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Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms

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  1. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
  2. Umut Ugurlu & Oktay Tas & Aycan Kaya & Ilkay Oksuz, 2018. "The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts’ Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
  3. Mendes, Carla & Staffell, Iain & Green, Richard, 2024. "EuroMod: Modelling European power markets with improved price granularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  4. Lu, Xin & Qiu, Jing & Lei, Gang & Zhu, Jianguo, 2022. "Scenarios modelling for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Case studies in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
  5. Galarneau-Vincent, Rémi & Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric, 2023. "Foreseeing the worst: Forecasting electricity DART spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  6. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
  7. Thilker, Christian Ankerstjerne & Jørgensen, John Bagterp & Madsen, Henrik, 2022. "Linear quadratic Gaussian control with advanced continuous-time disturbance models for building thermal regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
  8. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
  9. Li, Zheng & Zhou, Bo & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Forecasting automobile gasoline demand in Australia using machine learning-based regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
  10. Kaijian He & Don Wu & Yingchao Zou, 2022. "Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Multiscale Mode Learning Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-12, August.
  11. Ciaran O'Connor & Joseph Collins & Steven Prestwich & Andrea Visentin, 2024. "Electricity Price Forecasting in the Irish Balancing Market," Papers 2402.06714, arXiv.org.
  12. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  13. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  14. Tang, Zhenhao & Zhao, Gengnan & Ouyang, Tinghui, 2021. "Two-phase deep learning model for short-term wind direction forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1005-1016.
  15. Mohamed Massaoudi & Shady S. Refaat & Haitham Abu-Rub & Ines Chihi & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2020. "PLS-CNN-BiLSTM: An End-to-End Algorithm-Based Savitzky–Golay Smoothing and Evolution Strategy for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-29, October.
  16. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Katarzyna Poczeta & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-32, May.
  17. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
  18. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Mazairac, Wiet & De Schutter, Bart, 2019. "A 1-dimensional continuous and smooth model for thermally stratified storage tanks including mixing and buoyancy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 640-655.
  19. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  20. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.
  21. Bo Hu & Jian Xu & Zuoxia Xing & Pengfei Zhang & Jia Cui & Jinglu Liu, 2022. "Short-Term Combined Forecasting Method of Park Load Based on CEEMD-MLR-LSSVR-SBO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
  22. Thilker, Christian Ankerstjerne & Madsen, Henrik & Jørgensen, John Bagterp, 2021. "Advanced forecasting and disturbance modelling for model predictive control of smart energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
  23. Wagner, Andreas & Ramentol, Enislay & Schirra, Florian & Michaeli, Hendrik, 2022. "Short- and long-term forecasting of electricity prices using embedding of calendar information in neural networks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  24. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
  25. Laura Böhm & Sebastian Kolb & Thomas Plankenbühler & Jonas Miederer & Simon Markthaler & Jürgen Karl, 2023. "Short-Term Natural Gas and Carbon Price Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-25, September.
  26. Lu, Renzhi & Bai, Ruichang & Huang, Yuan & Li, Yuting & Jiang, Junhui & Ding, Yuemin, 2021. "Data-driven real-time price-based demand response for industrial facilities energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
  27. F. Cordoni, 2020. "A comparison of modern deep neural network architectures for energy spot price forecasting," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 189-210, December.
  28. Karol Pilot & Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Krzysztof Kania, 2024. "Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, September.
  29. Demir, Sumeyra & Mincev, Krystof & Kok, Koen & Paterakis, Nikolaos G., 2021. "Data augmentation for time series regression: Applying transformations, autoencoders and adversarial networks to electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
  30. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Neural network dynamic differential control for long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
  31. de Ridder, Fjo & van Roy, Jeroen & de Schutter, Bert & Mazairac, Wiet, 2021. "An exploration of shared heat storage systems in the greenhouse horticulture industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  32. Xu, Yuzhen & Huang, Xin & Zheng, Xidong & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "VMD-ATT-LSTM electricity price prediction based on grey wolf optimization algorithm in electricity markets considering renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  33. Michał Pikus & Jarosław Wąs, 2024. "Predictive Modeling of Renewable Energy Purchase Prices Using Deep Learning Based on Polish Power Grid Data for Small Hybrid PV Microinstallations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-12, January.
  34. Vladimir Franki & Darin Majnarić & Alfredo Višković, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Companies in the Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, January.
  35. He Jiang & Yao Dong & Jianzhou Wang, 2024. "Electricity price forecasting using quantile regression averaging with nonconvex regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1859-1879, September.
  36. Aqdas Naz & Muhammad Umar Javed & Nadeem Javaid & Tanzila Saba & Musaed Alhussein & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Short-Term Electric Load and Price Forecasting Using Enhanced Extreme Learning Machine Optimization in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-30, March.
  37. Heydari, Azim & Majidi Nezhad, Meysam & Pirshayan, Elmira & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & De Santoli, Livio, 2020. "Short-term electricity price and load forecasting in isolated power grids based on composite neural network and gravitational search optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  38. Chethana Dharmawardane & Ville Sillanpää & Jan Holmström, 2021. "High-frequency forecasting for grocery point-of-sales: intervention in practice and theoretical implications for operational design," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 38-60, June.
  39. Agrawal, Rahul Kumar & Muchahary, Frankle & Tripathi, Madan Mohan, 2019. "Ensemble of relevance vector machines and boosted trees for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 540-548.
  40. Wang, Haoxuan & Chen, Huaian & Wang, Ben & Jin, Yi & Li, Guiqiang & Kan, Yan, 2022. "High-efficiency low-power microdefect detection in photovoltaic cells via a field programmable gate array-accelerated dual-flow network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
  41. Alejandro Martínez-Martín & Miguel Ángel Jaramillo-Morán & Diego Carmona-Fernández & Manuel Calderón-Godoy & Juan Félix González González, 2024. "Neural Network for Sky Darkness Level Prediction in Rural Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-13, September.
  42. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, 2020. "Predictive Trading Strategy for Physical Electricity Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
  43. Janke, Leandro & McDonagh, Shane & Weinrich, Sören & Murphy, Jerry & Nilsson, Daniel & Hansson, Per-Anders & Nordberg, Åke, 2020. "Optimizing power-to-H2 participation in the Nord Pool electricity market: Effects of different bidding strategies on plant operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 820-836.
  44. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
  45. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
  46. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  47. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
  48. Graf, Christoph & Quaglia, Federico & Wolak, Frank A., 2021. "(Machine) learning from the COVID-19 lockdown about electricity market performance with a large share of renewables," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  49. Byung-ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2020. "Next-Day Prediction of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using Local Weather Forecasts and LSTM Trained with Non-Local Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
  50. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  51. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  52. Kulshrestha, Anurag & Krishnaswamy, Venkataraghavan & Sharma, Mayank, 2020. "Bayesian BILSTM approach for tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  53. Wang, Yanjia & Xu, Chao & Xie, Da & Gu, Chenghong & Zhao, Pengfei & Gong, Jinxia & Pan, Mingjie & Wang, Xitian, 2023. "A novel scheduling strategy for virtual power plant based on power market dynamic triggers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
  54. Chen, Xi & Yu, Ruyi & Ullah, Sajid & Wu, Dianming & Li, Zhiqiang & Li, Qingli & Qi, Honggang & Liu, Jihui & Liu, Min & Zhang, Yundong, 2022. "A novel loss function of deep learning in wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
  55. Huang, Siwan & Shi, Jianheng & Wang, Baoyue & An, Na & Li, Li & Hou, Xuebing & Wang, Chunsen & Zhang, Xiandong & Wang, Kai & Li, Huilin & Zhang, Sui & Zhong, Ming, 2024. "A hybrid framework for day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
  56. Wei, Shuangyu & Tien, Paige Wenbin & Calautit, John Kaiser & Wu, Yupeng & Boukhanouf, Rabah, 2020. "Vision-based detection and prediction of equipment heat gains in commercial office buildings using a deep learning method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  57. Seok-Jun Bu & Sung-Bae Cho, 2020. "Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
  58. Joseph Nyangon & Ruth Akintunde, 2024. "Principal component analysis of day‐ahead electricity price forecasting in CAISO and its implications for highly integrated renewable energy markets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), January.
  59. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
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  62. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "GHTnet: Tri-Branch deep learning network for real-time electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
  63. Sapountzoglou, Nikolaos & Lago, Jesus & De Schutter, Bart & Raison, Bertrand, 2020. "A generalizable and sensor-independent deep learning method for fault detection and location in low-voltage distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
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