IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i12p2909-d1414040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting via LSTM and Trading Strategy for the Power Market: A Case Study of the West Denmark DK1 Grid Region

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz Kenan Kılıç

    (Department of Materials and Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstræde 16, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Peter Nielsen

    (Department of Materials and Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstræde 16, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Amila Thibbotuwawa

    (Center for Supply Chain, Operations and Logistics Optimization, University of Moratuwa, Katubedda, Moratuwa 10400, Sri Lanka
    Department of Transport Management and Logistics Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Katubedda, Moratuwa 10400, Sri Lanka)

Abstract

For several stakeholders, including market players, customers, grid operators, policy-makers, investors, and energy efficiency initiatives, having a precise estimate of power pricing is crucial. It is easier for traders to plan, purchase, and sell power transactions with access to accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF). Although energy production and consumption topics are widely discussed in the literature, EPF and renewable energy trading studies receive less attention, especially for intraday market modeling and forecasting. Considering the rapid development of renewable energy sources, the article highlights the significance of integrating the deep learning model, long short-term memory (LSTM), with the proper trading strategy for short-term hourly renewable energy trading by utilizing two different spot markets. Day-ahead and intraday markets are taken into account for the West Denmark grid region (DK1). The time series analysis indicates that LSTM yields superior results compared to other benchmark machine learning algorithms. Using the predictions obtained by LSTM and the recommended trading strategy, promising profit values are achieved for the DK1 wind and solar energy use case, which ensures future motivation to develop a general and flexible model for global data.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Kenan Kılıç & Peter Nielsen & Amila Thibbotuwawa, 2024. "Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting via LSTM and Trading Strategy for the Power Market: A Case Study of the West Denmark DK1 Grid Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:2909-:d:1414040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/12/2909/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/12/2909/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. Li, Wei & Becker, Denis Mike, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    4. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    5. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    6. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
    7. Wei Li & Denis Mike Becker, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Papers 2101.05249, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Karol Pilot & Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Krzysztof Kania, 2024. "Dealing with Anomalies in Day-Ahead Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.
    6. Adela Bâra & Simona-Vasilica Oprea & Bogdan George Tudorică, 2024. "From the East-European Regional Day-Ahead Markets to a Global Electricity Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2525-2557, June.
    7. Ciaran O'Connor & Joseph Collins & Steven Prestwich & Andrea Visentin, 2024. "Electricity Price Forecasting in the Irish Balancing Market," Papers 2402.06714, arXiv.org.
    8. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
    9. van Zyl, Corne & Ye, Xianming & Naidoo, Raj, 2024. "Harnessing eXplainable artificial intelligence for feature selection in time series energy forecasting: A comparative analysis of Grad-CAM and SHAP," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    10. Huang, Siwan & Shi, Jianheng & Wang, Baoyue & An, Na & Li, Li & Hou, Xuebing & Wang, Chunsen & Zhang, Xiandong & Wang, Kai & Li, Huilin & Zhang, Sui & Zhong, Ming, 2024. "A hybrid framework for day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    11. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Dounia El Bourakadi & Hiba Ramadan & Ali Yahyaouy & Jaouad Boumhidi, 2023. "A robust energy management approach in two-steps ahead using deep learning BiLSTM prediction model and type-2 fuzzy decision-making controller," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 645-667, December.
    13. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    14. Hilger, Hannes & Witthaut, Dirk & Dahmen, Manuel & Rydin Gorjão, Leonardo & Trebbien, Julius & Cramer, Eike, 2024. "Multivariate scenario generation of day-ahead electricity prices using normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    15. Souhir Ben Amor & Thomas Mobius & Felix Musgens, 2024. "Bridging an energy system model with an ensemble deep-learning approach for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2411.04880, arXiv.org.
    16. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    17. Ehsani, Behdad & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Charlin, Laurent, 2024. "Price forecasting in the Ontario electricity market via TriConvGRU hybrid model: Univariate vs. multivariate frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    18. Haokun Su & Xiangang Peng & Hanyu Liu & Huan Quan & Kaitong Wu & Zhiwen Chen, 2022. "Multi-Step-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Temporal Graph Convolutional Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
    20. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:2909-:d:1414040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.