, 2015. "Asset Liability-Management in einem selbstfinanzierenden Pensionsfonds," Forschung am ivwKöln 9/2015, Technische Hochschule Köln – University of Applied Sciences, Institute for Insurance Studies.
  50. Zhou, Hongjuan & Zhou, Kenneth Q. & Li, Xianping, 2022. "Stochastic mortality dynamics driven by mixed fractional Brownian motion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 218-238.
  51. Ayuso, Mercedes & Bravo, Jorge M. & Holzmann, Robert, 2021. "Getting life expectancy estimates right for pension policy: period versus cohort approach," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 212-231, April.
  52. Dowd, Kevin & Buckner, Dean & Blake, David & Fry, John, 2019. "The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  53. Li, Hong & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2015. "The choice of sample size for mortality forecasting: A Bayesian learning approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 153-168.
  54. Jonas Hirz & Uwe Schmock & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended CreditRisk+," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-29, March.
  55. Leung, Melvern & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2021. "Bayesian Value-at-Risk backtesting: The case of annuity pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 786-801.
  56. Li, Hong & Lu, Yang, 2017. "Coherent Forecasting Of Mortality Rates: A Sparse Vector-Autoregression Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 563-600, May.
  57. McCarthy, David G. & Wang, Po-Lin, 2021. "Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: An application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 459-485.
  58. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2018. "A strategy for hedging risks associated with period and cohort effects using q-forwards," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-285.
  59. Yue, Jack C. & Wang, Hsin-Chung & Leong, Yin-Yee & Su, Wei-Ping, 2018. "Using Taiwan National Health Insurance Database to model cancer incidence and mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 316-324.
  60. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin, 2017. "Semi-parametric extensions of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model: A one-dimensional kernel smoothing approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-176.
  61. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
  62. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Cohort effects in mortality modelling: a Bayesian state-space approach," Papers 1703.08282, arXiv.org.
  63. Bohm, Thomas & Waldvogel, Felix, 2012. "Etablierung eines außerbörslichen Kapitalmarktes für das Langlebigkeitsrisiko," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-02, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
  64. Wan, Cheng & Bertschi, Ljudmila, 2015. "Swiss coherent mortality model as a basis for developing longevity de-risking solutions for Swiss pension funds: A practical approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-75.
  65. Ornelas, Arelly & Guillén, Montserrat, 2013. "A Comparison between General Population Mortality and Life Tables for Insurance in Mexico under Gender Proportion Inequality || Una comparación entre la mortalidad de la población general y las tablas," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 47-67, December.
  66. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
  67. Frank van Berkum & Katrien Antonio & Michel Vellekoop, 2021. "Quantifying longevity gaps using micro‐level lifetime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 548-570, April.
  68. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin & Zhang, Xibin, 2015. "A semiparametric panel approach to mortality modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 264-270.
  69. Tan, Chong It & Li, Jackie & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2014. "Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 285-299.
  70. Hunt, Andrew & Blake, David, 2018. "Identifiability, cointegration and the gravity model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 360-368.
  71. Yang, Bowen & Li, Jackie & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2015. "Using bootstrapping to incorporate model error for risk-neutral pricing of longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-27.
  72. Dean Buckner & Kevin Dowd & Hardy Hulley, 2024. "How suitable are equity release mortgages as investments for pension funds?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 259-269, April.
  73. Leung, Melvern & Fung, Man Chung & O’Hare, Colin, 2018. "A comparative study of pricing approaches for longevity instruments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 95-116.
  74. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2019. "Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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  82. Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang & Cheng, Echo Sihan, 2021. "Incorporating statistical clustering methods into mortality models to improve forecasting performances," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 42-62.
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