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How do people view wage and price inflation?

Author

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  • Jain, Monica
  • Kostyshyna, Olena
  • Zhang, Xu

Abstract

Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4–2023Q2, we study wage growth expectations and their link with inflation expectations. We document novel facts about wage growth expectations and the uncertainty around them. Households associate higher wage growth with a stronger economy. The link between wage and inflation expectations is weak, but stronger during the high-inflation period, in tighter labour markets, among new hires, for workers with above-inflation wage gains or higher levels of education or income. Uncertainty about wage gains is strongly positively linked to uncertainty about expected inflation, particularly during the high-inflation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jain, Monica & Kostyshyna, Olena & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "How do people view wage and price inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:145:y:2024:i:c:s0304393224000059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.01.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian & Möhrle, Sascha, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," IZA Discussion Papers 17269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Olena Kostyshyna & Maude Ouellet, 2024. "Household Food Inflation in Canada," Staff Working Papers 24-33, Bank of Canada.
    3. Hassan Afrouzi & Alexander Dietrich & Kristian Myrseth & Romanos Priftis & Raphael Schoenle, 2024. "Inflation Preferences," NBER Working Papers 32379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Janet Hua Jiang & Rupal Kamdar & Kelin Lu & Daniela Puzzello, 2024. "How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms," CAEPR Working Papers 2024-004 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    5. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage expectations; Inflation expectations; Uncertainty; Consumer surveys; Wage-price spiral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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