IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v88y2021i2p381-412.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program

Author

Listed:
  • David McCarthy

Abstract

Using a Bayesian cohort‐based mortality model, we identify strong evidence of mortality postponement at older ages in the United States. We use the results of the model to project mortality rates 75 years ahead, and show that this will likely raise the U. S. old‐age dependency ratio to ~55% by 2090 (~30% larger than the Social Security Administration [SSA] intermediate estimates). We estimate how this will affect the finances of the Old‐Age and Survivors Insurance program as modeled by the SSA. In our median estimate, using the SSA's intermediate‐cost assumptions, mortality postponement will raise the open‐system unfunded liability over a 75‐year period by around $6.8trn over SSA estimates, worsening the actuarial balance of the program by an extra 1.30% of taxable payroll. Mortality postponement will also have significant implications for other government programs, notably Medicare, and for private‐sector financial intermediaries, such as pension funds and insurance companies, as well as private households.

Suggested Citation

  • David McCarthy, 2021. "80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-412, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:2:p:381-412
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12321
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jori.12321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom & France Portrait, 2006. "Economic Conditions Early in Life and Individual Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 290-302, March.
    3. Robert J. MacCulloch & Rafael Di Tella & Andrew J. Oswald, 2001. "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 335-341, March.
    4. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    5. Alicia H. Munnell & Anthony Webb & Luke Delorme & Francesca Golub-Sass, 2012. "National Retirement Risk Index: How Much Longer Do We Need to Work?," Issues in Brief ib2012-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jun 2012.
    6. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2017. "Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 397-476.
    7. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    8. Samuel H. Preston & Yana C. Vierboom & Andrew Stokes, 2018. "The role of obesity in exceptionally slow US mortality improvement," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 115(5), pages 957-961, January.
    9. Magali Barbieri, 2018. "Investigating the Difference in Mortality Estimates between the Social Security Administration Trustees' Report and the Human Mortality Database," Working Papers wp394, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Nicoletta Batini & Julia Guerreiro & Giovanni Callegari, 2011. "“An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?”," IMF Working Papers 2011/072, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Alicia H. Munnell & Anthony Webb & Francesca Golub-Sass, 2012. "The National Retirement Risk Index: An Update," Issues in Brief ib2012-20, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2012.
    12. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000. "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650.
    13. repec:wly:hlthec:v:25:y:2016:i::p:6-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 1-30, May.
    15. Dana P. Goldman & Peter R. Orszag, 2014. "The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 230-233, May.
    16. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    17. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2012. "Statistical Security for Social Security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1037-1060, August.
    18. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    19. James W. Vaupel, 2010. "Biodemography of human ageing," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7288), pages 536-542, March.
    20. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Gabriele Doblhammer & Gerard J. van den Berg & L. H. Lumey, 2013. "A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(3), pages 309-322, November.
    22. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    23. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2011. "The future of death in America," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(1), pages 1-38.
    24. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    25. Samuel Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2014. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 27-49, February.
    26. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2016. "Health Effects of Economic Crises," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 6-24, November.
    27. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McCarthy, David G. & Wang, Po-Lin, 2021. "Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: An application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 459-485.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schwandt, Hannes & Wachter, Till von, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 12908, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socio-Economic Decline and Death: The Life-Cycle Impacts of Recessions for Labor Market Entrants," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession," Post-Print hal-01408637, HAL.
    4. Boslett, Andrew & Hill, Elaine, 2022. "Mortality during resource booms and busts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Antonova, Liudmila & Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Mazzonna, Fabrizio, 2017. "Long-term health consequences of recessions during working years," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 134-143.
    6. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Giuliano, Paola, 2009. "Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Clementine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 70-92, November.
    8. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2021. "The Opioid Epidemic Was Not Caused by Economic Distress but by Factors That Could Be More Rapidly Addressed," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 276-291, May.
    9. Neel Rao, 2016. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions In Childhood On Adult Labor Market Outcomes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1425-1444, July.
    10. Lowenstein, Christopher, 2024. "“Deaths of despair” over the business cycle: New estimates from a shift-share instrumental variables approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Adriana Lleras‐Muney, 2022. "Education and income gradients in longevity: The role of policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 5-37, February.
    12. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-01521916 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.
    16. Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2016. "Does Leaving School in an Economic Downturn Persistently Affect Body Weight? Evidence from Panel Data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 122-148, January.
    17. Cristina Borra & Jerònia Pons-Pons & Margarita Vilar-Rodríguez, 2020. "Austerity, healthcare provision, and health outcomes in Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(3), pages 409-423, April.
    18. McCarthy, David G. & Wang, Po-Lin, 2021. "Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: An application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 459-485.
    19. Jetter, Michael & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Roth, Sebastian, 2020. "Becoming sensitive: Males’ risk and time preferences after the 2008 financial crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2021. "The evolution of longevity: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 164-192, February.
    21. Dow, William H. & Godøy, Anna & Lowenstein, Christopher & Reich, Michael, 2020. "Can Labor Market Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:2:p:381-412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.