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Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

Author

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  • Gizem Koşar

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA; CESifo)

  • Wilbert van der Klaauw

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

Abstract

In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper analyzes these perceptions of earnings and employment risks using rich monthly panel data. It documents considerable individual heterogeneity in expected earnings growth and earnings growth uncertainty and in the perceived likelihood of a voluntary and involuntary job exit. We examine how these expectations evolve over the working life and the business cycle, and how they co-vary with expectations about the macro economy. Our analysis provides novel evidence on the perceived persistence in earnings growth shocks and on the association between future earnings and spending growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2023. "Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Working Paper series 23-05, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:23-05
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    2. Kathrin Ellieroth & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 094, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations data; Beliefs; Household surveys; Strategic Survey Questions; Labor Market Uncertainty; Wage Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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