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A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates

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  • David R. Rappange

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Job van Exel

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Werner B. F. Brouwer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

Understanding subjective longevity expectations is important, but measurement is not straightforward. Two common elicitation formats are the direct measurement of a subjective point estimate of life expectancy and the assessment of survival probabilities to a range of target ages. This study presents one of the few direct comparisons of these two methods. Results from a representative sample of the Dutch population indicate that respondents on average gave higher estimates of longevity using survival probabilities (83.6 years) compared to point estimates (80.2 years). Individual differences between elicitation methods were smaller for younger respondents and for respondents with a higher socioeconomic status. The correlation between the subjective longevity estimations was moderate, but their associations with respondents’ characteristics were similar. Our results are in line with existing literature and suggest that findings from both elicitation methods may not be directly comparable, especially in certain subgroups of the population. Implications of inconsistent and focal point answers, rounding and anchoring require further attention. More research on the measurement of subjective expectations is required.

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:18:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10198-015-0754-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0754-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Arthur Van Soest, 2014. "Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 567-585, June.
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    2. Dong Chen & Dennis Petrie & Kam Tang & Dongjie Wu, 2020. "Private Information and Misinformation in Subjective Life Expectancy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1061-1083, December.

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