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Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption

Author

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  • Seok-Jun Bu

    (Department of Computer Science, Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea)

  • Sung-Bae Cho

    (Department of Computer Science, Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea)

Abstract

Predicting residential energy consumption is tantamount to forecasting a multivariate time series. A specific window for several sensor signals can induce various features extracted to forecast the energy consumption by using a prediction model. However, it is still a challenging task because of irregular patterns inside including hidden correlations between power attributes. In order to extract the complicated irregular energy patterns and selectively learn the spatiotemporal features to reduce the translational variance between energy attributes, we propose a deep learning model based on the multi-headed attention with the convolutional recurrent neural network. It exploits the attention scores calculated with softmax and dot product operation in the network to model the transient and impulsive nature of energy demand. Experiments with the dataset of University of California, Irvine (UCI) household electric power consumption consisting of a total 2,075,259 time-series show that the proposed model reduces the prediction error by 31.01% compared to the state-of-the-art deep learning model. Especially, the multi-headed attention improves the prediction performance even more by up to 27.91% than the single-attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Seok-Jun Bu & Sung-Bae Cho, 2020. "Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4722-:d:411730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Jinyuan Liu & Shouxi Wang & Nan Wei & Yi Yang & Yihao Lv & Xu Wang & Fanhua Zeng, 2023. "An Enhancement Method Based on Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Short-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Joanna Henzel & Łukasz Wróbel & Marcin Fice & Marek Sikora, 2022. "Energy Consumption Forecasting for the Digital-Twin Model of the Building," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2023. "Dual stream network with attention mechanism for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    6. Jicheng Liu & Yu Yin, 2022. "Power Load Forecasting Considering Climate Factors Based on IPSO-Elman Method in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Tingting Hou & Rengcun Fang & Jinrui Tang & Ganheng Ge & Dongjun Yang & Jianchao Liu & Wei Zhang, 2021. "A Novel Short-Term Residential Electric Load Forecasting Method Based on Adaptive Load Aggregation and Deep Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Nahid Sultana & S. M. Zakir Hossain & Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Dilek Düştegör, 2022. "Bayesian Optimization Algorithm-Based Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, May.
    9. Manuel R. Arahal & Manuel G. Ortega & Manuel G. Satué, 2021. "Chiller Load Forecasting Using Hyper-Gaussian Nets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, June.

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