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Application of Machine Learning to Mortality Modeling and Forecasting

Author

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  • Susanna Levantesi

    (Department of Statistics, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale Regina Elena, 295/G, 00161 Rome, Italy)

  • Virginia Pizzorusso

    (Ernst and Young Advisory, Via Meravigli, 12, 20123 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

Estimation of future mortality rates still plays a central role among life insurers in pricing their products and managing longevity risk. In the literature on mortality modeling, a wide number of stochastic models have been proposed, most of them forecasting future mortality rates by extrapolating one or more latent factors. The abundance of proposed models shows that forecasting future mortality from historical trends is non-trivial. Following the idea proposed in Deprez et al. (2017), we use machine learning algorithms, able to catch patterns that are not commonly identifiable, to calibrate a parameter (the machine learning estimator), improving the goodness of fit of standard stochastic mortality models. The machine learning estimator is then forecasted according to the Lee-Carter framework, allowing one to obtain a higher forecasting quality of the standard stochastic models. Out-of sample forecasts are provided to verify the model accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Susanna Levantesi & Virginia Pizzorusso, 2019. "Application of Machine Learning to Mortality Modeling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:26-:d:209175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    2. Plat, Richard, 2009. "On stochastic mortality modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 393-404, December.
    3. Hainaut, Donatien, 2018. "A Neural-Network Analyzer for Mortality Forecast," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2018027, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    4. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    5. Philippe Deprez & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Mario V. Wuthrich, 2017. "Machine Learning Techniques for Mortality Modeling," Papers 1705.03396, arXiv.org.
    6. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    7. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    8. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2011. "A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 35-55, January.
    9. Hainaut, Donatien, 2018. "A Neural-Network Analyzer For Mortality Forecast," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 481-508, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. I. A. Lakman & R. A. Askarov & V. B. Prudnikov & Z. F. Askarova & V. M. Timiryanova, 2021. "Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 536-548, September.
    2. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
    3. Zhenmin Cheng & Wanwan Si & Zhiwei Xu & Kaibiao Xiang, 2022. "Prediction of China’s Population Mortality under Limited Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Suryo Adi Rakhmawan & M. Hafidz Omar & Muhammad Riaz & Nasir Abbas, 2023. "Hotelling T 2 Control Chart for Detecting Changes in Mortality Models Based on Machine-Learning Decision Tree," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Boumezoued, Alexandre & Elfassihi, Amal, 2021. "Mortality data correction in the absence of monthly fertility records," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 486-508.
    6. Hung-Tsung Hsiao & Chou-Wen Wang & I.-Chien Liu & Ko-Lun Kung, 2024. "Mortality improvement neural-network models with autoregressive effects," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 363-383, April.
    7. Norkhairunnisa Redzwan & Rozita Ramli, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Salvatore Tedesco & Martina Andrulli & Markus Åkerlund Larsson & Daniel Kelly & Antti Alamäki & Suzanne Timmons & John Barton & Joan Condell & Brendan O’Flynn & Anna Nordström, 2021. "Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Mortality Prediction in a Prospective Cohort of Older Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Jaap Spreeuw & Iqbal Owadally & Muhammad Kashif, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    11. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    12. Yang Qiao & Chou-Wen Wang & Wenjun Zhu, 2024. "Machine learning in long-term mortality forecasting," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 340-362, April.
    13. Jose Garrido & Yuxiang Shang & Ran Xu, 2024. "LSTM-Based Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Developing Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Joab Odhiambo & Patrick Weke & Philip Ngare, 2021. "A Deep Learning Integrated Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Sytematic Mortality Risk Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-12, June.
    15. Alexandre Boumezoued & Amal Elfassihi, 2020. "Mortality data correction in the absence of monthly fertility records," Working Papers hal-02634631, HAL.
    16. David Atance & Ana Debón & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "A Comparison of Forecasting Mortality Models Using Resampling Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-21, September.

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