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Smoking today and stopping tomorrow: a limited foresight perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Jehiel

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Andrew Lilico

    (Europe Economics - Europe Economics)

Abstract

This article considers an intertemporal decision problem in which the agent has limited foresight. It offers an interpretation of why people may smoke when they are young--as a result of having a short horizon of foresight--and refrain from smoking when they get older--as a result of having better foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jehiel & Andrew Lilico, 2010. "Smoking today and stopping tomorrow: a limited foresight perspective," Post-Print halshs-00754440, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00754440
    DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifp028
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Jehiel, 2001. "Limited Foresight May Force Cooperation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 369-391.
    2. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    3. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice and Procrastination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 121-160.
    4. Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-957, July.
    5. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    7. Jehiel, Philippe, 1998. "Learning to Play Limited Forecast Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 274-298, February.
    8. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2007. "Harmful Addiction," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 147-172.
    9. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    10. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    11. Jeheil Phillippe, 1995. "Limited Horizon Forecast in Repeated Alternate Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 497-519, December.
    12. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur, 2012. "Smoking, Income and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Smoking Bans," Working Papers halshs-00664269, HAL.
    2. Fynn Kemper & Philipp Christoph Wichardt, 2021. "Procedurally Justifiable Strategies: Integrating Context Effects into Multistage Decision Making," CESifo Working Paper Series 9459, CESifo.
    3. Newall, Philip W.S. & Peacey, Mike W., 2021. "Pension behavior and policy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Méder, Zsombor Z. & Flesch, János & Peeters, Ronald, 2017. "Naiveté and sophistication in dynamic inconsistency," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 40-54.
    5. Andrew Leicester & Peter Levell, 2016. "Anti‐Smoking Policies and Smoker Well‐Being: Evidence from Britain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 224-257, June.
    6. Kemper, Fynn & Wichardt, Philipp C., 2021. "Procedurally justifiable strategies: Integrating context effects into multistage decision making," Kiel Working Papers 2202, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Miaoqing Yang & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2018. "The impact of public smoking bans on well‐being externalities: Evidence from a policy experiment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(3), pages 224-247, July.
    8. Sloan, Frank A. & Eldred, Lindsey M. & Xu, Yanzhi, 2014. "The behavioral economics of drunk driving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 64-81.
    9. Alisa Frik & Luigi Mittone, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Perceived Websites' Privacy Trustworthiness and Users' Purchase Intentions," CEEL Working Papers 1609, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounded rationality; Limited foresight; Short-sightedness; Smoking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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