Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/s/wly/fufsci.html
Content
December 2024, Volume 6, Issue 4
- e188 Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures
by Liudmila Sivetc - e189 Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data
by Gabriela F. Nane & Roger M. Cooke - e190 Time and futures. Analysis of time‐needs in futures research
by Veli Virmajoki & Mika‐Petri Laakkonen - e191 Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment
by Keishiro Hara & Yukari Fuchigami & Takanobu Arai & Yutaka Nomaguchi - e192 A review of the future: A very short introduction
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Alexis Ordess - e193 Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis
by Philip Hans Franses - e194 Simulation‐based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering
by Patrick Steinmann & Koen van der Zwet & Bas Keijser
September 2024, Volume 6, Issue 3
- e179 Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty
by Leena Ilmola‐Sheppard & Phillip White - e180 Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach
by Rick Szostak - e181 Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036
by Elina Hiltunen & Aki‐Mauri Huhtinen - e182 Arts‐based approaches for futures workshops: Creating and interpreting artistic futures images
by Kai Lehikoinen & Satu Tuittila - e183 Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research
by Veli Virmajoki & Mika‐Petri Laakkonen - e184 Simplification errors in predictive models
by Barbara L. van Veen & J. Roland Ortt
June 2024, Volume 6, Issue 2
- e175 Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London
by Pauli Komonen & Susanne Jacobson - e176 The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on
by Adam Vigdor Gordon - e177 Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app
by Ross Gruetzemacher & Kang Bok Lee & David Paradice - e178 Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?
by Theresa C. Schropp & Jan Oliver Schwarz & Fabian Buder
March 2024, Volume 6, Issue 1
- e157 Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment
by Philip E. Tetlock & Christopher Karvetski & Ville A. Satopää & Kevin Chen - e165 A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis
by Juho Roponen & Ahti Salo - e166 What is predictable? A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
by Daniel Treisman - e168 Nuclear cascades or more of the same? Why meliorists may have gotten it right: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
by Etel Solingen - e170 Understanding the origins of foresight—How it has shaped our minds and societies
by Björn M. Persson - e171 Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
by Paul Poast - e172 Quality indicators for Delphi studies
by Jon Landeta & Aitziber Lertxundi - e173 Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
by Philip E. Tetlock & Christopher Karvetski & Ville A. Satopää & Kevin Chen - e174 Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience
by Martin Kunc
September 2023, Volume 5, Issue 3-4
- e154 Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession
by Efstathios Tapinos & Graham Leask & Mike Brown - e155 Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform
by Yuri Calleo & Simone Di Zio & Francesco Pilla - e158 Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight
by Alex Fergnani - e163 Designing research strategy and technology innovation for sustainability by adopting “imaginary future generations”—A case study using metallurgy
by Keishiro Hara & Iori Miura & Masanori Suzuki & Toshihiro Tanaka - e164 Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge
by John J. Oliver - e167 A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios
by Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole
June 2023, Volume 5, Issue 2
- e144 Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight
by Per Dannemand Andersen - e146 The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning
by James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal - e147 On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e148 AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning
by Matthew J. Spaniol & Nicholas J. Rowland - e150 Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)
by Shardul S. Phadnis - e151 The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99
by Nicholas Glunt & Jazzmine McCauley & Nicholas J. Rowland & Shanette Wahor & Alexander B. Kinney & Nathan E. Kruis - e152 On the boundaries of experimental research on scenario planning: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)
by Ahti Salo - e153 Exploring scenario planning through controlled experimentation: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e156 The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply
by James Derbyshire & Mandeep K. Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal
March 2023, Volume 5, Issue 1
- e136 Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis
by Carlos E. Barbosa & Yuri Lima & Matheus Emerick & Fabio Ferman & Fernanda C. Ribeiro & Jano Moreira de Souza - e139 Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence
by Roger M. Cooke - e141 Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city
by Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki - e143 Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness: A supply‐side perspective
by Mohammad Nematpour & Masood Khodadadi & Sarasadat Makian & Mohammad Ghaffari - e145 The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight
by Brent Mills & Alex Wilner - e149 Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris
by David J. Grüning
September 2022, Volume 4, Issue 3-4
- e120 The force that rules the world: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)
by Heiko A. von der Gracht - e121 Cocreating futures—A response to Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, “Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt”
by Angela Wilkinson & Betty S. Flowers - e131 Conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt: Reflections on six expert commentaries
by Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy & David Tuckett - e137 Synthesis of human and artificial intelligence: Review of “How to stay smart in a smart world: Why human intelligence still beats algorithms” by Gerd Gigerenzer
by David J. Grüning - e140 Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Cheltenham, UK & Northampton, MA, USA, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022, ix + 176 pp. ISBN 9781800376793 (hardback); 9781800376809 (ebook); 9781800376816 (paperback)
by Nicholas J. Rowland - FFO2111 Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt
by Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy & David Tuckett - FFO2117 Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability, and conviction: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)
by James Derbyshire - FFO2122 Commentary on "Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt" by Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)
by John Kay - FFO2124 Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy
by Xiaoxiao Niu & Nigel Harvey - FFO2125 Leaving the path of optimality calculation: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, 2021: Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt
by Jens Beckert - FFO2126 A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector
by Ramachandran Kannan & Evangelos Panos & Stefan Hirschberg & Tom Kober - FFO2127 Deepening the conversation about the role of emotions and affective processes as barriers and enablers of decision making under uncertainty: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)
by Gerard P. Hodgkinson & Mark P. Healey
June 2022, Volume 4, Issue 2
- e116 Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios
by Kristian Skånberg & Åsa Svenfelt - e119 What about the future? New perspectives on planning, forecasting and complexity by Fred Phillips
by Riccardo Vecchiato - e2103 Using cross‐impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment
by Ahti Salo & Edoardo Tosoni & Juho Roponen & Derek W. Bunn - e2109 Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management
by Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić - e2118 A critical evaluation of 42, large‐scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys
by Ian Belton & Kerstin Cuhls & George Wright
March 2022, Volume 4, Issue 1
- e99 New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach
by Amber Geurts & Ralph Gutknecht & Philine Warnke & Arjen Goetheer & Elna Schirrmeister & Babette Bakker & Svetlana Meissner - e101 Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study
by Tobias Meyer & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Evi Hartmann - e102 The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e105 From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol
by Jan Oliver Schwarz - e106 “It depends on the client”—Kees van der Heijden and client‐centric scenario planning: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021
by Rafael Ramirez - e107 What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Heiko A. von der Gracht - e108 Start‐ups and the art of ignoring the future: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021
by Rixa Georgi‐Kröhl - e110 Kees van der Heijden, a personal reflection: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021
by Trudi Lang - e112 Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Robert Fildes - e113 A timely (and timeless) blend of theory and practice: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Gary Bowman - e114 Professor Kees van der Heijden: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Ronald M. Bradfield - e115 From Shell engineer to social architect and thought leader: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e123 The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
by Gerard P. Hodgkinson - e128 Robust action and scenarios: A rejoinder
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol
September 2021, Volume 3, Issue 3-4
- e61 The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it
by Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack - e66 The reception of theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e67 A positive future for futures and foresight science needs fierce competition in the marketplace of ideas: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by David R. Mandel - e69 Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by Matti Minkkinen - e72 Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021
by Shardul Sharad Phadnis - e73 Developing the needed scientific theory will not be easy: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by Ahti Salo - e74 Theory development in foresight research: Commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e76 Resistance to hegemony in theorising scenario methods: A manifesto in response to Fergnani and Chermack, 2021
by George Cairns - e77 Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process
by Zsuzsanna Géring & Gábor Király & Réka Tamássy - e79 Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani & Chermack, 2021
by Gerard P. Hodgkinson - e88 A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by Christopher Münch & Heiko A. von der Gracht - e91 Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021
by Yusuke Kishita & Toshiki Kusaka & Yuji Mizuno & Yasushi Umeda - e95 Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95)
by Alexander B. Kinney - e96 Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios
by Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney - e97 Toward a science of futures and foresight: Response to 10 experts' commentaries
by Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack - e98 Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study
by David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin
June 2021, Volume 3, Issue 2
- e62 Scenario planning as a strategy process to foster supply chain adaptability: theoretical framework and longitudinal case
by Shardul Sharad Phadnis & Inga‐Lena Darkow - e64 The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute‐force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting
by Ian S. Lustick & Philip E. Tetlock - e65 Reviewing books for Futures & Foresight Science
by Nicholas J. Rowland - e68 Double death of socialist future
by Andrzej W. Nowak - e70 Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?
by Matthew J. Spaniol & Matthew J. Evans & Kristian Tranekær & Nicholas J. Rowland & Nick P. Atkinson - e71 Scoping the future with theory‐driven models—Where’s the uncertainty? : A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by David R. Mandel - e75 Has the COVID‐19 crisis changed our relationship to the future?
by Camille Jahel & Robin Bourgeois & Denis Pesche & Marie de Lattre‐Gasquet & Etienne Delay - e78 Agent‐based modeling complements intuitive logics: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Shardul Sharad Phadnis - e80 A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Martin Kunc - e81 Forecasts and decisions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Steven W. Popper & Robert J. Lempert & Paul K. Davis & Tim McDonald - e82 Why we simulate: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Steven A. Sloman - e83 Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e84 Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)
by Jan Kwakkel & Willem Auping - e85 How computer simulations enhance geopolitical decision‐making: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Amir Bagherpour - e86 Hidden dangers in complex computational structures: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Joseph Edward Russo - e87 Agent‐based models with qualitative data are thought experiments, not policy engines: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Robert Axtell & Joseph A. E. Shaheen - e89 Beware of Bureaucrats: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)
by Heiko A. von der Gracht - e90 Rejecting false prophets and blind faith in numbers: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Lawrence A. Kuznar - e92 The simulation manifesto: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
by Scott E. Page - e94 Experimental history: The slow, painful birth of a new field. Rejoinder to commentaries on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)
by Ian S. Lustick & Philip E. Tetlock
March 2021, Volume 3, Issue 1
- e37 On inquiry in futures and foresight science
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e56 Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior
by Christoph Markmann & Alexander Spickermann & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Alexander Brem - FFO258 Scenarios as narratives
by Lee Roy Beach - FFO260 Imagining democratic societies of the future: Insights from a foresight study
by Lucia Vesnic‐Alujevic - FFO263 Knowledge creation and mobility in and through futures workshops
by Hanna Heino
September 2020, Volume 2, Issue 3-4
- e32 Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach
by Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay - e34 A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19
by George Cairns & George Wright - e35 How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e38 Can we accelerate learning from history? South Africa then and now: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Philip E. Tetlock - e39 Studies past and future of the past and future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by David R. Mandel - e40 A modeler's perspective: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Martin Kunc - e41 Intensifying intellectual traffic between history and futures studies: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e42 Scenarios as narrative past and future: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Lee Roy Beach - e43 The brakes of precedent and gears of emergence: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Adam V. Gordon - e44 A cognitive science perspective on historical narratives and future scenarios: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by J. Edward Russo - e45 History can reject teleology; not so, scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Thomas Donaldson - e46 How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by George Cairns - e47 History and scenario planning: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by James Derbyshire - e48 Historian's pasts and scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by David MacLaren McDonald - e49 Mechanics of the future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Heiko A. von der Gracht - e50 A few epistemological thoughts on linking history and scenarios: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Liam Fahey - e51 Past‐future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Dilek Önkal & Shari De Baets - e52 Foresight, hindsight and postcolonial thought: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Eilidh Wright - e53 Future‐ography
by David J. Staley - e54 The Mont Fleur scenarios and particular histories: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Pieter le Roux - e55 Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020
by Johann Peter Murmann - e57 Thematic reflections on 18 expert commentaries
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker
June 2020, Volume 2, Issue 2
- e28 Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities
by Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach - e29 Does the facilitator of a scenario development activity need substantive knowledge of the focal topic?
by George Wright & George Cairns - e30 Scenario planning in science‐centric organizations
by Rafael Ramirez & Ciaran McGinley & Jenni Rissanen - e31 Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes
by Elna Schirrmeister & Anne‐Louise Göhring & Philine Warnke
March 2020, Volume 2, Issue 1
- e23 Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game
by Kerstin E. Cuhls - e24 Determinants of organizational vigilance: Leadership, foresight, and adaptation in three sectors
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker & George S. Day - e25 Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research
by Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do - e27 Can education transform?: Contradictions between the emerging future and the walled past
by Sohail Inayatullah
June 2019, Volume 1, Issue 2
- e8 A generalized many‐objective optimization approach for scenario discovery
by Jan H. Kwakkel - e9 Effectiveness of Delphi‐ and scenario planning‐like processes in enabling organizational adaptation: A simulation‐based comparison
by Shardul S. Phadnis - e11 Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures
by Ilkka Tuomi - e13 Response to Spaniol and Rowland: “Defining Scenario”
by Thomas J. Chermack - e15 Public understanding of futures & foresight science: A reply to Chermack’s response
by Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol - e16 Scenario planning in the analytic hierarchy process
by Ian Durbach - e17 Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future
by Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson
March 2019, Volume 1, Issue 1
- e1 Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool
by James Derbyshire - e2 About “Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st century,” edited by Riel Miller
by Robin Bourgeois - e3 Defining scenario
by Matthew J. Spaniol & Nicholas J. Rowland - e4 Submission and citation practices in Futures & Foresight Science and our commitment to integrity and ethics
by Graham Russel & George Wright - e5 Attention and foresight in organizations
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker - e6 Why should we understand the future and how can we do it?
by Joni Karjalainen & Sirkka Heinonen - e7 The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: Lines versus points
by Zoe Theocharis & Leonard A. Smith & Nigel Harvey - e10 Making scenario interventions matter: Exploring issues of power and rationality
by George Cairns & George Wright - e12 A welcome from the Editors
by George Wright & George Cairns & Heiko von der Gracht