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Financial Analysts and the False Consensus Effect

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  • JARED WILLIAMS

Abstract

Social psychologists have documented a tendency for people to overestimate their similarity to others. I investigate whether financial analysts' forecast errors are consistent with this bias. I model the bias by assuming analysts overestimate the correlation of the private signals they receive about a firm's future earnings. My model predicts a positive relationship between (i) the likelihood of an analyst's revised forecast being too close to his earlier forecast and (ii) the number of analysts issuing forecasts during the time interval between his two forecasts. I empirically confirm this prediction and consider several alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared Williams, 2013. "Financial Analysts and the False Consensus Effect," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 855-907, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:51:y:2013:i:4:p:855-907
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Melquiades Pereira de Lima Júnior, 2017. "Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 14(2), pages 133-159, March.
    3. Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch & Antonio Rosato, 2024. "Quality Is in the Eye of the Beholder: Taste Projection in Markets with Observational Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(11), pages 3746-3787, November.
    4. Marinelli, Carlo & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2014. "On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 39-60.
    5. Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
    6. Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch & Antonio Rosato, 2024. "Quality Is in the Eye of the Beholder: Taste Projection in Markets with Observational Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(11), pages 3746-3787, November.

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