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Next-Day Prediction of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using Local Weather Forecasts and LSTM Trained with Non-Local Data

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  • Byung-ki Jeon

    (Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea)

  • Eui-Jong Kim

    (Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea)

Abstract

Solar irradiance prediction is significant for maximizing energy-saving effects in the predictive control of buildings. Several models for solar irradiance prediction have been developed; however, they require the collection of weather data over a long period in the predicted target region or evaluation of various weather data in real time. In this study, a long short-term memory algorithm–based model is proposed using limited input data and data from other regions. The proposed model can predict solar irradiance using next-day weather forecasts by the Korea Meteorological Administration and daily solar irradiance, and it is possible to build a model with one-time learning using national and international data. The model developed in this study showed excellent predictive performance with a coefficient of variation of the root mean square error of 12% per year even if the learning and forecast regions were different, assuming that the weather forecast was correct.

Suggested Citation

  • Byung-ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2020. "Next-Day Prediction of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using Local Weather Forecasts and LSTM Trained with Non-Local Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:20:p:5258-:d:425773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kyoungcheol Oh & Eui-Jong Kim & Chang-Young Park, 2022. "A Physical Model-Based Data-Driven Approach to Overcome Data Scarcity and Predict Building Energy Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Nourani, Vahid & Sharghi, Elnaz & Behfar, Nazanin & Zhang, Yongqiang, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead solar irradiance modeling employing multi-frequency deep learning models and climatic data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
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    5. Konduru Sudharshan & C. Naveen & Pradeep Vishnuram & Damodhara Venkata Siva Krishna Rao Kasagani & Benedetto Nastasi, 2022. "Systematic Review on Impact of Different Irradiance Forecasting Techniques for Solar Energy Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-39, August.
    6. Maciej Slowik & Wieslaw Urban, 2022. "Machine Learning Short-Term Energy Consumption Forecasting for Microgrids in a Manufacturing Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Shen, Hongzheng & Wang, Yue & Jiang, Kongtao & Li, Shilei & Huang, Donghua & Wu, Jiujiang & Wang, Yongqiang & Wang, Yangren & Ma, Xiaoyi, 2022. "Simulation modeling for effective management of irrigation water for winter wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Byung-Ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2021. "LSTM-Based Model Predictive Control for Optimal Temperature Set-Point Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Syed Muhammad Mohsin & Tahir Maqsood & Sajjad Ahmed Madani, 2022. "Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting for Green and Intelligent Migration of Traditional Energy Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Byung-Ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2022. "White-Model Predictive Control for Balancing Energy Savings and Thermal Comfort," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, March.
    11. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Ines Sansa & Zina Boussaada & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2021. "Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-26, October.

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