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Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility

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  1. Fallible preferences & universities
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2010-10-18 20:04:10

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Cited by:

  1. David M. Cutler & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Tom Vogl, 2008. "Socioeconomic Status and Health: Dimensions and Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 14333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Frey, Bruno S. & Stutzer, Alois, 2010. "Recent Advances in the Economics of Individual Subjective Well-Being," Working papers 2010/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  6. Fabra, Natalia & Motta, Massimo & Peitz, Martin, 2022. "Learning from electricity markets: How to design a resilience strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  7. Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
  8. Katharina Dowling & Daniel Guhl & Daniel Klapper & Martin Spann & Lucas Stich & Narine Yegoryan, 2020. "Behavioral biases in marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 449-477, May.
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  46. Sachiko Kuroda & Isamu Yamamoto, 2019. "Why Do People Overwork at the Risk of Impairing Mental Health?," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 1519-1538, June.
  47. Alex Imas & Sally Sadoff & Anya Samek, 2017. "Do People Anticipate Loss Aversion?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1271-1284, May.
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  49. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M. & Oppewal, Harmen & Lancsar, Emily, 2021. "Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part II. Conceptualisation of external validity, sources and explanations of bias and effectiveness of mitigation methods," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
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  51. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
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  57. Mehmet Kutluay & Roy Brouwer & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Valuing malaria morbidity: results from a global meta-analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 301-321, July.
  58. Frey, Bruno S. & Benesch, Christine & Stutzer, Alois, 2007. "Does watching TV make us happy?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 283-313, June.
  59. Zhang Wei, 2012. "Endogenous Preferences and Dynamic Contract Design," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, May.
  60. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2007. "Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1047-1073, September.
  61. Carlin, Bruce I. & Robinson, David T., 2009. "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas: Evidence from blackjack tables," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(5), pages 385-396, August.
  62. Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch & Marco Pagnozzi & Antonio Rosato, 2021. "Projection of Private Values in Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3256-3298, October.
  63. Philippe Jehiel & Andrew Lilico, 2010. "Smoking Today and Stopping Tomorrow: a Limited Foresight Perspective," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 141-164, June.
  64. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Risky Behavior among Youths: Some Issues from Behavioral Economics," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 29-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  66. Jaspers, Esther, 2018. "Opening up on consumer materialism," Other publications TiSEM a21cb1c8-5af1-46cc-9ea0-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  67. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
  68. Pan He & Pengfei Liu & Yueming (Lucy) Qiu & Lufan Liu, 2022. "The weather affects air conditioner purchases to fill the energy efficiency gap," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
  69. David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2002. "An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 379-421, September.
  70. Bruno Frey & Alois Stutzer, 2014. "Economic Consequences of Mispredicting Utility," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 937-956, August.
  71. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2008. "Happiness Adaptation to Income beyond "Basic Needs"," NBER Working Papers 14539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Pleshcheva, Vlada & Klapper, Daniel & Dannewald, Till, 2019. "On Factors of Consumer Heterogeneity in (Mis)Valuation of Future Energy Costs: Evidence for the German Automobile Market," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 140, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  73. Carla Susana A. Assuad, 2020. "Understanding Rationality in Sustainable Development Decision-Making: Unfolding the Motivations for Action," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1086-1119, September.
  74. Uri Gneezy & Alex Imas & Kristóf Madarász, 2012. "Conscience Accounting: Emotional Dynamics and Social Behavior," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 563, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
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  77. Acland, Dan & Levy, Matthew R., 2015. "Naiveté, projection bias, and habit formation in gym attendance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  79. David A. Weisbach, 2008. "What Does Happiness Research Tell Us About Taxation?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 293-324, June.
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  304. Attari, Shahzeen Z. & Schoen, Mary & Davidson, Cliff I. & DeKay, Michael L. & Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & Dawes, Robyn & Small, Mitchell J., 2009. "Preferences for change: Do individuals prefer voluntary actions, soft regulations, or hard regulations to decrease fossil fuel consumption?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1701-1710, April.
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  315. Michel, Christian, 2016. "Market Regulation of Voluntary Add-on Contracts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145892, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  316. Innocenti, Stefania & Clark, Gordon L. & McGill, Sarah & Cuñado, Juncal, 2019. "The effect of past health events on intentions to purchase insurance: Evidence from 11 countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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  320. Sebastian Krugel & Matthias Uhl, 2021. "The Behavioral Economics of Intrapersonal Conflict: A Critical Assessment," Papers 2101.12526, arXiv.org.
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  327. Sophie Bienenstock & Maïva Ropaul, 2018. "On the benefits of being naive: the choice of contract duration with projection bias," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 469-496, June.
  328. Angelo Petralia, 2024. "Harmful choices," Papers 2408.01317, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  329. Gerritsen, Aart, 2016. "Optimal taxation when people do not maximize well-being," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 122-139.
  330. Sven Hoeppner, 2014. "The unintended consequence of doorstep consumer protection: surprise, reciprocation, and consistency," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 247-276, October.
  331. Peera Tangtammaruk,, 2017. "An assessment of smoking and non-smoking student preferences for the Thai smoking warning signs," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(5), pages 591-603, December.
  332. Liebe, Ulf & Glenk, Klaus & von Meyer-Höfer, Marie & Spiller, Achim, 2019. "A web survey application of real choice experiments," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  333. van den Bijgaart, Inge, 2016. "Essays in environmental economics and policy," Other publications TiSEM 298bee2a-cb08-4173-9fe1-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  335. Robert J. Meyer & Shenghui Zhao & Jin K. Han, 2008. "Biases in Valuation vs. Usage of Innovative Product Features," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 1083-1096, 11-12.
  336. Maria Alessandra Antonelli & Valeria De Bonis & Angelo Castaldo & Alessandrao Gandolfo, 2022. "Sin goods taxation: an encompassing model," Public Finance Research Papers 52, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome.
  337. Daniel A Newark, 2020. "Desire and pleasure in choice," Rationality and Society, , vol. 32(2), pages 168-196, May.
  338. Maggie Rong Hu & Adrian D. Lee, 2020. "Outshine to Outbid: Weather-Induced Sentiment and the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1440-1472, March.
  339. Alejandro Tatsuo Moreno Okuno, 2010. "Price competition in mixed strategies in markets with habit formation," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 7(1), pages 67-93, Julio - D.
  340. Nafziger, Julia & Kaiser, Jonas P. & Koch, Alexander K, 2021. "Self-Set Goals Are Effective Self-Regulation Tools -- Despite Goal Revision," CEPR Discussion Papers 15716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  342. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Bradley T. & Williams, Ryan B., 2017. "Price volatility and residential electricity decisions: Experimental evidence on the convergence of energy generating source," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 428-437.
  343. Gregory Besharov, 2004. "Second‐Best Considerations in Correcting Cognitive Biases," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 12-20, July.
  344. Aart Gerritsen, 2024. "Optimal nonlinear taxation: a simpler approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(2), pages 486-510, April.
  345. Makridis, Christos A. & Schloetzer, Jason D., 2023. "Extreme local temperatures lower expressed sentiment about U.S. economic conditions with implications for the stock returns of local firms," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  346. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2016. "Commitment and Borrower Heterogeneity: Evidence from Revolving Consumer Credit," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145870, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  347. Benhabib, Jess & Bisin, Alberto, 2005. "Modeling internal commitment mechanisms and self-control: A neuroeconomics approach to consumption-saving decisions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 460-492, August.
  348. van den Bijgaart, I.M., 2017. "Too slow a change? Deep habits, consumption shifts and transitory tax," Working Papers in Economics 701, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  349. Ong, Qiyan & Theseira, Walter, 2016. "Does choosing jobs based on income risk lead to higher job satisfaction in the long run? Evidence from the natural experiment of German reunification," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 95-108.
  350. Krecik, Markus, 2024. "Preference dynamics: A procedurally rational model of time and effort allocation," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  351. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2013. "Focusing on the Focusing Illusion..," MPRA Paper 44366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  352. Brosio, Giorgio & Zanola, Roberto, 2006. "Can violence be rational? An empirical analysis of Colombia," POLIS Working Papers 74, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  353. Alex Mari & Andreina Mandelli & René Algesheimer, 2024. "Fear of Missing Uut (FOMO) on Emerging Technology: Biased and Unbiased Adoption Decision Making," Working Papers 401, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  354. Manel Baucells & Rakesh K. Sarin, 2010. "Predicting Utility Under Satiation and Habit Formation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 286-301, February.
  355. Welsch, Heinz & Kühling, Jan, 2011. "Are pro-environmental consumption choices utility-maximizing? Evidence from subjective well-being data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 75-87.
  356. Sok Chul Hong & Jungmin Lee, 2015. "People on the verge of death: evidence from impacts of celebrity suicides," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(7), pages 710-724, February.
  357. Loureiro, Maria L. & Rahmani, Djamal, 2013. "Calorie labeling and fast food choices in surveys and actual markets: some new behavioral results," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150622, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  358. Daniela Federici & Valentino Parisi & Francesco Ferrante, 2023. "Aspiration bias and job satisfaction of young Italian graduates," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 643-677, July.
  359. Momi Dahan & Udi Nisan, 2020. "Late Payments, Liquidity Constraints and the Mismatch between Due Dates and Paydays," CESifo Working Paper Series 8733, CESifo.
  360. Van Boven, Leaf & Loewenstein, George & Dunning, David, 2005. "The illusion of courage in social predictions: Underestimating the impact of fear of embarrassment on other people," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 130-141, March.
  361. Michael Williams, 2005. "Simulations of fundamental tax reform with irrational households," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11.
  362. Inderst, Roman & Tirosh, Gilad, 2015. "Refunds and returns in a vertically differentiated industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 44-51.
  363. Hardardottir, Hjördis, 2019. "Many Balls in the Air Make Time Fly: The Effect of Multitasking on Time Perception and Time Preferences," Working Papers 2019:11, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Sep 2019.
  364. Koch, Christian & Müller, Cornelius, 2022. "Tax Amnesties and the Insurance Effect: An Experimental Study," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112991, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2022.
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  366. Michal Skořepa, 2008. "Bližší pohled na užitek maximalizovaný ekonomickými subjekty [A closer look at utility maximised by economic agents]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 242-256.
  367. Matti Tuomala & Sanna Tenhunen, 2013. "On the design of an optimal non-linear tax/pension system with habit formation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(3), pages 485-512, June.
  368. Acland, Dan & Levy, Matthew, 2013. "Naivete, projection bias, and habit formation in gym attendance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 46827, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  369. Dunning, David & Fetchenhauer, Detlef & Schlösser, Thomas M., 2012. "Trust as a social and emotional act: Noneconomic considerations in trust behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 686-694.
  370. Bélyácz, Iván & Kovács, Kármen, 2018. "A birtoklási hatás megnyilvánulásának háttere és következményei. A kilátáselmélet alkalmazása fogyasztási döntésekre [Background and consequences of the endowment effect. Applying prospect theory t," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 382-401.
  371. Andrew F Smith, 2014. "Political deliberation and the challenge of bounded rationality," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 269-291, August.
  372. Segovia, Michelle S. & Palma, Marco A. & Nayga, Rodolfo M., 2020. "Can episodic future thinking affect food choices?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 371-389.
  373. Joshua D. Woodard & Leslie Verteramo Chiu & Gabriel Power & Dmitry Vedenov & Steven Klose, 2017. "Factors Affecting Changes in Managerial Decisions," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 443-465, June.
  374. Matteo Foschi, 2016. "Contracting with Type-Dependent Naïveté," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/03, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
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