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Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Fanny Janssen

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands
    Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Shady El Gewily

    (Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Anastasios Bardoutsos

    (Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Sergi Trias-Llimós

    (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya (CERCA), Carrer de Ca n’Altayó, Buildings E2, Autonomous University of Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain
    Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK)

Abstract

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanny Janssen & Shady El Gewily & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Sergi Trias-Llimós, 2020. "Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:23:p:9024-:d:455817
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
    2. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Shkolnikov, Vladimir M. & Cornia, Giovanni A. & Leon, David A. & Mesle, France, 1998. "Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: Evidence and interpretations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1995-2011, November.
    4. Charlotte Probst & Jakob Manthey & Maria Neufeld & Jürgen Rehm & João Breda & Ivo Rakovac & Carina Ferreira-Borges, 2020. "Meeting the Global NCD Target of at Least 10% Relative Reduction in the Harmful Use of Alcohol: Is the WHO European Region on Track?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Weidner, G. & Cain, V.S., 2003. "The Gender Gap in Heart Disease: Lessons from Eastern Europe," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(5), pages 768-770.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleh Lyubinets & Marta Kachmarska & Katarzyna Maria Sygit & Elżbieta Cipora & Jaroslaw Grshybowskyj, 2021. "Mortality and Alcohol as Its Cause—Comparative Characteristics of the Two Neighboring Countries: Ukraine and Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-15, October.

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