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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  3. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Working Papers 1947, Banco de España.
  4. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
  5. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
  6. Martha Starr, 2012. "Contributions of Economists to the Housing-Price Bubble," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 143-172.
  7. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
  8. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  9. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
  10. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  11. Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
  12. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
  13. Fernando Borraz & Laura Zacheo, 2018. "Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In)Consistency of Inflation Forecasts," Documentos de trabajo 2018007, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
  15. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
  16. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  17. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2024. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 81-114, February.
  18. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.
  19. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2022. "Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 22-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  20. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
  21. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
  22. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
  23. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
  24. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
  25. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
  26. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  27. Fissler, Tobias & Pesenti, Silvana M., 2023. "Sensitivity measures based on scoring functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1408-1423.
  28. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
  29. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
  30. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
  31. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
  32. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
  33. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
  34. Naohito Abe & Yuko Ueno, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 064, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  35. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
  36. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  37. L. Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2018. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 505-515, July.
  38. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
  39. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
  41. Canen, Nathan & Chakraborty, Anujit, 2023. "Belief elicitation in political protest experiments: When the mode does not teach us about incentives to protest," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 320-331.
  42. William A. Branch, 2014. "Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 1035-1055, August.
  43. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2019. "Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations," Working Papers 0664, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  44. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  45. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
  46. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
  47. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas & Glas, Alexander, 2021. "Extending the Procedure of Engelberg et al. (2009) to Surveys with Varying Interval-Widths," Working Papers 0707, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  48. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
  49. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  50. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
  51. Patrick Schmidt & Matthias Katzfuss & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 728-743, September.
  52. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  53. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2021. "Partisan bias in inflation expectations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 513-536, March.
  54. Joris Wauters & Zivile Zekaite & Garo Garabedian, 2024. "Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations," Working Paper Research 449, National Bank of Belgium.
  55. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
  56. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
  57. Michael P. Clements, 2011. "An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 207-220, February.
  58. Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 52-66.
  59. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies," Working Papers 2018-11, Swiss National Bank.
  60. Xiaoxiao Niu & Nigel Harvey, 2022. "Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3-4), September.
  61. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  62. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
  63. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0727, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  64. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Mary A. Burke & Ali Ozdagli, 2023. "Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 948-961, July.
  66. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  67. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
  68. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393.
  69. Conrad, Christian, 2017. "When does information on forecast variance improve the performance of a combined forecast?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168200, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  70. Claudia Neri, 2015. "Eliciting beliefs in continuous-choice games: a double auction experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(4), pages 569-608, December.
  71. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  72. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  73. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," IMFS Working Paper Series 169, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  74. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  75. Tobias Fissler & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2019. "Evaluating Range Value at Risk Forecasts," Papers 1902.04489, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
  76. Meyer, Steffen & Uhr, Charline, 2024. "Ambiguity and private investors’ behavior after forced fund liquidations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  77. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
  78. João Valle e Azevedo, 2011. "Rational vs. professional forecasts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  79. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
  80. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
  81. Sydnee Caldwell & Scott Nelson & Daniel Waldinger, 2023. "Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 352-376, April.
  82. Koşar, Gizem & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2023. "Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 16013, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  83. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
  84. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
  85. Annekatrin Schrenker, 2022. "Do Women Expect Wage Cuts for Part-time Work?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2024, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  86. Tobias Fissler & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2022. "Sensitivity Measures Based on Scoring Functions," Papers 2203.00460, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
  87. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian C. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2023. "The impact of supply chain disruptions on business expectations during the pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  88. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  89. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  90. Philip Hans Franses & Max Welz, 2022. "Evaluating heterogeneous forecasts for vintages of macroeconomic variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 829-839, July.
  91. Andreas Dibiasi & David Iselin, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2113-2141, October.
  92. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
  93. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  94. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
  95. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
  96. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 338-354.
  97. Nikola Mirkov & Andreas Steinhauer, 2014. "Are subjective distributions in inflation expectations symmetric?," ECON - Working Papers 173, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  98. Ben-David, Itzhak & Fermand, Elyas & Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Li, Geng, 2018. "Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior," Working Paper Series 2018-25, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  99. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  100. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
  101. Fissler Tobias & Ziegel Johanna F., 2021. "On the elicitability of range value at risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 38(1-2), pages 25-46, January.
  102. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  103. Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  104. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
  105. Jonas Dovern & Geoff Kenny, 2020. "Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 309-347, October.
  106. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.
  107. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  108. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  109. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
  110. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
  111. Manski, Charles F. & Neri, Claudia, 2013. "First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 232-254.
  112. Schrenker, Annekatrin, 2023. "Do women expect wage cuts for part-time work?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 80, pages 1-23.
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  114. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
  115. Tobias Fissler & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2015. "Higher order elicitability and Osband's principle," Papers 1503.08123, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
  116. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  117. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  118. Werner Ehm & Tilmann Gneiting & Alexander Jordan & Fabian Krüger, 2016. "Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 505-562, June.
  119. Sarah Miller & Patrick Sabourin, 2023. "What consistent responses on future inflation by consumers can reveal," Discussion Papers 2023-7, Bank of Canada.
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  121. Anna van der Schors & Rob Alessie & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2007. "Home and mortgage ownership of the Dutch elderly; explaining cohort, time and age effects," CPB Discussion Paper 77.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  122. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
  123. Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  124. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  125. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  126. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2012. "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 27(3), pages 115-132.
  127. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
  128. Carola Binder & Tucker S. Mcelroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2022. "The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 39-71, February.
  129. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  130. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  131. Charemza, Wojciech & Díaz, Carlos & Makarova, Svetlana, 2019. "Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 994-1007.
  132. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  133. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
  134. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  135. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2022. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
  136. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  137. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  138. James Ming Chen, 2018. "On Exactitude in Financial Regulation: Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Expectiles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.
  139. Schrenker, Annekatrin, 2023. "Do women expect wage cuts for part-time work?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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  163. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
  164. Taro Ikeda, 2013. "Asymmetric forecasting and commitment policy in a robust control problem," Discussion Papers 1306, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
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