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Narratives about the macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Andre, Peter
  • Haaland, Ingar
  • Roth, Christopher
  • Wiederholt, Mirko
  • Wohlfart, Johannes

Abstract

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. Households' narratives are strongly heterogeneous, coarser than experts' narratives, focus more on the supply side than on the demand side, and often feature politically loaded explanations. Households' narratives matter for their inflation expectation formation, which we demonstrate with descriptive survey data and a series of experiments. Informed by these findings, we incorporate narratives into an otherwise conventional New Keynesian model and demonstrate their importance for aggregate outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre, Peter & Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher & Wiederholt, Mirko & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2024. "Narratives about the macroeconomy," SAFE Working Paper Series 426, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:302567
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4947636
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    2. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-1322, December.
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    4. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
    5. Akerlof, George A. & Snower, Dennis J., 2016. "Bread and bullets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PB), pages 58-71.
    6. Benabou, Roland & Falk, Armin & Tirole, Jean, 2018. "Narratives, Imperatives, and Moral Reasoning," IZA Discussion Papers 11665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2021. "Using Models to Persuade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 276-323, January.
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    9. Pedro Bordalo & John J. Conlon & Nicola Gennaioli & Spencer Yongwook Kwon & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "How People Use Statistics," NBER Working Papers 31631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Akerlof, George A. & Snower, Dennis J., 2016. "Bread and bullets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PB), pages 58-71.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Narratives; Expectation Formation; Causal Reasoning; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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