IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v255y2022ics036054422201461x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neural network dynamic differential control for long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers

Author

Listed:
  • Yin, Linfei
  • Qiu, Yao

Abstract

Price guidance in the flexible energy electricity market is not mature. The imbalance between supply and demand in current electricity markets is mainly caused by uncontrolled flexible energy generation; the electricity supply with load changes in the traditional electricity market is no longer applicable to the current flexible energy electricity market. The work proposes neural network dynamic differential control as the long-term price guidance mechanism for flexible energy service providers. This mechanism alleviates the imbalance between supply and demand in the future electricity market. The neural network dynamic differential control method combines the long-short term memory network and the stochastic dynamic differential method. The proposed method integrates the effects of environmental temperature, holidays, and government regulation on demand. This mechanism enables the demand of flexible energy customers to equal the generation capacity of flexible energy, customers to minimize costs in a long-term electricity market and flexible energy to be completely absorbed. This mechanism directly controls the electrical energy demand and indirectly controls the indoor temperature of the building cooling model through price guidance signals. The experimental results show that the building cooling model can save 4.84% of the cost and 65.03% of the potential cost savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Neural network dynamic differential control for long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:255:y:2022:i:c:s036054422201461x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422201461X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124558?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kempitiya, Thimal & Sierla, Seppo & De Silva, Daswin & Yli-Ojanperä, Matti & Alahakoon, Damminda & Vyatkin, Valeriy, 2020. "An Artificial Intelligence framework for bidding optimization with uncertainty in multiple frequency reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    2. Zhang, Jinliang & Tan, Zhongfu & Wei, Yiming, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    3. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.
    4. Arens, Marlene & Åhman, Max & Vogl, Valentin, 2021. "Which countries are prepared to green their coal-based steel industry with electricity? - Reviewing climate and energy policy as well as the implementation of renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    6. Nie, Ying & Liang, Ni & Wang, Jianzhou, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind-speed bi-forecasting system via artificial intelligence and a double-forecasting scheme," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Lu, Xin & Qiu, Jing & Lei, Gang & Zhu, Jianguo, 2022. "Scenarios modelling for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Case studies in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    8. Wei, Danxiang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong & Li, Zhiwu, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting system based on gated recurrent units and convolutional spiking neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    9. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    11. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    12. Bernath, Christiane & Deac, Gerda & Sensfuß, Frank, 2021. "Impact of sector coupling on the market value of renewable energies – A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    13. Demir, Sumeyra & Mincev, Krystof & Kok, Koen & Paterakis, Nikolaos G., 2021. "Data augmentation for time series regression: Applying transformations, autoencoders and adversarial networks to electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    14. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    15. Yoon, Ah-Yun & Kim, Young-Jin & Zakula, Tea & Moon, Seung-Ill, 2020. "Retail electricity pricing via online-learning of data-driven demand response of HVAC systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    16. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    17. Biehl, J. & Köppel, J. & Grimm, M., 2021. "Creating space for wind energy in a polycentric governance setting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Happle, Gabriel & Fonseca, Jimeno A. & Schlueter, Arno, 2020. "Impacts of diversity in commercial building occupancy profiles on district energy demand and supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    19. Shi, Yu & Song, Xianzhi & Song, Guofeng, 2021. "Productivity prediction of a multilateral-well geothermal system based on a long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron combinational neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    20. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    21. Spodniak, Petr & Ollikka, Kimmo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2021. "The impact of wind power and electricity demand on the relevance of different short-term electricity markets: The Nordic case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    22. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yiming & Tan, Zhongfu, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    23. Chen, Siyuan & Li, Zheng & Li, Weiqi, 2021. "Integrating high share of renewable energy into power system using customer-sited energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    24. Sheha, Moataz & Mohammadi, Kasra & Powell, Kody, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis of the impact of dynamic electricity prices on solar penetration in a smart grid environment with distributed energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    25. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    26. Nikodinoska, Dragana & Käso, Mathias & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    27. Zhou, Xinlei & Lin, Wenye & Kumar, Ritunesh & Cui, Ping & Ma, Zhenjun, 2022. "A data-driven strategy using long short term memory models and reinforcement learning to predict building electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    28. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    29. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers based on stochastic differential methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    30. Nikzad, Mehdi & Samimi, Abouzar, 2021. "Integration of designing price-based demand response models into a stochastic bi-level scheduling of multiple energy carrier microgrids considering energy storage systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    31. Moradi-Sepahvand, Mojtaba & Amraee, Turaj, 2021. "Integrated expansion planning of electric energy generation, transmission, and storage for handling high shares of wind and solar power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    32. Wei, Hu & Hongxuan, Zhang & Yu, Dong & Yiting, Wang & Ling, Dong & Ming, Xiao, 2019. "Short-term optimal operation of hydro-wind-solar hybrid system with improved generative adversarial networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 389-403.
    33. Burleyson, Casey D. & Rahman, Aowabin & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Voisin, Nathalie, 2021. "Multiscale effects masked the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    34. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Gulagi, Ashish & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Full energy sector transition towards 100% renewable energy supply: Integrating power, heat, transport and industry sectors including desalination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    35. Zhou, Feite & Huang, Zhehao & Zhang, Changhong, 2022. "Carbon price forecasting based on CEEMDAN and LSTM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    36. Yang, Zhang & Ce, Li & Lian, Li, 2017. "Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 291-305.
    37. An, Jongbaek & Lee, Minhyun & Yeom, Seungkeun & Hong, Taehoon, 2020. "Determining the Peer-to-Peer electricity trading price and strategy for energy prosumers and consumers within a microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    38. Wu, Y.J. & Liang, X.Y. & Huang, T. & Lin, Z.W. & Li, Z.X. & Hossain, Mohammad Farhad, 2021. "A hierarchical framework for renewable energy sources consumption promotion among microgrids through two-layer electricity prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xu & Li, Mince & Chen, Zonghai, 2023. "Meta rule-based energy management strategy for battery/supercapacitor hybrid electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Hu, Likun & Cao, Yi & Yin, Linfei, 2024. "Fractional-order long-term price guidance mechanism based on bidirectional prediction with attention mechanism for electric vehicle charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    3. Yin, Linfei & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Adaptive multistep model predictive control for tubular grid-connected solid oxide fuel cells," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Xin & Qiu, Jing & Lei, Gang & Zhu, Jianguo, 2022. "Scenarios modelling for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Case studies in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    3. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Nie, Ying & Li, Ping & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang, 2024. "A novel multivariate electrical price bi-forecasting system based on deep learning, a multi-input multi-output structure and an operator combination mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    5. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    6. Demir, Sumeyra & Mincev, Krystof & Kok, Koen & Paterakis, Nikolaos G., 2021. "Data augmentation for time series regression: Applying transformations, autoencoders and adversarial networks to electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    7. Karol Pilot & Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Krzysztof Kania, 2024. "Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Jesus Lopez-Sotelo & David Celeita, 2023. "An Intra-Day Electricity Price Forecasting Based on a Probabilistic Transformer Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.
    9. AL-Alimi, Dalal & AlRassas, Ayman Mutahar & Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Cai, Zhihua & Aseeri, Ahmad O. & Abd Elaziz, Mohamed & Ewees, Ahmed A., 2023. "TLIA: Time-series forecasting model using long short-term memory integrated with artificial neural networks for volatile energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    10. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    12. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    13. Grzegorz Marcjasz, 2020. "Forecasting Electricity Prices Using Deep Neural Networks: A Robust Hyper-Parameter Selection Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    15. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Sharma, Ekta & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho & Barua, Prabal Datta & Rajendra Acharya, U., 2024. "Half-hourly electricity price prediction with a hybrid convolution neural network-random vector functional link deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    16. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    17. Acikgoz, Hakan & Budak, Umit & Korkmaz, Deniz & Yildiz, Ceyhun, 2021. "WSFNet: An efficient wind speed forecasting model using channel attention-based densely connected convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    18. Bilgi Yilmaz & Christian Laudagé & Ralf Korn & Sascha Desmettre, 2024. "Electricity GANs: Generative Adversarial Networks for Electricity Price Scenario Generation," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-27, July.
    19. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Zhenkun & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang, 2021. "Decomposition-selection-ensemble forecasting system for energy futures price forecasting based on multi-objective version of chaos game optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:255:y:2022:i:c:s036054422201461x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.