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Extending the procedure of Engelberg et al. (2009) to surveys with varying interval-widths

Author

Listed:
  • Becker, Christoph
  • Dürsch, Peter
  • Eife, Thomas A.
  • Glas, Alexander

Abstract

The approach by Engelberg, Manski, and Williams (2009) to convert probabilistic survey responses into continuous probability distributions implicitly assumes that the question intervals are equally wide. Almost all recently established household surveys have intervals of varying widths. Applying the standard approach to surveys with varying widths gives implausible and potentially misleading results. This note shows how the approach of Engelberg et al. (2009) can be adjusted to account for intervals of unequal width.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2022. "Extending the procedure of Engelberg et al. (2009) to surveys with varying interval-widths," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2022, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:052022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    2. Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0727, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey methods; probabilistic questions; density forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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